https://www.moneyandbanking.com/custom-fred-tutorials daily 0.75 2015-12-01 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/custom-fred-tutorials/2014/12/1/plotting-the-taylor-rule-and-the-federal-funds-rate monthly 0.5 2015-12-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1417442819273-F64S58HZEDIZSNYS8BCI/image-asset.png FRED Tutorials - Plotting the Taylor Rule and the Federal Funds Rate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1417442875321-9ZV0BIAN99T51FI7VL2C/2.png FRED Tutorials - Plotting the Taylor Rule and the Federal Funds Rate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1417442915702-4R8Q9N751EH0X458KFWH/image-asset.png FRED Tutorials - Plotting the Taylor Rule and the Federal Funds Rate https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1417442952362-06UTIUPZJCITG6YA99NF/image-asset.png FRED Tutorials - Plotting the Taylor Rule and the Federal Funds Rate 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https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/590b4f0d725e25a26c44e338/1497538619224-2RMAZGCYT1BQJNV7TDQ3/20160916S1_Personal_Chef_Kristi_Brown_Plating_203.jpg Gallery - Margot Jones is a personal chef. About Margot → https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/590b4f0d725e25a26c44e338/1497538619224-2RMAZGCYT1BQJNV7TDQ3/20160916S1_Personal_Chef_Kristi_Brown_Plating_203.jpg Gallery - Margot Jones is a personal chef. About Margot → https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/590b4f0d725e25a26c44e338/1494427086301-CO08P4ZQH8X0UBFFZMU5/20160916S1_Personal_Chef_Kristi_Brown_Cutting_289.jpg Gallery - She specializes in a variety of food services. Learn More → https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/590b4f0d725e25a26c44e338/1494345298919-8PXZAKC91457B2OJKORO/20160916S1_Personal_Chef_Kristi_Brown_Hands_285.jpg Gallery - Browse her favorite original recipes. Sample Menu → https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/590b4f0d725e25a26c44e338/1494351342393-Z80NITNBIHSJV9XM4RZE/20160916S1_Personal_Chef_Kristi_Brown_Plating_087.jpg Gallery - Schedule a consultation. Let's Eat → https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary daily 0.75 2026-02-08 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2026/2/8/the-feds-reserve-management-at-a-crossroads monthly 0.5 2026-02-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1bc8295c-fe8c-465f-806e-eeb239eda381/Market+for+Bank+Reserves+New.png Commentary - The Fed's Reserve Management at a Crossroads - Make it stand out Note: The horizontal portion of the red reserve demand curve is very slightly below the level of the interest on reserve balances. This pattern reflects the usual constellation of interest rates over the past five years. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/2efebe6b-367a-4fa4-80e4-ce9cc6f8d0d8/Repo+and+Reverse+Repo.png Commentary - The Fed's Reserve Management at a Crossroads - Make it stand out Note: The red line (quantity of repo) obscures very small amounts of reverse repo in the latter part of 2025. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/9/21/us-regulator-should-raise-not-lower-big-bank-capital-requirements monthly 0.5 2025-09-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/f237fd37-0f6e-497e-ac6b-00c1b601c439/Leverage+Ratio.png Commentary - U.S. Regulators should raise -- not lower -- big bank capital requirements - Make it stand out Notes: The chart shows the Tier 1 leverage ratio for the eight US banks designated as global systemically important banks. Shaded areas denote NBER-dated recessions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Bank Capital Analysis (4Q 2024, Chart 1). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/9/13/fed-division-of-powers-who-controls-monetary-policy monthly 0.5 2025-09-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/2baaacb9-85b3-436b-948d-56ca607adcd1/Table+2025-09-13.png Commentary - Fed division of powers: Who controls monetary policy? - Make it stand out Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/3bd704fa-66e7-46c6-9c21-7c9476886d21/Interest+Rates+2025-09-13.png Commentary - Fed division of powers: Who controls monetary policy? - Make it stand out Notes: The gap between the IORB and ON RRP rates – currently 15 basis points – mostly reflects the additional cost of FDIC insurance for a commercial bank that receives deposits and places the proceeds at the Fed to receive the IORB. The episodes during which the Treasury Bill rate falls below daily ON RRP rate reflect market expectations of a decline in Federal Reserve policy rates. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/8/24/new-cepr-policy-insight-crypto-tokenization-and-the-future-of-payments monthly 0.5 2025-08-24 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/8/16/are-stablecoins-really-the-future-of-payments monthly 0.5 2025-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a6611715-917f-4f37-816c-71fdef0d896c/USDC+Price+Collapse.png Commentary - Are stablecoins really the future of payments? - Make it stand out Source: Coinmarketcap.com. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/8ab58d47-7a50-4d7f-bc3b-8e33a34561b5/Stablecoin+Figure+2+--+table.png Commentary - Are stablecoins really the future of payments? - Make it stand out Source: Authors, except where stated. * Excise tax under Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) AML Anti-money laundering. ATF Anti-terrorist financing. KYC Know your customer. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/7/10/basel-endgame-bank-capital-requirements-and-the-future-of-international-standard-setting monthly 0.5 2025-07-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/31f7e44d-5d32-420a-91cd-007b36bd3a9d/Figure+1.png Commentary - Basel Endgame: Bank Capital Requirements and the Future of International Standard Setting - Make it stand out Notes: “Leverage Ratio: US GSIBs” is the Tier 1 leverage ratio for the eight US banks designated as global systemically important banks. The “Risk-weighted capital ratio: 12 large banks in the Americas" is the common equity tier 1 ratio for the consistent sample of 12 Category 1 banks in the Americas. Category 1 banks include, but are not limited to, the global systemically important banks. Shaded areas denote NBER-dated recessions. The fact that the two lines cross is a consequence of differences in the samples of banks. Sources: The source for the Leverage Ratio is Pellerin (2025, Chart 1). The source for the Risk-weighted capital ratio is Graph 17 in the Basel III Monitoring Report the Basel Committee (2024). Banks’ risk-weighted capital ratios are not available prior to 2012 because banks were not required to calculate their capital under Basel III standards before then. This sample of 12 banks likely includes a few banks from Canada and Brazil. However, it is the only consistent measure of risk-weighted capital ratios available over this full period. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/5/16/will-dollar-adjustment-be-smooth-or-not monthly 0.5 2025-05-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/544fa832-a7fa-4fa1-b2db-63062621def1/Real+Exchange+Rate.png Commentary - Will Dollar Adjustment Be Smooth or Not? - Make it stand out Notes: The series shows the narrow real effective exchange rate from 1980 to 1993 and the broad effective exchange rate from 1994 to March 2025. The narrow rate is spliced to the broad rate in January 1994. Sources: Bank for International Settlements and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a361a498-16b0-4c9c-9bb6-012580861e4a/US+NIIP.png Commentary - Will Dollar Adjustment Be Smooth or Not? - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/94c378df-2207-476f-a395-35743b281503/Primary+and+CA+Balances.png Commentary - Will Dollar Adjustment Be Smooth or Not? - Make it stand out Notes: The projections from 2024 to 2030 are from the IMF (current account) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, primary fiscal balance). The CBO projection (March 2025) assumes an extension of the 2017 tax cuts. The primary fiscal balance is the sum of the overall fiscal balance and net interest payments. Gray-shaded areas denote periods when real GDP fell below-year ago levels. Dashed lines represent projections. Sources: FRED, CBO and IMF. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/388a7117-9273-450c-95db-12004a158b32/Fiscal+deficit+and+unemployment.png Commentary - Will Dollar Adjustment Be Smooth or Not? - Make it stand out Notes: The dashed line is the fitted line for the period from 1974 to 2019 excluding the Reagan Administration years of 1982 to 1989. The years 1982 to 1989 are highlighted in blue, while the years 2020 to 2024 are highlighted in red. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/4/22/are-us-assets-losing-their-luster monthly 0.5 2025-04-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/b873879e-1507-4875-ae3e-e0f19103ff22/Dollar+Flight+Table.png Commentary - Are U.S. assets losing their luster? - Make it stand out Note: Dates of the peak and trough levels are shown in parentheses. Sources: FRED, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, CNBC, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/436abb10-520b-49b3-842d-845c852481c5/4-QuadrantChart.png Commentary - Are U.S. assets losing their luster? - Make it stand out Note: Calculations all use monthly averages, except for April 2025. The purple dot shows the change from the March 2025 average to the average from 1 April to 22 April 2025 and the red dot shows the change from the 1 April level to the 22 April level. The shaded area is a one standard-deviation confidence (68%) ellipse around the origin. The percentage share of observations that fell in each quadrant and that are more than one standard deviation from the origin is reported in each green rectangle. Due to rounding, these percentages do not add to 100%. Source: FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/4/13/trumps-tariffnado monthly 0.5 2025-04-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/7af18643-7805-47b8-a2fd-1eff11c82a92/Tariff+Rate+History.png Commentary - Trump's Tariffnado - Make it stand out Sources: Tax Foundation (data through 2024), Yale Budget Lab for April 9 and post-adjustment estimates. The latest estimate does not reflect the exclusion from tariffs of some electronics imports that was announced on April 12. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/17181cfd-3942-4869-9e3e-c58056f699b0/VIX.jpg Commentary - Trump's Tariffnado - Make it stand out Source: FRED through April 10, 2025. Yahoo Finance for April 11, 2025. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a236c0b7-3010-4b21-9402-cfef70252c51/Current+Account.png Commentary - Trump's Tariffnado - Make it stand out Notes: Gray shading denotes recessions. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/3/24/russian-sanctions-redux monthly 0.5 2025-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/b4183d5e-d720-484b-9b2e-f4777c094a6c/Figure+1+2025-03-23.png Commentary - Russian Sanctions Redux - Make it stand out Sources: FRED (Brent) and KSE Institute Russia Chartbook (Russian Export price). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/e98c1aad-f7d6-4eff-b520-084706328c16/Figure+2+2025-03-23.png Commentary - Russian Sanctions Redux - Make it stand out Sources: Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (interpolation of chart in billions of euros on page 5), FRED, and authors’ conversion from euros to U.S. dollars. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/4cfab462-8cfa-4516-9d34-770b09590cc5/Table+1+2025-03-23.png Commentary - Russian Sanctions Redux - Make it stand out Note: The “Other possible” row includes assets that may be held by United States ($20.8 billion) and Australia ($6.2 billion). The TOTAL includes “Other possible” funds. Source: Ziskina, Moiseienko, and Firestone, “Resolving Accountability over Russian State Assets: New Understandings of Jurisdiction and Policy Opportunities,” New Lines Institute, January 2025. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2025/2/15/euro-ironies monthly 0.5 2025-02-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a62b5d5b-737d-43b3-8fde-19190c86569e/Germany+Support+for+the+Euro.png Commentary - Euro Ironies - Make it stand out Source: Eurobarometer surveys here and here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/4b22420a-2e37-42e0-8f64-407e9ebe41c0/Germany+Real+GDP+and+Industrial+Production.png Commentary - Euro Ironies - Make it stand out Sources: FRED (real GDP) and Bundesbank (industrial production excluding construction). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/5cc5b7c8-8780-40d8-b2db-2b5dd834450c/Germany+Share+of+Bundestag+Seats.png Commentary - Euro Ironies - Make it stand out Notes and sources: Data through 2017 are from the German History in Documents and Images Project. Data for 2021 are from the Bundeswahlleiterin. Data for 2025 represent an average of five reported polls in the period from February 11 to February 14, rather than an average of seats in the Bundestag. The composition of far-left parties has changed over time; as of 2025, they include BSW and Die Linke. The only far-right party that entered the Bundestag during this period is the AfD, which was founded in 2013. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2024/11/15/on-ai-and-financial-stability-1 monthly 0.5 2024-11-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/9b3bb551-f037-46c1-9fb8-27ee98cc98a5/Table+1.png Commentary - On AI and Financial Stability - Make it stand out Note: Dates of initial invention are in parentheses. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2024/9/15/a-national-strategy-for-bitcoin-sell-it-all-now monthly 0.5 2024-10-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/5466bda7-8e99-40db-822d-1849a6355ca4/Crypto+Table+1+v2.png Commentary - A National Strategy for Bitcoin? Sell it all now! - Make it stand out Notes: The annualized return is based on the full period from the start to the end of the sample. The volatility is the standard deviation of four-week returns. The Sharpe ratio is the quotient of the average to the standard deviation of four-week returns. Stocks are the S&P 500, while bonds are AAA corporates. Sources: FRED, Yahoo Finance, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/cca92541-56c4-44e0-88e3-7ff779e48fec/Crypto+Chart+1.png Commentary - A National Strategy for Bitcoin? Sell it all now! - Make it stand out Notes: Equity volume includes NYSE and Nasdaq. Repo volume includes both centrally cleared and tri-party repo. While the Bitcoin line (red) appears to be zero, the monthly value of Bitcoin trading on exchanges in this period averaged $34 billion, compared to $4.1 trillion for U.S. stocks (blue) and $58.2 trillion for U.S. dollar repo (black). Sources: Bitcoinity.org, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Office of Financial Research, and World Federation of Exchanges. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2024/9/13/thoughts-on-the-fomcs-monetary-policy-strategy-review-part-4-communication monthly 0.5 2024-09-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/dc147770-5def-4540-adaa-42d941b7d5ea/Part+4+Chart+1.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review -- Part 4 of 4: Communication - Make it stand out Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2024/9/9/thoughts-on-the-fomcs-monetary-policy-strategy-review-part-3-policy-tools monthly 0.5 2024-09-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a8c62d7a-513d-41f5-8630-7de1510a2db4/Part+3+Chart+1.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review -- Part 3 of 4: Policy Tools - Make it stand out Source: Anderson and Na, Figure 3; and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/c0964371-4bb5-4822-b5b0-f436b18f9761/Part+3+Chart+2.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review -- Part 3 of 4: Policy Tools - Make it stand out Note: Centrally cleared data combines delivery versus payment (DVP) for specific securities with general collateral repo. Tri-party repo, which is not centrally cleared, excludes the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repo Operations. Source: Office of Financial Research and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/c950adac-e6ec-47a9-906c-4510411e7c0f/Part+3+Chart+3.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review -- Part 3 of 4: Policy Tools - Make it stand out Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, H.4.1 release and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2024/9/2/thoughts-on-the-fomcs-monetary-policy-strategy-part-2-is-2-percent-still-the-solution monthly 0.5 2024-09-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/d5efc0d1-9e64-4928-bcdf-33ca201b7646/Part+2+Chart+1.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review -- Part 2 of 4: Is 2 Percent Still the Solution? - Make it stand out Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/d0c2ba3c-a64c-4688-8183-dd2c40d2a323/Part+2+Chart+2.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review -- Part 2 of 4: Is 2 Percent Still the Solution? - Make it stand out Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Nominal Wage Rigidity Data. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2024/8/26/thoughts-on-the-fomcs-monetary-policy-strategy-review-part-1 monthly 0.5 2024-09-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/db15825d-36bf-4bcb-aecd-374c8370c0c5/Part+1+Chart+1.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review: Part 1 of 4 - Make it stand out Notes: The dashed line is a quarterly average of the daily effective federal funds rate. The shaded area is the excess of the effective federal funds rate (rff ) over the Taylor-rule-implied funds rate: rff – [2 + π + 0.5(π-2) + 0.5(u-u*)], where π is the percent change from a year ago of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index excluding food and energy (JCXFE), u is the unemployment rate (UNRATE), and u* is the noncyclical rate of unemployment (NROU). All data are quarterly from FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/3539636d-418c-46d6-9d03-77bb0005076c/Part+1+Chart+2.png Commentary - Thoughts on the FOMC's Monetary Policy Strategy Review: Part 1 of 4 - Make it stand out Notes: The chart plots the natural log of the personal consumption expenditures price Index (PCEPI), with January 1995=0 (solid red) along with a 2-percent inflation trend (dashed black) . Data are from FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2023/9/18/ten-precepts-for-21st-century-regulators monthly 0.5 2024-10-28 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2023/8/2/reforming-the-federal-home-loan-bank-system monthly 0.5 2023-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/5ed6d017-a202-4439-bb74-929147a82025/FHLB+Advances+and+Fed+Lending.png Commentary - Reforming the Federal Home Loan Bank System - Make it stand out Sources: Board of Governors, Financial Accounts of the United States, BOGZ1FL403069330Q and H.4.1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/03a48e3a-1591-48d6-8f69-e03e1199a5ee/Corrected+FHLB+Blog+Table+2023-12-06.png Commentary - Reforming the Federal Home Loan Bank System - Make it stand out *NY Community Bank owns Flagstar, which assumed substantially all deposits of Signature Bridge Bank. Sources: Advances are from Federal Home Loan Banks (2023) Table 12 and Federal Home Loan Banks (2023) Table 7. For total assets, with the exception of First Republic and TD Bank, the information is for March 31, 2023, and comes from 10-Q filings. For First Republic, the information is from “FDIC’s Supervision of First Republic Bank,” September 8, 2023. For TD Bank, the information is from “TD Bank Group Reports First Quarter 2023 Results: Report to Shareholders,” and is for January 31, 2023 (converted from Canadian to U.S. dollars using that day’s exchange rate). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2023/7/19/making-banking-safe monthly 0.5 2023-07-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/6ee41b88-d99d-4d57-bffb-6fdcd629bb61/Table+1+regulatory+reform+proposals.png Commentary - Making Banking Safe - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2023/7/17/nyu-stern-white-paper-svb-and-beyond-the-banking-stresses-of-2023 monthly 0.5 2023-07-18 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2023/5/1/the-future-of-deposit-insurance monthly 0.5 2023-05-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/d6d988c2-6526-4ed6-961b-a919e5c4e128/DIF+Losses.png Commentary - The Future of Deposit Insurance - Make it stand out Note: The dashed line red line is an estimate (as of May 1, 2023) of the 2023 losses of the deposit insurance fund based solely on the expected resolution costs of First Republic, Silicon Valley and Signature banks. Losses are deflated using the PCE chained price index (2022=100). Sources: FDIC 2022 Annual Report, FRED and authors’ 2023 estimate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/55a7aa6f-0809-4042-b5fe-911f3097021f/DIF+Size+and+Assessment+Rate.png Commentary - The Future of Deposit Insurance - Make it stand out Source: FDIC 2022 Annual Report. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2023/3/20/the-extraordinary-failures-exposed-by-silicon-valley-banks-collapse monthly 0.5 2023-03-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/be4f2c5a-f2cd-44af-bf70-77ed84d4a95a/SVB+Stock+Price+and+Adjusted+Leverage+Ratio.png Commentary - The Extraordinary Failures Exposed by Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse - Make it stand out Source: Yahoo finance, SEC, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/593a3cfa-1e12-4cb0-99b1-29c2f8f76698/Stressed+Leverage+Ratio+and+Uninsured+Deposit+Ratio+Scatter.png Commentary - The Extraordinary Failures Exposed by Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse - Make it stand out Note: For each bank, the stressed leverage ratio is computed as 5 percent times the end-2022 book value of assets minus SRISK, all divided by the book value of assets. This measure differs from the one in the previous chart, which is based entirely on accounting measures in SVB’s SEC filings. Sources: NYU Stern V-Lab, S&P, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2023/2/26/managing-disinflation monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/46ff4e16-436d-41a4-bc75-8dab5ed2d1ac/Disinflations.png Commentary - Managing Disinflation - Make it stand out Notes: Core PCE inflation is annual percent change of the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Trend inflation is a nine-quarter centered moving average of seasonally adjusted quarterly changes of the core PCE price index at annual rates. Sources: BEA and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/84a9d550-52e2-4037-b9be-f64d8d279c5a/Inflation+simulation+2020+to+2022.png Commentary - Managing Disinflation - Make it stand out Notes: The simulations are based on estimating two Phillips curve specifications (u gap and v/u gap) over two sample periods: stable inflation (1985 to 2019) and pre-pandemic (1962 to 2019). Sources: Barnichon, Bolhuis et al., BEA, BLS, and authors’ estimates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/e9774c4e-4b32-4320-8429-4cddda6806ef/Inflation+simulation+2022+to+2025.png Commentary - Managing Disinflation - Make it stand out Notes: The solid lines the medians from 10,000 sequences of shocks from the estimated residuals of the mode for each sample period. The shaded areas depict the interquartile range (from the 25th to the 75th percentile) of each distribution. Sources: Barnichon, Bolhuis et al., BEA, BLS, and authors’ estimates. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/12/21/let-crypto-burn monthly 0.5 2022-12-21 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/12/4/the-slippery-slope-of-a-higher-inflation-target-1 monthly 0.5 2022-12-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/419fccd0-9a9e-400f-98e3-891d03a8e6b0/Unemployment+Gap.png Commentary - The Slippery Slope of a Higher Inflation Target - Make it stand out Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/b2ddcaf6-83d3-4e32-91ba-018d39d7d965/Average+vs+STDEV+Inflation.png Commentary - The Slippery Slope of a Higher Inflation Target - Make it stand out Note: The sample of 121 countries includes those with average inflation up to 10% and with at least 10 annual observations. Three outliers are not depicted. Source: World Bank (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/0345424b-c732-4269-b067-28d222d31607/Threshold_Habit+2.png Commentary - The Slippery Slope of a Higher Inflation Target - Make it stand out Source: Figure 8 in Korenok, Munro and Chen, Inflation and attention thresholds, September 2022. The figure includes those 28 out of 37 countries in the Google Trends sample where the estimates showed either no or little inflation sensitivity of online search activity below the estimated threshold and marked sensitivity of search activity above that level. We thank Oleg Korenok, David Munro, and Jiayi Chen for graciously providing their data. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/11/14/tales-from-the-crypto monthly 0.5 2022-11-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/afca882c-df56-4158-af5d-a79872b6cbfd/CryptoMarketCap.png Commentary - Tales from the Crypt(o) - Make it stand out Source: Coinmetrics. Note that the levels here are somewhat lower than those from CoinMarketCap. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/11/8/financial-system-resilience-the-climate-change-edition monthly 0.5 2022-11-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/aa9fb99f-f7c9-418d-ad32-09c0624a99ba/Marginal+S+and+C+Risk+Top+US+Firms.png Commentary - Financial System Resilience: The Climate Change Edition - Make it stand out Source: NYU V-Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/4656748a-59dc-4c96-911a-7268e6ebc9cb/Camp+Fire+Marginal+CRISK+Increases.png Commentary - Financial System Resilience: The Climate Change Edition - Make it stand out Source: NYU V-Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/afb3e255-cac7-4cb4-a83d-ff1e8f0af065/CRISK+Exposure.png Commentary - Financial System Resilience: The Climate Change Edition - Make it stand out Source: NYU V-Lab and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/10/15/to-improve-fed-policy-improve-communications monthly 0.5 2022-10-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/e961aa02-17d4-494f-8019-0b1753e0b585/Policy_Balance.png Commentary - To improve Fed policy, improve communications - Make it stand out Notes: Trend inflation is measured by the annual percent change of the price index of personal consumption expenditure excluding food and energy. The deviation from target subtracts 2 percentage points from this measure. The unemployment gap shows the actual minus the noncyclical rate of unemployment (NROU). Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/9c16be16-8f99-4bc8-be71-728f6d274255/Policy+Rate+and+2-Yr-Ahead+Projections.png Commentary - To improve Fed policy, improve communications - Make it stand out Notes: The dashed line shows the actual federal funds rates for the end of each year. The red line shows the two-year earlier median SEP projection of the end-year federal funds rate. For example, the projections shown in 2014 are from the 2012 SEPs. The pink-shaded area is the interquartile range of the two-year earlier SEP projections, while the gray-shaded area displays the full range of the projections. The black shaded circles are the probability-weighted averages of the CME FedWatch tool projections (based on Fed Fund futures prices as of October 14, 2022) for December 2022 and 2023, respectively. Note that “two years earlier” is only an approximation: the SEP projection is for the end of a calendar year, so the horizon is about two years for each December projection, but somewhat longer for each March, June and September projection. The gap reflects that there was no SEP at the start of the pandemic shutdown in March 2020. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/8/23/central-banks-new-frontier-interventions-in-private-securities-markets monthly 0.5 2022-08-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/b6e926a5-04c3-471b-b502-4c79e220c1a2/CB+Purchases+Table.png Commentary - Central Banks' New Frontier: Interventions in Securities Markets - Make it stand out Notes: In addition to individual corporate bonds, the Federal Reserve also purchased 16 different bond ETFs that are included in the approximate value. The Eurosystem totals do not include the €43bn of corporate bonds as a part of its pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP). The private debt market size as of 3Q 2021 is from the BIS debt securities statistics, converted to local currency using then-prevailing average exchange rates. It includes financial and nonfinancial corporate issues outstanding. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank, and Bank of Canada. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/ef7491cb-c3cd-4e8a-96c4-f1229418aea8/ECB+Collateral+by+Type.png Commentary - Central Banks' New Frontier: Interventions in Securities Markets - Make it stand out Notes: Amounts are end-of-month averages for each the fourth quarter of each year. Data for 2022 are midyear. “Government” is the sum of central and regional government issues. Source: ECB. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/8/15/trend-inflation-how-wages-and-housing-are-sustaining-momentum monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/308b6817-5d29-485f-bf13-ac2b6286c0bd/Wage+Inflation+and+Unemployment.png Commentary - Trend inflation: How wages and housing are sustaining momentum - Make it stand out Source: FRED and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/8e52f940-967c-4d98-b9ba-13a53452098d/Inflation+Expectations+and+Core+inflation.png Commentary - Trend inflation: How wages and housing are sustaining momentum - Make it stand out Notes: Inflation expectations are from the University of Michigan monthly survey of households. The 3Q 2022 observations are for July (core CPI) and for July-August (inflation expectations). Source: FRED and Reuters. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/3f681cef-b6f8-409d-9b0c-d30d76f8d73b/Housing+Prices+Shelter+and+Inflation.png Commentary - Trend inflation: How wages and housing are sustaining momentum - Make it stand out Source: FRED and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/7/24/can-vacancies-plunge-without-a-significant-rise-of-unemployment monthly 0.5 2022-08-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/094b5aaf-242a-4bbb-9b29-a05044125b38/New+v-u+ratio+chart+2022-08-03.png Commentary - Can vacancies plunge without a significant rise of unemployment? - Make it stand out Note: Gray areas denote recessions. Sources: The unemployment rate is for the civilian labor force from FRED. Vacancy data for 1950 to 2000 are from Barnichon (2010), updated. Subsequent vacancy data are job openings from FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/79fae00f-24f1-4a61-b5e9-7c834236f226/Beveridge+Curve+in+Theory.png Commentary - Can vacancies plunge without a significant rise of unemployment? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1b2a356b-cc35-4291-aaf8-e6d326a0f9c0/New+Beveridge+Curves+Chart+2022-08-03.png Commentary - Can vacancies plunge without a significant rise of unemployment? - Make it stand out Source: The unemployment rate is for the civilian labor force from FRED. Vacancy data for 1950 to 2002 are from Barnichon (2010), updated. Subsequent vacancy data are job openings from FRED. Trend lines are constructed by estimating ln(v)=a+bln(u). The large black dot for the 2010s uses the average of the CBO’s noncyclical rate of unemployment from FRED averaged over the decade. The large red circles are computed by assuming two different values for the equilibrium ratio of v/u. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/6/19/the-costs-of-acting-too-little-too-late monthly 0.5 2022-06-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/2e6217da-dfee-4edd-a9ce-0da266528913/FOMC+Core+PCEPI+Inflation+Histogram.png Commentary - The Costs of Acting Too Little, Too Late - Make it stand out Note: Inflation projections are for the price change from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Source: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, various editions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/ae362072-4d6e-4176-b4f8-0c85fd7c6440/Core+PCEPI+Inflation+with+Recession+Shading+2022-06-18.png Commentary - The Costs of Acting Too Little, Too Late - Make it stand out Notes: Core PCEPI inflation from 1960 uses the BEA price index of consumer expenditures excluding food and energy. We backcast core PCEPI inflation to 1949 by regressing the 1960-March 2022 sample on the adjusted core CPI from Bolhuis, Cramer and Summers (2022b). Gray shading denotes recessions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/3ab91082-8509-45e6-bb28-cba6cca41dee/Disinflations+Table+Using+Centered+MA%285%29+Core+PCEPI+Inflation.png Commentary - The Costs of Acting Too Little, Too Late - Make it stand out NR no recession. Notes: See chart above for core PCEPI inflation. The dating scheme follows two rules: (1) Each inflation peak is at least 0.6 percentage points above the previous trough; and (2) Each trough is at least 0.6 percentage points below the previous peak. The rise of the unemployment rate shows the change from the trough in the period six months before the recession that occurred during the disinflation to the peak during the six months after the recession. In one case (July 1971), the referenced recession ended eight months before the disinflation began. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/b3f9919f-94a0-4d2a-bbd0-5f901c5f205b/Taylor+Rule+SEP+projections.png Commentary - The Costs of Acting Too Little, Too Late - Make it stand out Notes: The Taylor rule (red) shown is the 1999 version that places twice the weight on resource utilization deviations compared to the original Taylor 1993 rule (see, for example, Yellen). To construct the rule rate, we use the real interest rate from Laubach and Williams, the core PCE price index (PCEPI), a target inflation of 2 percent, and the unemployment rate gap computed using the noncyclical rate of unemployment from the Congressional Budget Office. The SEP federal funds rate and core PCEPI projections are the median values from the FOMC’s June 2022 SEP. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/5/29/tradfi-and-defi-same-problems-different-solutions monthly 0.5 2022-05-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/25371f84-feaa-4fc0-b05d-76ff8ac97bc9/Issues+and+Challenges+2022-05-27.png Commentary - TradFi and DeFI: Same Problems, Different Solutions - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/b745d1be-30de-4fe4-abde-47f01b59a295/Issues+Challenges+and+Solutions+2022-05-27.png Commentary - TradFi and DeFI: Same Problems, Different Solutions - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/3ee66106-bda0-4c92-a8ea-a88b59574640/Issues+Solutions+and+Flaws+2022-05-27.png Commentary - TradFi and DeFI: Same Problems, Different Solutions - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/3/19/harry-potters-monetary-policy-wand monthly 0.5 2022-03-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/74bf97c6-2331-44dc-b954-523d15e101e0/FOMC+SEP+2022+PCE+Inflation+Histogram.png Commentary - Harry Potter's Monetary Policy Wand? - Make it stand out Note: Inflation projections are for the price change from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Source: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, various editions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/5d522621-64fd-432a-95d5-c0d0135a2612/Real+Policy+Rate.png Commentary - Harry Potter's Monetary Policy Wand? - Make it stand out Notes: The projections for the fourth quarters of 2022, 2023, and 2024 use the March 2022 median SEP projections for core PCE inflation and the federal funds rate. The real policy rate subtracts the realized core PCE inflation rate (or its projection) from the federal funds rate (or its projection). Sources: FRED and March 2022 Summary of Economic Projections. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/04541bb6-ff74-4357-b05f-ec32181f5226/Taylor+Rule+Projection.png Commentary - Harry Potter's Monetary Policy Wand? - Make it stand out Notes: The Taylor rule (red) shown is the 1999 version that places twice the weight on resource utilization deviations compared to the original Taylor 1993 rule (see, for example, Yellen). To construct the rule rate, we use the real interest rate from Laubach and Williams, the core PCE price index, a target inflation of 2 percent, and the unemployment rate gap computed using the noncyclical rate of unemployment from the Congressional Budget Office. SEP federal funds rate projections are the median from the FOMC’s March 2022 Summary of Economic Projections. The projection based on private forecasts uses forecasts for the unemployment rate and core PCE inflation kindly provided by Mickey Levy and Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/3/9/russian-sanctions-questions-and-answers monthly 0.5 2022-03-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/d9639d6d-3562-403d-871c-8aece134212b/Foreign+Reserves+Time+Series.png Commentary - Russian Sanctions: Questions and Answers - Make it stand out Source: Bank of Russia. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/d40a879a-b16d-411b-a9fd-a401f5704de4/Foreign+Reserves+By+Currency.png Commentary - Russian Sanctions: Questions and Answers - Make it stand out Notes: In estimating the January 2022 composition of reserves, we use the June 2021 percentage weights from the Bank of Russia’s Foreign Exchange and Gold Asset Management Report (January 2022). Source: Bank of Russia and authors’ estimates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/0d839cff-2529-4d05-8516-177a4b016bb8/SWIFT+Slide.png Commentary - Russian Sanctions: Questions and Answers - Make it stand out Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/932614fb-891a-4593-b837-4b9a3deb11a7/Real+Oil+Price+Chart+2022-03-08.png Commentary - Russian Sanctions: Questions and Answers - Make it stand out Notes: The figure shows the ratio of the WTI oil price to the U.S. CPI. The February and March 2022 CPI figures assume a 7.5% year-to-year increase (as occurred in January 2022). The March 2022 WTI price is the price observed on 8 March 2022. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/2/27/comments-on-fed-cbdc-paper monthly 0.5 2022-03-23 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/2/12/fed-monetary-policy-in-crisis monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/fb883843-7e83-4a05-8b88-4c561b61e604/Trend+Inflation+and+Financial+Conditions.png Commentary - Fed Monetary Policy in Crisis - Make it stand out Notes: Trend inflation is measured by the six-month annualized change of the consumer price index excluding food and energy (core CPI). Financial conditions are measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s national financial conditions index, which has mean zero (dashed black line, right scale)) and standard deviation one over the full sample. NBER recessions are shaded in gray. The dashed red line is at 2¼ percent, which is the level of CPI inflation equivalent to the FOMC’s longer-run inflation goal of 2 percent of the PCE price index. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/c79d5274-c7d4-4758-a19f-564be657639d/Taylor+Rule.png Commentary - Fed Monetary Policy in Crisis - Make it stand out Notes: The Taylor rule (red) shown is the 1999 version that places twice the weight on resource utilization deviations compared to the original Taylor 1993 rule (see, for example, Yellen). To construct the rule rate, we use the real interest rate from Laubach and Williams, the ex-food and energy PCE price index, a target inflation of 2 percent, and the unemployment rate gap computed using the noncyclical rate of unemployment from the Congressional Budget Office. SEP federal funds rate projections are the median from the FOMC’s December 2021 Summary of Economic Projections. The projection based on private forecasts uses forecasts for the unemployment rate and core PCE inflation kindly provided by Mickey Levy and Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/1/28/sec-money-market-fund-reform-proposals-fall-far-short-again monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a5215045-fd2c-4109-ae4f-3047632b5224/MMMF+Assets+by+Fund+Category.png Commentary - SEC Money Market Fund Reform Proposals Fall Far Short, Again - Make it stand out Source: Office of Financial Research U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a90c3ed0-8be2-42df-82bd-fddec67576a4/TOTAL+PRIME+INSTITUTIONAL.png Commentary - SEC Money Market Fund Reform Proposals Fall Far Short, Again - Make it stand out Source: Office of Financial Research U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2022/1/16/same-function-same-risks-same-regulation monthly 0.5 2022-01-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/2c606232-a881-490e-9e62-a127c61bd35e/FinReg+TABLE.png Commentary - Same Function, Same Risks, Same Regulation - Make it stand out Source: Authors. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/12/17/from-inflation-targeting-to-employment-targeting-1 monthly 0.5 2021-12-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a32b6beb-a83d-4eb3-8ed4-bf9df89b52c2/Taylor+1999+Rule+using+FOMC+2021-12+Projections.png Commentary - From Inflation Targeting to Employment Targeting? - Make it stand out Notes: Estimates are based on the 1999 version of the Taylor rule that places twice the weight on resource utilization deviations compared to the original Taylor 1993 rule (see, for example, Yellen.) Dashed lines use FOMC median projections for unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate. They also assume an equilibrium real interest rate (r*) of 0.5%, consistent with the FOMC median longer-run policy rate projection of 2.5%. Shading indicates the projection period. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/542ffe81-baad-4888-a570-02620b6d10f5/2022+PCE+Inflation+Projection+Histogram.png Commentary - From Inflation Targeting to Employment Targeting? - Make it stand out Source: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections Figure 3.C (September 2021 and December 2021). Note: Numbers above the bars reflect the number of FOMC participants in each projection range. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/12/13/stablecoin-the-regulation-debate monthly 0.5 2021-12-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/050944d8-4355-476c-8cae-5c37038e2a5b/Stablecoin+Market+Cap.png Commentary - Stablecoin: The Regulation Debate - Make it stand out Source: Coinmetrics. Note: According to coingecko.com, as of 9 December 2021, Tether and USD Coin account for about 54 percent of total stablecoin capitalization of $161.5 billion. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/e6e621f6-8388-4f05-aef6-c13373a54bda/Stablecoin+Trading+Volume+Table.png Commentary - Stablecoin: The Regulation Debate - Make it stand out Source: Mizrach, Tables 2 and 11. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/2cb87330-05d0-4cc0-81b8-317ac039db9c/Tether+Reserve+Composition.png Commentary - Stablecoin: The Regulation Debate - Make it stand out Source: Tether “Consolidated Reserves Report.” https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/11/18/inflation-policy monthly 0.5 2021-11-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/d2e41e92-e3f4-4630-95ca-bb9f28ab0c03/Balanced+approach+rule.png Commentary - Inflation Policy - Make it stand out Note: The orange line is the rate implied by the balanced approach rule minus the effective federal funds rate. The rule is computed using Laubach and Williams two-sided estimates of r* and the Congressional Budget Office estimates of the noncyclical rate of unemployment (u*). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, FRED, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/3615dea6-fd20-4721-b139-ffc76ab64705/CME+Futures.png Commentary - Inflation Policy - Make it stand out Note: We plot the expected value and the median based on the histogram from the federal funds rate futures market, assuming that the rate is equal to the center of the target range. Source: CME FedWatch Tool, accessed on November 16, 2021; and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/92515f8a-eb25-44b5-a154-dd96888af4a8/Google+Trends+Inflation.png Commentary - Inflation Policy - Make it stand out Source: Google Trends, accessed on 15 Nov 2021. Data for the final November 2021 point are incomplete. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/11/1/us-gets-a-start-on-climate-related-financial-risk monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1635775250494-EPIG0BQGGBB6E1JNJRG0/Past+Climate+Disasters.png Commentary - U.S. Gets a Start on Climate-related Financial Risk - Make it stand out Source: NOAA NCEI; update of Figure 1.1 in FSOC Report on Climate-Related Financial Risk. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1635775300783-3MYUVACDYOMV8YQJS8O4/Heat+Waves+and+Cyclones.png Commentary - U.S. Gets a Start on Climate-related Financial Risk - Make it stand out Notes: Similar to FSOC Report Figure 1.3. Shows percent changes of the 97.5th percentile distributions from the 2015 distribution norms for the expected damage from tropical cyclones and for the expected fraction of population exposed to heatwaves. Source: NGFS Climate Impact Explorer—cyclones and heatwaves (accessed October 2021). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1635775461132-YKY1M5EB4GYUTZM82NAY/TCFD-consistent+disclosures.png Commentary - U.S. Gets a Start on Climate-related Financial Risk - Make it stand out Source: TCFD 2021 Status Report Table B.6. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/10/4/the-urgent-agenda-for-financial-reform monthly 0.5 2021-10-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1633354469473-KMFFSDAMWMJXDK5UNLRK/US+Credit.png Commentary - The Urgent Agenda for Financial Reform - Make it stand out Source: BIS. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/9/5/central-banks-and-climate-policy monthly 0.5 2021-09-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1630854513207-3KKTWI2MXTPW39LVW1Z2/Shares.png Commentary - Central Banks and Climate Policy - Make it stand out Source: Interpolated from Papoutsi, Piazzesi, and Schneider (2021) Figures 2 and 4. “Dirty manufacturing” includes oil and coke, chemicals, basic metals, and nonmetallic manufacturing. “Other manufacturing” is food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, leather, wood, paper, pharmaceuticals, electronics, electrical equipment, machinery, furniture, construction, and other manufacturing. Emissions are directly associated with the sector. See Papoutsi, Piazzesi, and Schneider for details. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1630854592640-NK6P14ZIG3DUQOFPTT5T/Portfolio+Weights.png Commentary - Central Banks and Climate Policy - Make it stand out Source: Constructed from information in the previous chart. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/8/14/the-ecbs-new-strategy-codifying-existing-practice-plus monthly 0.5 2021-08-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1628971454695-9JMN9UJCKCIATMI1L6KP/ECB+Interest+Rates.png Commentary - The ECB's New Strategy: Codifying Existing Practice . . . plus - Make it stand out Source: ECB. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1628971520887-PBYFB53510QIKUMA5H7N/Euro+Area+Inflation.png Commentary - The ECB's New Strategy: Codifying Existing Practice . . . plus - Make it stand out Source: Eurostat. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1628971584968-6O5N9NX6X8S7N19JI0GK/Euro+Area+OOH+Index.png Commentary - The ECB's New Strategy: Codifying Existing Practice . . . plus - Make it stand out Note: OOH Price Index available only through 1Q 2021. Source: Eurostat. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/7/24/the-qe-ratchet monthly 0.5 2021-07-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1627139448758-GRKPE95EXGRL7LR58FRR/CB+Liquidity+Swaps.png Commentary - The QE Ratchet - Make it stand out Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1627139518763-3NMWHOC0TTMYBT2A4P3N/Securities+ex+Currency.png Commentary - The QE Ratchet - Make it stand out Note: Through April 2009, we have truncated the series at zero. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/7/3/talking-about-tapering monthly 0.5 2021-07-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1625346547466-7RVNU7S4Q48KJ09UKNWJ/Dot+Plot+June+2021.png Commentary - Talking about Tapering - Make it stand out Note: Each dot reflects an individual FOMC participant’s projection (rounded to the nearest 0.125%). Source: FOMC June 2021 Summary of Economic Projections. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1625346595667-WU3UIE81R2FY2JN3T66X/Price+Pressures.png Commentary - Talking about Tapering - Make it stand out Note: This is the “price pressures measure” from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1625346656011-AMTA56450LNWMT8957WM/Change+in+Financial+Conditions.png Commentary - Talking about Tapering - Make it stand out Note: The changes for the S&P500 and the Broad trade-weighted U.S. dollar are in percent. Sources: FRED and BIS (exchange rate). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/6/20/central-bank-digital-currency-the-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-financial-system monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1624196948478-RO77S75EDB0DH8PWYLPB/Digital+Money.png Commentary - Central Bank Digital Currency: The Battle for the Soul of the Financial System - Make it stand out Note: Numbers above the bars are the ratio of total broad money to GDP. Sources: Bank of England (M3), People’s Bank of China (Money + Quasi Money), Bank of Canada (M3), Bank of Japan (M3), Swiss National Bank (M3), Eurostat (M3), Bank of Russia (M2), Federal Reserve (M2), and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/6/6/understanding-how-central-banks-use-their-balance-sheets-a-critical-categorization monthly 0.5 2021-06-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/5/31/climate-finance monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1622454075495-XKS0QL6X8EQWI2YADPSZ/Present+Value.png Commentary - Climate Finance - Make it stand out Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1622454177360-Q9Y6MKL25Q6E7LLPA135/Climate+News+Index.png Commentary - Climate Finance - Make it stand out Notes: The red line is the mean, while the dotted blue lines show a standard deviation above and below the mean. Source: Figure 2 in Engle, Giglio, Kelly, Lee, and Stroebel, “Hedging Climate Change News,” 2020. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/5/16/inflation-dont-worry-be-prepared monthly 0.5 2021-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1621213069115-RYQBNAH2MI1UL3INDPMB/Inflation+History.png Commentary - Inflation: Don't Worry, Be Prepared - Make it stand out Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1621213113301-BNYZWTYVAHFU02KCRTTF/Histogram.png Commentary - Inflation: Don't Worry, Be Prepared - Make it stand out Source: FRED and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1621213184687-C88RK1Q5KMDZW8PHUW5D/Fiscal+Thrust.png Commentary - Inflation: Don't Worry, Be Prepared - Make it stand out Note: We plot the residuals from a regression of the fiscal-year U.S. federal deficit (as a percent of GDP) on the calendar-year unemployment rate. Source: FRED and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/5/3/optimal-settlement-speed monthly 0.5 2021-05-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1620047207653-L6VJ5IVIVPGU0W7HG730/Reduction+of+Settlement+Obligations.png Commentary - Optimal Settlement Speed Note: The totals that appear above the bars already incorporate the impact of netting dealer-to-dealer trades. The red bars show the estimated impact of imposing central clearing on dealer-to-customer trades. Source: Table 1, Fleming and Keane, The Netting Efficiencies of Marketwide Central Clearing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1620047281123-KU2B16AZGV53ZRGDKA8T/Fleming+Keane+Fig+13+Fails.png Commentary - Optimal Settlement Speed Source: Figure 13, Fleming and Keane, The Netting Efficiencies of Marketwide Central Clearing. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/4/17/stopping-central-banks-from-being-prisoners-of-financial-markets monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1618675068004-40NUI3UDNK14TE9PKL2M/SNB+Assets.png Commentary - Stopping central banks from being prisoners of financial markets Source: Swiss National Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1618675133768-LE23XRDTP6FX76S8W47H/BoJ+Assets.png Commentary - Stopping central banks from being prisoners of financial markets Source: Bank of Japan. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1618675187896-SMKIPJK15E3UW9NK7OXF/Taper+Tantrum.png Commentary - Stopping central banks from being prisoners of financial markets Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/3/21/thoughts-on-deposit-insurance monthly 0.5 2021-03-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1616362431057-AOTSUSDVBW3JWEQI8UL2/Number+of+Banks+and+FDIC+Losses.png Commentary - Thoughts on Deposit Insurance Note: As of 1990, the data cover banks and thrifts; prior to 1990, only banks are covered. According to the FDIC’s historical statistics on banking, including thrifts raises the peak number of failures in 1989 to 530 institutions, more than double the displayed peak for banks. Source: FDIC Annual Reports of 2020 and 2005. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1616362511187-B3FGB58YMSV65J8RE82D/DIF+and+Assessment+Rate.png Commentary - Thoughts on Deposit Insurance Source: FDIC Annual Report 2020. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/3/1/limiting-central-banking monthly 0.5 2021-03-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1614596660640-2AHNE3CUVQSKO9G1WJGI/Central+Bank+Assets.png Commentary - Limiting Central Banking Note: Observations for the Bank of England for 2019 and 2020 are likely understated as published data do not appear to be comprehensive (see here). Source: Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Eurostat, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1614596811804-D8LNQPMIHKZ1E7O6AB9S/Change+in+Central+Bank+Assets.png Commentary - Limiting Central Banking Source: Various central banks, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/2/14/is-inflation-coming monthly 0.5 2021-02-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1613315360156-Q4LSAGXLCKAAPH59YTH5/Money+Growth+and+Inflation.png Commentary - Is Inflation Coming? Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1613315429465-QIK8WTXAAIWLZUBZSA99/Full+Sample+Projection.png Commentary - Is Inflation Coming? Source: FRED and authors’ calculations using Eviews. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1613315494944-BJXX79HKP6EU0IQAHMZR/Recent+Sample+Projection.png Commentary - Is Inflation Coming? Source: FRED and authors’ calculations using Eviews. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/1/31/gamestop-some-preliminary-lessons monthly 0.5 2021-02-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1612119426951-DHGULEGWL1AL8NLBAIVS/GameStop+Share+Price.png Commentary - GameStop: Some Preliminary Lessons Source: Yahoo Finance and YCharts. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1612119490324-FUPY5LC1I1PCFGMOSF1D/IndexFundShare.png Commentary - GameStop: Some Preliminary Lessons Source: 2018 Investment Company Fact Book, Figure 2.8, pg. 43; and 2020 Investment Company Fact Book, Figure 2.9, pg. 40. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/1/17/open-end-funds-vs-etfs-lessons-from-the-covid-stress-test monthly 0.5 2021-01-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1610928426991-UUIJ6XR6ZV5110YOSG05/Share+of+Corp+Bonds+Held.png Commentary - Open-end Funds vs. ETFs: Lessons from the COVID Stress Test Source: Tables L.122 and L.213, Financial Accounts of the United States (Federal Reserve Z.1) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1610928473022-9LFETZ2HPIP0TMXAZQOU/Bond+Fund+Flows.png Commentary - Open-end Funds vs. ETFs: Lessons from the COVID Stress Test Sources: ICI (estimated long-term mutual fund flows and ETF net issuance) and Table L.213, Financial Accounts of the United States (Federal Reserve Z.1) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2021/1/2/fix-money-funds-now monthly 0.5 2021-01-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1609618549906-XP2ZNC0OBX1V6BNNTZ7Z/MMMF+by+Type.png Commentary - Fix Money Funds Now Source: Treasury Office of Financial Research Money Market Fund Monitor. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1609618604760-1Y6LON7SFUJXAQOQ60UO/Outflows+by+Crisis.png Commentary - Fix Money Funds Now Source: Li, Li, Machiavelli, and Zhou, Figure 2b, Liquidity Restrictions, Runs, and Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Money Market Funds. Data kindly provided by Li et al. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/12/21/big-tech-fintech-and-the-future-of-credit monthly 0.5 2020-12-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1608562638496-NUTYW7W2W2TA7M2UAFK6/Fintech.png Commentary - Big Tech, Fintech, and the Future of Credit Source: BIS. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/12/8/where-governments-should-spend-more monthly 0.5 2020-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1607462244105-AGJ1WRSE9D9FFO7IEXQG/Net+Investment.png Commentary - Where Governments Should Spend More Source: Net government investment, excluding defense, and GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis, National income and product accounts Table 5.2.5. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/11/24/whats-in-store-for-r monthly 0.5 2020-11-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1606212078409-CWTU71X9R4BO5F77ELK2/Decadal+Real+Rates.png Commentary - What's in store for r*? Source: Laubach and Williams real time estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1606212138070-QJN8GCVIKLMUI3KNZGG3/Table+of+r*+determinants.png Commentary - What's in store for r*? *Gini coefficient is for 1990, 2000, and 2016. All other data are averages for decades. Sources: Equilibrium real rate is from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; total factor productivity, growth in hours worked, and labor force quality are cyclically adjusted from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; rate of firm formation is from the Bureau of the Census, Business Dynamics Survey; private nonfinancial and public debt to GDP are from the Bank for International Settlements; the Gini index is from the World Bank; and the share of wealth of the top 10% is from the Federal Reserve Board. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1606212184737-0GNQ3IBJHGD5V46V3RWU/NIIP.png Commentary - What's in store for r*? Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1606212233898-6ST2I3ZKR7BDS1F87JE9/Consumption+Wealth+Ratio.png Commentary - What's in store for r*? Source: FRED and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/11/8/the-case-of-the-treasury-account-at-the-federal-reserve monthly 0.5 2020-11-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1604871353636-X9GF4G117KRQ25IE8IX7/Weekly+Levels.png Commentary - The Case of the Treasury Account at the Federal Reserve Source: FRED and Federal Reserve H.4.1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1604871403001-IF509CWZ7SKR8WM73R1D/Fraction+of+Total+Liabilities.png Commentary - The Case of the Treasury Account at the Federal Reserve Note: All data are for the annual averages of weekly data, except for 2020, which is for end-October. Source: FRED and Federal Reserve H.4.1. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/10/11/setting-bank-capital-requirements monthly 0.5 2020-10-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1602450971860-ZH5QEQ3LUMDZCWKFEAHW/FRBKC+SLR.png Commentary - Setting Bank Capital Requirements Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and authors’ calculations. The solid black line is the average supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) as computed by the FRBKC. We estimate the dashed line using information from editions of the FDIC Global Capital Index. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1602451042167-MP5E6XV0HU2B96XJC7GL/BIS+Credit.png Commentary - Setting Bank Capital Requirements Source: BIS. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/9/20/an-economic-zombie-survival-guide monthly 0.5 2020-09-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1600610293095-YA6RH0RSTLHZ11CWORTR/ZombieTrend.png Commentary - An Economic Zombie Survival Guide Source: Banerjee and Hofmann, Figure 2. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/9/10/patience-vs-fait-which-is-key-in-the-new-fomc-strategy monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1599771228934-488XXBTQPD1CI6XU6CA6/FAIT+vs+Shortfall.png Commentary - Patience vs FAIT: Which is key in the new FOMC strategy? Notes: The FAIT rule uses the price index of personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy. We use the CBO measure of the natural rate of unemployment for u*. Sources: FRED and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/8/29/the-feds-new-strategy-more-discretion-less-preemption monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1598724699325-XJZUUC5PV8QA8B7PEC8C/Change+in+Market+Conditions.png Commentary - The Fed's New Strategy: More Discretion, Less Preemption Sources: FRED and (for the 2020 U.S. dollar index futures) investing.com. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/8/23/average-inflation-targeting monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1598200486546-0U1ME6SVXCI5JN24LOD9/Targeting+simulation.png Commentary - Average Inflation Targeting Source: Authors' calculations based on Kahn. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1598200566243-FRHK40733B1JT51SL2RA/Long+run+price+evolution.png Commentary - Average Inflation Targeting Source: FRED and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1598200620639-QYJFL73UEQNQDJGODK1D/Two+year+ahead+inflation+target.png Commentary - Average Inflation Targeting Note: inflation is measured using the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy). Source: Authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/8/18/making-the-treasury-market-resilient monthly 0.5 2020-08-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1597784325942-V154T02LY3C3HC9T4USP/Off-+vs+On-the-Run+Spread.png Commentary - Making the Treasury Market Resilient Source: BIS Annual Report 2020 Graph II.A for the OTR yield spread and FRED for the Fed’s Treasury holdings. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1597784400564-B9DBSQZFM7LILZP9HGOP/Treasury+TRACE+Volume.png Commentary - Making the Treasury Market Resilient ATS automated trading systems. Note: The data do not distinguish between interdealer and ATS trading. Source: FINRA and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1597784460032-CBF2MUYD4DE0JDBOHPT3/Treasury+Debt+Held+by+the+Public.png Commentary - Making the Treasury Market Resilient Sources: Pre-COVID projection by CBO. Post-COVID projection by Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (partly based on interpolation by the authors). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/8/2/has-the-us-distribution-of-wealth-worsened monthly 0.5 2020-08-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1596395804317-QB3TDWJSCQELM1E59K9M/Total+Wealth.png Commentary - Has the U.S. Distribution of Wealth Worsened? Sources: Saez and Zucman; Catherine, Miller and Sarin; and authors’ calculations. CMS construct estimates every three years—when SCF data are available. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1596395848849-GX2CW4QM9XIY3WYJIOEF/Wealth+Distribution.png Commentary - Has the U.S. Distribution of Wealth Worsened? Source: Saez and Zucman; Catherine, Miller and Sarin; and authors calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1596395895121-PTLQPQM5QYGXU449VNLN/Wealth+Inequality+Table.png Commentary - Has the U.S. Distribution of Wealth Worsened? Source: First row is from Saez and Zucman. We thank Catherine, Miller and Sarin for providing the information in the remainder of the table. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/7/26/cyber-risk-financial-stability-and-the-payments-system monthly 0.5 2020-07-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1595777599374-2QUIQ0FG5BBD6IZE96FT/Fedwire.png Commentary - Cyber Risk, Financial Stability and the Payments System Source: Federal Reserve. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1595777685060-12R9PWUQM6V5GX4K87TT/EKL_Chart.png Commentary - Cyber Risk, Financial Stability and the Payments System Source: Eisenbach, Kovner and Lee, Figure 2a. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1595777738551-WVNM19WVCOCXO04BG9QW/DwellTime.png Commentary - Cyber Risk, Financial Stability and the Payments System Source: M-Trends 2020. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/7/18/just-vote-no monthly 0.5 2020-07-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1595081593563-IFI5UW170ZUCDFEME89V/GoldANDPCEPI.png Commentary - Just Vote NO Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/7/6/feds-big-stick-lets-it-speak-powerfully monthly 0.5 2020-07-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1594035160399-D8Z8OH6VLNSYP08A0SOI/Fed+Assets.png Commentary - Fed's big stick lets it speak powerfully Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1594035219597-4YNOYZA4RC76K57R0TTK/Policy+Tools+Table.png Commentary - Fed's big stick lets it speak powerfully Notes: Dates reflect initial announcement of the policy tool. Sources: Federal Reserve press releases and term sheets, Federal Reserve H.4.1. release (balance on July 1), Federal Reserve Commercial Paper release (outstanding), SIFMA database (bonds and ABS outstanding), Federal Reserve Bank of New York (primary dealer repo), and FDIC QBP time series spreadsheets (bank loans to small businesses). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1594039874480-5Q6LCZ0M9W8OROMB47PY/Issuance.png Commentary - Fed's big stick lets it speak powerfully Notes: The brown dashed vertical line marks the announcement date of the PDCF, while the blue dashed vertical line markets the announcement date of the corporate credit facilities. Source: BIS Annual Economic Report 2020, Graph I.8 (left panel), June 30, 2020. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1594039901702-XWCI63H7RMZH5QY23R6Y/Fund+Flows.png Commentary - Fed's big stick lets it speak powerfully Source: BIS Annual Economic Report 2020, Graph I.12 (center panel), June 30, 2020 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/6/30/stress-tests-lack-covid-scale-stress monthly 0.5 2020-06-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1593542590781-L1WL0KG4KDW04A8Q7UKV/Fed+Stress+Picture.png Commentary - Stress tests lack COVID-scale stress Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1593542652715-4RJ7H2K0BREG43TL3BC6/Leverage+Ratios.png Commentary - Stress tests lack COVID-scale stress Note: The end-June 2020 leverage ratio on the vertical axis is computed as the current market value of bank equity divided by the sum of market value of equity and book value of fixed liabilities. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Table 4; NYU Stern V-Lab; and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1593542705405-TKB7FL2USWJ98BU35IFS/Individual+Banks.png Commentary - Stress tests lack COVID-scale stress Note: We exclude both TD Ameritrade and American Express. Source: NYU Stern V-Lab; and authors’ calculations. Labels are the stock symbols for each bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/6/21/an-open-letter-to-randal-k-quarles-federal-reserve-vice-chair-for-supervision monthly 0.5 2020-06-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1592761774801-DTY8F811R82ZUQG0WS4D/Fed+Stress+Test+Table.png Commentary - An Open Letter to Randal K. Quarles, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Notes: The economic estimates treat the second quarter of 2020 as the trough of the recession and the peak of the unemployment rate. The second-quarter 2020 estimates for the financial indicators reflect the averages through June 19, with the exception of the stock market index (latest observation) and the VIX (maximum daily close during the quarter). Sources: Federal Reserve for the scenario; FRED and author’s calculations for the current estimates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1592761841865-9SB19C31ZMVJSP307PTM/US+SRISK+as+of+2020-06-19.png Commentary - An Open Letter to Randal K. Quarles, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Note: Data history provided by NYU Stern Volatility Lab. The monthly observations since end-March are based on the Volatility Lab website and authors’ calculations. The data use the global dynamic MES model of world financials with default assumptions (namely, 40 percent global equity drop; 40 percent of “separate accounts” of insurers included; and capital requirements of 8 percent). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1592761885117-TPY36HMS856UX1QVHPAB/FRBKC+Capital+Index.png Commentary - An Open Letter to Randal K. Quarles, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Note: While both ratios use Tier 1 capital in the numerator, the denominator of the supplementary leverage ratio is a broader measure that includes not just balance sheet assets but also derivatives exposure and commitments. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City semi-annual Bank Capital Analysis. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/6/15/the-feds-crystal-ball-looking-beyond-the-covid-19-recession monthly 0.5 2020-06-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1592218486038-R97RBHV0L2IJILALGC55/SEP+GDP+Projection+2020-06.png Commentary - The Fed's Crystal Ball: Looking Beyond the COVID-19 Recession Sources: FRED, Federal Open Market Committee, and authors’ calculations. Note: We estimate 2Q 2020 real GDP by taking the average of the latest nowcasts of the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, New York and St. Louis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1592218539155-26QBR32EXTGUD7GSGMET/SEP+2020-06.png Commentary - The Fed's Crystal Ball: Looking Beyond the COVID-19 Recession Sources: FRED and (prior to April 2015) various FOMC transcripts. Note that the red diamond for March 2015 denotes the midpoint of the range, not the median. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/5/31/fiscal-space-has-limits-too monthly 0.5 2020-05-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1590936108275-WIESHXJVVJRZNXH9JG3Y/IMF+Primary+Balance+Projections.png Commentary - Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor for April 2020 and October 2019, and authors’ calculations based on Tables 11 and 12 in Jordà et al (2019). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1590936619780-EY2XT5U6E8B7IZE15U2T/IMF+Debt+Projections.png Commentary - Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor for April 2020 and October 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1590936767978-6Z9FBO5ZB4TKGSSUF6J0/IMF+Common+Component+R+Minus+G.png Commentary - Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too Note: Gray-shaded area denotes 95-percent confidence range for the forecast (dotted red line). Source: April 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, Figure 2.2.1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1590936825889-UH4V914JJWIE9UCBETEK/Debt+to+GDP+Table.png Commentary - Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too Source: Authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/5/26/the-price-is-not-right-measuring-inflation-in-a-pandemic monthly 0.5 2020-05-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1590485820570-BHH8MQKU5QTTQL3UKD6A/Inflation+Measures.png Commentary - The Price is Not Right: Measuring Inflation in a Pandemic Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/5/17/euro-area-in-the-age-of-covid-19 monthly 0.5 2020-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1589714851864-SCDTWN4SWZHWVQ6O799B/Two+Monetary+Unions+v2.png Commentary - The Euro Area in the Age of COVID-19 Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1589714917277-203NMOK814ENF5OPP8B5/Home+Bias.png Commentary - The Euro Area in the Age of COVID-19 Source: ECB Statistical Data Warehouse and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1589715101150-8JRX3N7REPEABU9H75ND/Euro+Area+Yield+Spreads+since+2008+2020-05-17.png Commentary - The Euro Area in the Age of COVID-19 Source: Eurostat (through April 2020) and Financial Times for final observation (May 16). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/5/10/helicopters-to-the-rescue monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1589120771593-TJ6GMJRKWXYH3XBLWCTK/CB+Balance+Sheet+Size.png Commentary - Helicopters to the Rescue? Note: Numbers above bars are the current ratios. Sources: FRED and Swiss National Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/5/3/central-bank-to-the-world-supplying-dollars-in-the-covid-crisis monthly 0.5 2020-05-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1588524842692-2RL215EKNXUKD249J6YH/Fed+Swap+Lines+Since+2007.png Commentary - Central Bank to the World: Supplying Dollars in the COVID Crisis Notes: Gray areas depict recessions. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1588524922385-Y4IP6J8UQR0LKO6FPIA0/Swap+rates+since+2006.png Commentary - Central Bank to the World: Supplying Dollars in the COVID Crisis Source: Courtesy of the Bank for International Settlements. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1588524998507-0G6JBGFF1S1N30FFZ5XL/Swap+Spread+and+Intervention.png Commentary - Central Bank to the World: Supplying Dollars in the COVID Crisis Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (liquidity swaps) and courtesy of the Bank for International Settlements (swap basis). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/4/26/inflation-is-not-and-should-not-be-a-key-worry-today monthly 0.5 2020-04-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1587914874608-55A8QX3WFS7PB4AEA9A5/M2+Multiplier.png Commentary - Inflation is not (and should not be) a key worry today Note: The data are monthly through February 2020 and weekly thereafter. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1587916138947-AXTWNRDUOB8DP9IZKOKC/Inflation+vs+M2+growth.png Commentary - Inflation is not (and should not be) a key worry today Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1587914983695-VE7NUJ4AXL6G92MFM1BT/Inflation+expectations+vs+Fed+Assets.png Commentary - Inflation is not (and should not be) a key worry today Source: FRED. The final observations are for April 22, 2020. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/4/19/covid-19-economic-downturn-what-do-cyclical-norms-suggest-1 monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1587320988368-H7QFC11RULK1P9X73OUO/Okuns+Law.png Commentary - COVID-19 Economic Downturn: What do cyclical norms suggest? Note: The normal rate of growth is the CBO measure of the potential growth rate. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1587321037892-6W3ZJ0KZ48V5TUOBCZCJ/Unemployment+history.png Commentary - COVID-19 Economic Downturn: What do cyclical norms suggest? Source: FRED (NBER Macrohistory Database from 1929-1942; BLS since 1948) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1587321091594-0IZHUQ0U1GTT127IESNZ/Deficit+and+unemployment.png Commentary - COVID-19 Economic Downturn: What do cyclical norms suggest? Sources: FRED, BLS and BEA. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/4/12/the-fed-goes-to-war-part-3 monthly 0.5 2020-04-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1586705949628-5TRJ54J4Q4AR4KZMMGOU/Fed+Assets.png Commentary - The Fed Goes to War: Part 3 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1586706031380-SSP7S9ZD2DGKD77EC0MU/Table+of+Fed+Facilities.png Commentary - The Fed Goes to War: Part 3 Notes: Multiple dates reflect initial announcement of and subsequent modifications to the policy tool. Sources: Federal Reserve press releases and term sheets, Federal Reserve H.4.1. release (balance on April 8), Federal Reserve Commercial Paper release (outstanding), SIFMA database (bonds and ABS outstanding), Federal Reserve Bank of New York (primary dealer repo), and FDIC QBP time series spreadsheets (bank loans to small businesses). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/4/8/on-the-resilience-of-large-us-banks monthly 0.5 2020-04-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1586382904614-RIYZXBCUGLX21VBDJMC7/Stock+Buybacks.png Commentary - On the Resilience of Large U.S. banks Note: We do not show State Street’s modest net issuance (negative repurchases) of $ 0.7 billion in 2018. Source: Annual reports (SEC form 10-K) of the banks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1586382959020-ZOTPN961F11VSG13UZQH/TLAC+Debt+Pct+of+CET1.png Commentary - On the Resilience of Large U.S. banks Note: Numbers above the bars are estimates of each bank’s TLAC debt in billions of U.S. dollars. Banks are shown in order of their total exposure (the denominator of their Basel III leverage ratio). Source: Annual reports (SEC form 10K) of the various banks, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1586383014171-0CZY4V1HOTS89UO66N6Q/Citi+TLAC+Debt+by+Maturity.png Commentary - On the Resilience of Large U.S. banks Source: Citigroup. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/3/29/covid-19-stress-test monthly 0.5 2020-03-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1585515879948-BPZTIG4N7BY5VW0MH1WV/Regional+SRISK.png Commentary - COVID-19 Stress Test Note: Numerical SRISK changes shown in red next to red bar. Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab using the global dynamic MES model of world financials with standard assumptions (40 percent global equity drop; 40% of “separate accounts” of insurers included; and equal-weighted capital requirements of 5.5 percent for Europe and 8 percent elsewhere). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1585515944402-E59J18Y8ZZR68ZQV94MT/Time+Series+Mvg+Avg.png Commentary - COVID-19 Stress Test Source: Data history provided by NYU Stern Volatility Lab. March 27, 2020 observation from Volatility Lab website and authors’ calculations. All data use the global dynamic MES model of world financials with default assumptions (40 percent global equity drop; 40% of “separate accounts” of insurers included; and capital requirements of 5.5 percent for Europe and 8 percent elsewhere). With the exception of the final data point for March 27, 2020, we plot the five-month centered moving average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1585516134088-46G79DOPSRS8QX4Z7IC8/Top+SRISK+Changes+2.png Commentary - COVID-19 Stress Test Notes: We rank firms by the changes in SRISK (red bars) from December 31, 2019 to March 27, 2020. Gray bars and white numbers are the levels of SRISK at the end of 2019, while black numbers are the levels of SRISK as of March 27, 2020. Firms with negative SRISK at the end of 2019 have no gray bar. BAC: Bank of America. JPM: JP Morgan. WFC: Wells Fargo. TFC: Truist Financial. C: Citigroup. RBC: Royal Bank of Canada. USB: U.S. Bank. TD: Toronto-Dominion. BNS: Bank of Nova Scotia. AIG: American International Group. Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab using the global dynamic MES model of world financials with default assumptions (40 percent global equity drop; 40% of “separate accounts” of insurers included; and capital requirements of 8 percent). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/3/25/the-fed-goes-to-war-part-2 monthly 0.5 2020-03-25 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/3/22/the-fed-goes-to-war monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1584906258580-CO0BFMTZLYH0YIN2BAQ4/VXO.png Commentary - The Fed Goes to War: Part 1 Note: Recessions shaded in gray. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/3/8/covid-19-what-can-monetary-policy-do-3 monthly 0.5 2020-03-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1583757959583-M7IJBNKZ7J9RQZTGKXTE/Global+PMI+and+10yr+Treasury+yield.png Commentary - COVID-19: What can monetary policy do? Notes: A score above (below) 50 on the global PMI indicates that manufacturing is expanding or contracting from the previous month. Sources: FRED and courtesy of Deutsche Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1583703485380-2X9474YJ1UDAH6932IA8/Inflation+Stock+Prices+Recessions.png Commentary - COVID-19: What can monetary policy do? Note: The change of inflation is the difference between annual CPI inflation in the month prior to the start of the NBER business cycle peak and in its level at the trough. The percent change of the S&P Composite compares the level six months prior to the business cycle peak with the index trough during that recession. Sources: FRED and Shiller. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/3/2/contagion-bank-runs-and-covid-19 monthly 0.5 2020-03-02 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/3/1/bank-runs-and-panics-a-primer monthly 0.5 2020-03-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1583087878804-26YC3G1IOV348Z8O7SHC/IMF+Banking+Crises.png Commentary - Bank Runs and Panics: A Primer Notes: Output loss is the cumulative difference from potential GDP over the three years from the start date of the crisis (shown in parentheses beneath each country). Source: Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database, 2018. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/2/23/monetary-policy-in-the-next-recession monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1582465658052-4HQ5AZ41H9461MZR5KN3/Table+1.png Commentary - Monetary Policy in the Next Recession? Notes: Table reports the impact of various NMPs on domestic financial conditions. Yellow shading denotes a statistically significant impact (a t-ratio equal to or greater than 2.0) and orange shading indicates a t-ratio between 1.5 and 2.0. Gray means no statistically significant effect, and white means that the country did not use the tool, or that it is collinear with another tool. For the euro area countries, we use ECB assets in place of the monetary base. Source: Table 1 in USMPF (2020). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1582465746651-E0QY2V86PWXM8XIY10CO/NMP+Impact+Scatter+Plot.png Commentary - Monetary Policy in the Next Recession? Note: Each dot represents a country-NMP tool pair. Source: Figure 7 in USMPF (2020). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/2/16/some-unpleasant-gold-bug-arithmetic monthly 0.5 2020-02-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1581878973870-307KKXZCXM2OMW9XP6OW/Gold+Price+Chart.png Commentary - Some Unpleasant Gold Bug Arithmetic Source: FRED (GOLDAMGBD228NLBM). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1581879041564-UFXQCN5Y9NJ5GIC22GXT/H_4_1+Table.png Commentary - Some Unpleasant Gold Bug Arithmetic Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1, February 12, 2020. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1581879162013-I637GI3AEPRL85DFAOQ5/Gold+Elasticity+Chart.png Commentary - Some Unpleasant Gold Bug Arithmetic Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 and authors’ calculations. Our calculations are for the price elasticity with respect to official sector holdings. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2020/2/9/has-p2p-lending-already-hit-the-wall monthly 0.5 2020-02-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1581268253017-6WB7C1LP780118SLC45Q/Sharpe+Ratios.png Commentary - Has P2P lending already hit the wall? Notes: We compute Sharpe ratios based on excess returns. For the Lending Club loans, excess returns are relative to the three-year constant maturity U.S. Treasury rate. For the intermediate bonds, U.S. long-term Treasuries and the S&P 500, excess returns are relative to three-month constant maturity U.S. Treasury rates. With the exception of the Berkshire Hathaway and Renaissance Technology estimates, which we do not compute, all calculations use quarterly data from 1Q 2010 to 3Q 2019. Sources: Lending Club data are from lendingclub.com; S&P500 data are from Shiller; intermediate bonds (VBMFX) and U.S. long-term Treasuries (VUSTX) are for Vanguard Index portfolios; information on Berkshire Hathaway is from Frazzini, Kabiller, and Pedersen; and the estimates for Renaissance Technologies are for the Medallion Fund from Zuckerman. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1581268321146-ZPP4HSW12SU55Q0G3BFY/Stiglitz+Weiss+Credit+Rationing+Figure+1.png Commentary - Has P2P lending already hit the wall? Source: Stiglitz and Weiss. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1581268402785-4ZYBTIJGXUQYPL426IRR/Lending+Club+Adverse+Selection.png Commentary - Has P2P lending already hit the wall? Source: lendingclub.com. We note that, since Lending Club loans are all between 24 and 60 months, much of the data beyond the end of 2016 relies on the firm’s projected, not actual, loss rates. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/12/15/foreign-exchange-trading-2019-edition monthly 0.5 2019-12-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1576440533928-4LCH50JROAKWRNYYIC6I/FX+by+Counterparty.png Commentary - Foreign Exchange Trading: 2019 Edition Source: BIS Triennial Survey, 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1576440586117-ZW6KVPUUAF144XPBGSC7/FX+by+currency.png Commentary - Foreign Exchange Trading: 2019 Edition Source: BIS Triennial Survey, 2019. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/11/9/monitoring-the-monitors monthly 0.5 2019-11-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1573313827579-3CP7H3PLDLBSVDB4TCU4/Reporting+Gap+Histogram.png Commentary - Monitoring the Monitors Source: Data are based on Figure 3 from Chen, Cohen and Gurun, but also include the share that report accurately (resulting in a zero gap). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1573313894195-7OF7BKFWUW249KDN1YFS/Underperformance+by+Fund+Type.png Commentary - Monitoring the Monitors Note: The numbers above the bars show the cumulative under- or over-performance. Source: SPIVA U.S. Scorecard. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/10/25/monetary-policy-operations-redux monthly 0.5 2019-10-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1572265969239-KRVADLKH6H9UH8JLON4C/SOFR.png Commentary - Monetary Policy Operations Redux Note: The solid black line shows the SOFR rate, which is a weighted average of all trades. The area shaded in pink between the dotted lines shows the range between the 1st percentile and 99th percentile of trades. Source: FRBNY SOFR data. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1572031454992-WIP0ZSMYYXYG4TKQGEGW/Reserve+Demand+and+Supply.png Commentary - Monetary Policy Operations Redux Notes: The red curve labeled RD is the demand for reserves. The vertical blue lines depict the evolving supply of reserves (RS) that gradually shifted left as the Fed’s balance sheet shrank. The gray-shaded area shows the target range for the federal funds rate that prevails when the effective federal funds rate is at point D. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1572035678075-RLMS263ANUH9VCO6646T/Fed+Liabilities.png Commentary - Monetary Policy Operations Redux Source: FRED (Federal Reserve H.4.1). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/10/11/the-federal-home-loan-banks-two-lessons-in-regulatory-arbitrage monthly 0.5 2019-10-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1570800353033-AQQGSLY0VMIF8HGXXLCZ/FHLB+Assets.png Commentary - The Federal Home Loan Banks: Two Lessons in Regulatory Arbitrage Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1570800423263-8SIL67KQP42ZI7UCAFDK/MMMF+FHLB+Holdings.png Commentary - The Federal Home Loan Banks: Two Lessons in Regulatory Arbitrage Source: OFR Money Market Fund Monitor, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/9/22/the-costs-of-inefficient-regulation-the-volcker-rule monthly 0.5 2019-09-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1569177729070-KXSUQON947F922MDLUVN/Inventories.png Commentary - The Costs of Inefficient Regulation: The Volcker Rule Sources: FRBNY for trading and available-for-sale assets of the consolidated banking system and FINRA Fact Book (from SIFMA website) for corporate bond trading volume. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/9/14/should-students-borrow monthly 0.5 2019-09-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1568454568554-VS4J35OIK9NUF746JCQM/Student+Loan+Share.png Commentary - Should Students Borrow? Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1568454633289-BWL0I06Q4S4GCGX7I9GL/College+ROI.png Commentary - Should Students Borrow? Source: Payscale and authors’ calculations. The website data, which account for financial aid, are based on the educational cost and on the wage distribution across age cohorts all at time t, so the reported return can be thought of as real, rather than nominal. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1568454692535-7E92K0FFIS395CYDG8Z7/Repayment+Status.png Commentary - Should Students Borrow? Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/8/22/replacing-libor monthly 0.5 2019-08-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1566834079971-WOFZAM3B5W6T8E7W7ZVS/LIBOR+Table+1.png Commentary - Replacing LIBOR OTC over the counter. FRN floating-rate note. VRN variable-rate note. Source: Based on Table 1, ARRC Second Report, March 2018. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1566478008762-26OWRKFX9L0HQUX2833A/SOFR+Volume.png Commentary - Replacing LIBOR Source: FRBNY. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1566478065916-66ZNL5ZC6V817EDZIPGV/Google+Trends+LIBOR+SOFR.png Commentary - Replacing LIBOR Source: Google Trends (accessed August 22, 2019). Updated from slide 9 of the July 2019 LIBOR Transition working group report. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/8/4/just-say-no-to-exchange-rate-intervention monthly 0.5 2019-08-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1564950088663-LBFSD6TILLZM1UGBLMOE/US+REER.png Commentary - Just say no to exchange rate intervention Source: FRED, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1564950137497-SNRULGLLGKU2CXDAE8US/CHF+SNB.png Commentary - Just say no to exchange rate intervention Source: Swiss National Bank, FRED and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/7/14/libras-dramatic-call-to-regulatory-action monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1563191849828-A4XLAG43JM7SN2K69GK6/SDR2.png Commentary - Libra's dramatic call to regulatory action Source: IMF and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/7/6/protecting-the-federal-reserve monthly 0.5 2019-07-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1562439739027-AHRIWSLLFM4CITHOIDJE/Gold+and+PCE+Inflation.png Commentary - Protecting the Federal Reserve Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1562439787965-S80KZ6FQZUPRK01OWLR4/Inflation.png Commentary - Protecting the Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1562439823910-R3SWY6OMN35RQWU9P69E/GNP+Growth.png Commentary - Protecting the Federal Reserve Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/6/23/the-case-for-strengthening-automatic-fiscal-stabilizers monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1561288554194-7ZPXFXHPNT4YQYD4AI9G/FOMC+Neutral+Rate+Projections.png Commentary - The Case for Strengthening Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers Source: Various editions of the Summary of Economic Projections. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1561288629513-8I5A1FMAFOCGYEHRA3HZ/CBO+Automatic+Stabilizers.png Commentary - The Case for Strengthening Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: CBO. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1561288692427-UZXMWFGUIM9LK9ECB9WC/Sahm+Indicator.png Commentary - The Case for Strengthening Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: FRED and authors’ calculations based on Figure 2 in Claudia Sahm, “Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals.” https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/6/14/the-brave-new-world-of-monetary-policy-operations monthly 0.5 2019-06-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1560524758319-1N3KQAD7MWTO8RMZ60FE/Funds+Rate.png Commentary - The Brave New World of Monetary Policy Operations Sources: FRED and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1560524817845-BRMY9JBRQEM36W09EZOO/Reserve+Demand+Chart.png Commentary - The Brave New World of Monetary Policy Operations Notes: RD reserve demand. RS reserve supply. The shaded area in the figures denotes the federal funds rate target range. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/6/9/italeave-the-renewed-threat-of-a-parallel-currency monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1560113540066-WCUC3U45UKSM25TB4F99/MiniBOT+Sample+Image+for+5+Euro+Note.png Commentary - Italeave: The Renewed Threat of a Parallel Currency Source: here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1560113616869-B80QKM2FQHRAB7E0XZMQ/Euro+Area+Growth+Since+1999.png Commentary - Italeave: The Renewed Threat of a Parallel Currency Source: OECD. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1560113673199-DTM6D0C8ZKKOSJOU1YON/Italy+Current+Account+and+Primary+Surplus.png Commentary - Italeave: The Renewed Threat of a Parallel Currency Source: IMF April 2019 WEO database. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1560113728277-GKGV9F9EXHZRY13JTUT8/Italy+Spain+Yield+Spreads.png Commentary - Italeave: The Renewed Threat of a Parallel Currency Source: ECB through April 2019 and updates using 10-year sovereign yields from Bloomberg. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/5/30/improving-us-monetary-policy-communications monthly 0.5 2019-06-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1559245041916-0WPMOB2NKWM4RLJSOAIL/Interview+Topic+Frequency.png Commentary - Improving U.S. Monetary Policy Communications Source: Interviews of 24 former central bank officials, academics and market economists in the first quarter of 2019. The allocation of responses by topic is based on the authors’ judgment. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1559245101964-AM771GSRD4NWIG4N6XMO/Statement+Complexity.png Commentary - Improving U.S. Monetary Policy Communications Note: The size of the bubbles indicates the number of words in the statement. The dashed horizontal line denotes the average grade level of 16.6: a college senior (or a post-graduate student). Source: Davis and Wynne (2016) and authors’ calculations using a readability calculator. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/4/28/house-prices-at-risk monthly 0.5 2019-04-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1556455589091-VJPG33VXS1MVVEFXOH0G/Shiller+House+Prices.png Commentary - House Prices at Risk Source: Website of Robert Shiller; based on Figure 3.1 of Irrational Exuberance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1556455645987-5GEDAOC27POOGF8GLY80/Ratio+of+Housing+Wealth+to+Service+Flows.png Commentary - House Prices at Risk Note: The horizontal blue line is the mean ratio (11.0), while the shaded area depicts one standard deviation (plus or minus 1.5) on each side of the mean. Sources: Federal Reserve (Financial Accounts of the United States, LM155035015.Q) and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1556455721176-YJF6730DZHNHV2HGWWNQ/HaR.png Commentary - House Prices at Risk Source: IMF GFSR, April 2019. The IMF authors separately supplied the 95th and 50th percentile estimates for the advanced economies. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/4/21/communicating-monetary-policy-uncertainty monthly 0.5 2019-04-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1555937654041-7PBD4HTKQILYCCYICUS1/FOMC+Minutes+Figure+5.png Commentary - Communicating Monetary Policy Uncertainty Source: Figure 5, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 19-20, 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1555939045625-O4LYAZB976IS8W199Z3Q/Confidence+Interval.png Commentary - Communicating Monetary Policy Uncertainty Source: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, 2012 to 2019; Table 5 in Reifschneider and Tulip; and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/4/14/qualifying-for-the-fed monthly 0.5 2019-04-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1555262720636-4E1YERHSR1AQ2BO8M4S2/Inflation.png Commentary - Qualifying for the Fed Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/3/31/dot-ology-what-can-we-learn-from-the-dot-plot monthly 0.5 2019-04-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1554052284585-Y1L7E54N4A00B6Q808YJ/Dot+plot+2019-03-20.png Commentary - Dot-ology: What can we learn from the dot plot? Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, Summary of Economic Projections, March 20, 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1554052555714-BCEA8L4IXH5D9TCNJSE2/Short+and+Long+R-star.png Commentary - Dot-ology: What can we learn from the dot plot? Source: Authors’ calculations based on FOMC SEP, 2012 to 2018. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/3/17/stress-testing-financial-networks-the-case-of-ccps monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552850448637-90VMGJETGQZTGV2ZCB5E/BIS+d181+Figure+3+Image+copy.png Commentary - Stress Testing Financial Networks: The Case of CCPs Source: Figure 3 in Analysis of Central Clearing Interdependencies, August 9, 2018. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552850515621-GJMO4M00107YD17IRQUA/Waterfall.png Commentary - Stress Testing Financial Networks: The Case of CCPs Source: Treasury Office of Financial Research, Figure 1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552850637163-IRL4NM3EB04XFXVVXBNM/Table+of+Resources.png Commentary - Stress Testing Financial Networks: The Case of CCPs Source: Authors’ calculations based on CPMI-IOSCO quarterly disclosures (CME, LCH1 and LCH2). Note that the CME does not disclose the total value of either open interest or gross notional amount outstanding. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552850692223-SAP181XX3KHUC2IYMVAN/CME+and+LCH.png Commentary - Stress Testing Financial Networks: The Case of CCPs Note: The plot shows the weight sum of SRISK of the publicly traded parent firms of CMs at the CME and LCH using weights based on 2017 gross notional derivatives exposure. Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from the NYU Stern Volatility Lab, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and various firm disclosures. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552850730573-LPPQRMCJYA9ZQZQCLR96/CME+Regional+Breakdown.png Commentary - Stress Testing Financial Networks: The Case of CCPs Note: The index of client-margin-weighted shares of CME SRISK decomposed by world region. The fraction accounted for by Canadian clearing members is never more than 0.6 percent of the total, so it is included in the U.S. total. Source: Authors’ calculation based on data from the NYU Stern Volatility Lab and FIA. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/3/10/what-risk-professionals-want monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552241021234-GSMI6YT4HBITRSJIB5S9/Basel+III+standard.png Commentary - What Risk Professionals Want Note: Data are from a consistent sample of 84 large internationally active banks with capital in excess of €3 billion. Source: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Quantitative Impact Studies (various years). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552241063846-IR3IO18JNALAB1OIJVZW/Leverage+question.png Commentary - What Risk Professionals Want Note: The bar associated with each leverage requirement shows the share of the respondents who selected that option. Source: Courtesy of the organizers of the 20th GARP Risk Convention. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1552241104690-OOLQPYV0FYQUEX4FQNFE/CCP+Question.png Commentary - What Risk Professionals Want Note: The bar associated with each alternative shows the share of the respondents who selected that option. Source: Courtesy of the organizers of the 20th GARP Risk Convention. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/2/24/inflation-risks-and-inflation-expectations monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1551053867191-25ISST0KIS11RM8US0TF/Inflation+and+Expectations.png Commentary - Inflation risks and inflation expectations Notes: Inflation is the annual percent change of the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Expectations are from the Federal Reserve’s FRB/US model of the economy. Source: Figure 2.2, Hooper, Mishkin and Sufi, Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is it Hibernating? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1551053933283-26SL8I808PS2990SD3GD/MSA+Coefficients.png Commentary - Inflation risks and inflation expectations Source: Figure 3.3, Hooper, Mishkin and Sufi, Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is it Hibernating? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1551054100083-8K9G6THGFHOMZGOCJKFW/Labor+Fiscal+Scatter.png Commentary - Inflation risks and inflation expectations Note: The data from 2018 to 2020 are from the CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019-2029. Sources: FRED and CBO. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/2/17/improving-resilience-banks-and-non-bank-intermediaries monthly 0.5 2019-02-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1550442649777-LEBB5UTC2XVRLPM6S6PH/Basel+III.png Commentary - Improving resilience: banks and non-bank intermediaries Source: Basel Committee Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) estimated ratio of common-equity tier 1 (CET1) capital to risk-weighted assets or tier 1 capital to total assets. Data from 2011 to 2017 are from a consistent sample of 84 large internationally active banks with capital in excess of €3 billion. Earlier data are for a slightly different sample. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2010 and 2018), various tables. The most recent report is here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1550442717600-V6TKA1G5R3OCSEMA8ZFW/FSB.png Commentary - Improving resilience: banks and non-bank intermediaries Source: Data are for the assets of financial institutions in 29 jurisdictions. Other non-bank intermediaries include money market funds, hedge funds, other investment funds, real estate investment trusts, trust companies, finance companies, broker-dealers, structured finance vehicles, central counterparties, captive finance institutions and money lenders, and a category labeled “other.” See Financial Stability Board, monitoring dataset. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1550442755990-YQ3AUB0GXJX1YZYIUX1J/Interconnectedness.png Commentary - Improving resilience: banks and non-bank intermediaries Source: Data are for 20 jurisdictions plus the euro area. See Financial Stability Board, Exhibit 3-3. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/2/11/common-ownership-back-to-basics monthly 0.5 2019-02-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1549894180091-LKDXYCSF4Z8JG1TJJY7E/Share+of+Market+Cap+ICI.png Commentary - Common Ownership: Back to Basics Source: Based on figure 2.8 in 2018 Investment Company Institute Factbook, page 42. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1549894228645-TK9X5N3MKO29LHCMII52/Share+of+SP500+Held+by+Institutions.png Commentary - Common Ownership: Back to Basics Note: According to BCS, their scraped measure seeks to address previously identified issues with the Thompson-Reuters data, including the plunge in 2011. Source: Figure 4, Backus Conlon Sinkinson, Common Ownership in America: 1980-2017. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1549894285135-HNS2TPMZ4D0NXVXXUBVW/Profit+Weights.png Commentary - Common Ownership: Back to Basics Note: The mean excludes the own-firm weight, which is normalized to 1. Source: Figure 1, Backus Conlon Sinkinson, Common Ownership in America: 1980-2017. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/2/3/fomc-communication-what-a-long-strange-trip-its-been monthly 0.5 2019-02-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1549209626502-C65LOD0UNK0FGBL4QQ1R/FF+Target+Changes.png Commentary - FOMC Communication: What a Long, Strange Trip It's Been Source: Table 1 in Thornton and Federal Reserve. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1549209697263-56M6BDU2SAMFQKQ5MT24/Inflation+Forecast+Dispersion.png Commentary - FOMC Communication: What a Long, Strange Trip It's Been Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/1/26/china-mao-strikes-back monthly 0.5 2019-02-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1548503526224-XKMLZ43HDDOZQJKGHJSA/Economic+Policy+Uncertainty.png Commentary - China: Mao Strikes Back Notes: The China measure is indexed to 100 for the average from 1995 to 2011, while the global indicator is indexed to 100 for the average from 1997 to 2015. Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1548503573359-9VHSGQU34AFQ23C2FF7W/Asian+Growth.png Commentary - China: Mao Strikes Back Note: According to the Maddison Project Database 2018 (variable cgdppc), the 2016 China-U.S. ratio of real GDP per capita (measured in 2011 U.S. dollars) is 23.2%. For each economy, the start year is that when the ratio to the United States of real GDP per capita (orange circle) was closest to 23.2%. Source: Based on Lardy, The State Strikes Back, Figure 2.1, but using Maddison Project Database 2018. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1548503648304-8O0OLPBE9DVDWT3RMX4S/ROA+for+SOEs.png Commentary - China: Mao Strikes Back Source: Interpolated by authors using chart on page 19 of IMF Article IV Staff Report (Country Report No. 18/240), June 28, 2018. The IMF Report cites as data sources CEIC and the China Ministry of Finance. (This chart is similar to Figure 2.3 in The State Strikes Back, but includes services as well as industrial firms, adding to the ROA gap.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1548503697064-5J12DEUXHABA7FEAUE73/Loan+Flow.png Commentary - China: Mao Strikes Back Source: Lardy, The State Strikes Back, Figure 4.1. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/1/18/antitrust-and-the-financial-sector monthly 0.5 2019-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1547849590232-GBVG4A49AGNQW5OVJRIF/Five+Bank+Concentration.png Commentary - Antitrust and the Financial Sector Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1547849662273-AZX1G4KSAGJ6F4GN8DJV/Bank+HHIs.png Commentary - Antitrust and the Financial Sector Note: The measures are Herfindahl-Hirschman indexes (HHI), a widely used concentration metric. The HHI sums the squared market shares (expressed as percentages) of all the firms in a relevant market. Source: Federal Reserve Board; data provided by Robert Adams. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1547849721478-LV79H798E5TWIM39X49H/Figure+3.png Commentary - Antitrust and the Financial Sector Note: The data are based on Forbes, Fortune and the Statistics of U.S. Business (compiled by the U.S. Bureau of the Census). Source: White and Yang, “What Has Been Happening to Aggregate Concentration in the U.S. Economy in the 21st Century?” March 2017. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/1/13/bad-precedent monthly 0.5 2019-01-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1547407804848-PYTUJDD9ORSDN9WVT38B/CB+Transparency+and+Inflation.png Commentary - Bad Precedent Source: Data are country averages from 1998 to 2014. Inflation is end-of-period annual data from the October 2018 IMF WEO database. The transparency index is from the Dincer and Eichengreen 2015 update. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/12/9/navigating-in-cloudy-skies monthly 0.5 2018-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1544356053255-17JKIX7XPLFMJAQOVIJ2/Neutral+Rate.png Commentary - Navigating in Cloudy Skies Source: Various issues of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1544356260679-05O619NCGPSI9QMPFGZQ/U+STAR.png Commentary - Navigating in Cloudy Skies Sources: Various issues of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections and (for the CBO data) ALFRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1544356346900-QQHUAT78NS925OY6Q14L/Taylor+Rules.png Commentary - Navigating in Cloudy Skies Notes: HLW is the latest Holston Laubach Williams one-sided estimate of r*. The black bars represent a modified Taylor rule based on the unemployment gap (using the CBO’s latest estimate of u*), while the red bars are based on the output gap between current real GDP and the CBO estimate of potential GDP. Headline and core are measures of inflation based on the price index of personal consumption expenditures. A value of b=0.5 corresponds to the original Taylor rule, while b=1 reflects the “balanced approach” that doubles the weight on resource utilization. Source: FRB Atlanta, Taylor rule utility. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/12/2/e-pluribus-unum-single-vs-multiple-point-of-entry-resolution monthly 0.5 2018-12-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1543779135741-N3YOMROM25JD7YFLS6PN/SPOE+Diagram+1.png Commentary - E Pluribus Unum: single vs. multiple point of entry resolution https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1543779199895-IAKYA7W8SO80NFDC35K7/SPOE+Diagram+2.png Commentary - E Pluribus Unum: single vs. multiple point of entry resolution https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/11/18/from-basel-to-the-volcker-rule-a-finreg-glossary monthly 0.5 2018-11-19 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/11/11/us-monetary-policy-spillovers monthly 0.5 2018-11-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1541966681085-LBCDQVSF9UFZ9RQW0439/Own+Policy+Impact.png Commentary - U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers Notes: The figure reports leverage, computed using the market value of equity and book value of liabilities, following a sustained monetary policy easing as measured by the deviations from the eight-quarter average in the two-year sovereign rate. Data for 988 publicly listed financial firms in 17 advanced economies plus Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. Source: Cecchetti, Mancini-Griffoli, Narita and Sahay, Figure 1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1541966720548-00A917TF900Z66TDKQN7/US+Policy+Impact.png Commentary - U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers Notes: The figure reports leverage, computed using the market value of equity and book value of liabilities, following a sustained U.S. monetary policy easing as measured by the deviations from the eight-quarter average in the two-year sovereign rate. Data for 613 publicly listed financial firms in 16 advanced economies plus Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. Source: Cecchetti, Mancini-Griffoli, Narita and Sahay, Figure 1. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/10/28/taking-the-sock-out-of-fsoc monthly 0.5 2018-10-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1540758612764-UNBGKLS6LI7BGXTT3587/Leverage+ratios.png Commentary - Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC Notes: The numerator of each ratio is the market value of equity. The denominator is the sum of debt and the market value of equity. These leverage measures exclude “separate accounts” that are segregated from the firm’s “general account.” Final observation as of October 12, 2018. Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1540758763541-8GQT7RSD3DQ9KYQSOGHX/SRISK+Levels.png Commentary - Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC Notes: Final observation as of October 19, 2018. The SRISK measures use the Volatility Lab’s default inclusion ratio of 40% for “separate accounts.” Excluding all separate accounts lowers measured SRISK, but changes neither the pattern over time nor the relationships among the three largest insurers. Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1540758845049-C7KWOB37NQTU4ORU7USH/SRISK+Rankings+Table.png Commentary - Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. The data are based on the V-Lab default settings for capital requirements (8%) and for the percentage of “separate accounts” to include for insurers (40%). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/10/21/negative-nominal-interest-rates-and-banking monthly 0.5 2018-10-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1540153434687-LBWPQCEM4NJ26GKVK0RB/Interest+Rates.png Commentary - Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Banking Source: European Central Bank (including private deposit rates). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1540153482315-KKA3MY1T6JNNZOEQ08BX/NIM+and+ROA.png Commentary - Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Banking Notes: From 2007 to 2009, the chart shows fourth-quarter readings; from 2010 to 2013, it is the average of second- and fourth-quarter readings; from 2014, it is the average of all four quarters. Source: European Central Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1540153539383-X33BIGE44I0GVQUBGVW5/Credit+to+GDP.png Commentary - Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Banking Source: BIS. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/10/14/assessing-housing-risk monthly 0.5 2018-10-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1539554592998-78MNRB0WGWKDCRNULDKL/Real+Estate+and+Mortg+Fin.png Commentary - Assessing Housing Risk Note: These measures include nonprofit organizations, as well as households. Source: Financial Accounts of the United States, Table B.101. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1539554675117-N40EPFRXZ55PCQTRUB1X/Wolff+Table.png Commentary - Assessing Housing Risk Source: Tables 7 and 8 in Wolff (based on the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1539554746808-8QRQ5J91M500RL314WX6/Normalized+Deviations.png Commentary - Assessing Housing Risk Note: The database indexes housing prices and disposable income to 2005=100 for each country. Each bar shows the difference between the national ratio of house prices to disposable income and the average of that ratio since 1975, all divided by the standard deviation of the ratio. A positive (negative) number means the ratio is above (below) its long-term average. The aggregate measure weights each country by its 2005 PPP-adjusted real GDP. The countries are ranked by their 2018 Q2 ratios. Source: International House Price Database, Globalization Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1539554802759-1L8TGWWB2LCEV727X5AU/Chart+5+FRBNY.png Commentary - Assessing Housing Risk Note: Above 100, the loan exceeds the market value of the home, a condition of negative equity. Source: Chart 5 in Fuster, Guttman-Kenney and Haughwout, “Tracking and Stress-Testing U.S. Household Leverage,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review 24, no.1, September 2018. Reproduced with permission. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1539554859591-ASFIDROJZJBPC2X3V2LI/Stress+Test+by+State.png Commentary - Assessing Housing Risk Source: Based on Table 3, Panel B in Fuster, Guttman-Kenney and Haughwout. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/9/30/fema-for-finance monthly 0.5 2018-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1538352809968-DOH44Z0LYC2CD11SIHGJ/BoE+Systemic+Risk+Survey.png Commentary - FEMA for Finance Source: Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/9/24/pitfalls-of-a-reserves-only-narrow-bank monthly 0.5 2018-09-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1537784518416-RGQCJUYXZIWVRTE7SUR5/Uninsured+Deposits.png Commentary - Pitfalls of a Reserves-only Narrow Bank Note: The abrupt shifts during and after the financial crisis appear to reflect the changes in the scope and scale of the guarantees extended in the course of the FDIC’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP) that began in 2008 and expired at the end of 2012. Source: FDIC, Quarterly Banking Profile, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1537784566952-3X3OG2U7XEUIRXGRYQIQ/Loans+and+Leases.png Commentary - Pitfalls of a Reserves-only Narrow Bank Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/9/16/illuminating-gdp monthly 0.5 2018-09-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1537099108691-M1HL72PVG3J0GV868M4S/korean+1992+and+2008.png Commentary - Illuminating GDP Source: Figure 2, Henderson, Storeygard and Weil. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1537099226664-SPFCFUMEAJIJ4SBAHD82/Illuminating+GDP.png Commentary - Illuminating GDP Notes: Data are from Panel B of Figure 6 in Henderson, Storeygard and Weil and the Freedom House. The difference between “free” and “not free” countries is based on the average of both the FWI political rights and civil liberties indices over the period 1992 to 2006; countries with an index level of greater than 4 are not free, and those with an index below 2 are free.) The dashed lines are constructed from the regression of GDP growth on the growth of light, and on the product of a dummy variable that takes on a value of 1 for the “not free” countries and the growth of light. The estimates are based on the entire data set, including “partially free” countries that are not shown in the plot. The intercept is restricted to be the same for all data. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1537099285188-W1F5V1P1CFJ9XG0Y3TQ1/IMF+SDDS+Map.png Commentary - Illuminating GDP Source: IMF. The categories are: the 2012 Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus (SDDS Plus), the 1996 Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), and the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System (e-GDDS). NSDP is the National Summary Data Page. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/8/31/what-should-the-fed-own monthly 0.5 2018-09-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535746747324-K2FHE4WQGGXUQK0A4A09/Fed+Securities+Holdings.png Commentary - What Should the Fed Own? Source: FRBNY SOMA Historical Data. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535746805097-VVMQ0E86T1E162PLFBH4/Duration+vs+Debt-GDP+Ratio.png Commentary - What Should the Fed Own? Sources: SOMA Historical Average Duration of Treasury holdings; FRED for ratio to GDP of gross federal debt held by the public. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535746857276-WSASJEBXYEZ94900J1BH/Average+maturity+and+debt+ratio.png Commentary - What Should the Fed Own? Source: Average maturity as in Chart 2, Greenwood, Hanson and Stein, The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool (original data and update through 2017 kindly provided by these authors); FRED for ratio to GDP of gross federal debt held by the public. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/9/2/financial-crisis-the-endgame monthly 0.5 2018-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535923572371-HVARL0HL4ULHDVH7UX9B/libor+ois+spread.png Commentary - Financial Crisis: The Endgame Note: The three vertical lines denote the BNP Paribas (August 9, 2007), Bear Stearns (March 14, 2008) and Lehman (September 15, 2008) events, respectively. Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535923622452-GQ22315481FMZXPMY7II/KBW+Bank+Index.png Commentary - Financial Crisis: The Endgame Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535923766778-YEE17KVWJPHVCN43JCYK/Aggregate+SRISK.png Commentary - Financial Crisis: The Endgame Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab, which kindly provided data based on its U.S. MES model. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535923841946-YOMM85OK6LM0G9QGA9SF/SRISK+by+Institution.png Commentary - Financial Crisis: The Endgame Note: With aggregate SRISK close to $1 trillion as of August 29, 2008, the chart shows that $100 billion of SRISK corresponding to about 10 percent of the total. Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535923885954-NCV0EDYFN8RQ082REK3Z/IMF+GFSR+Table.png Commentary - Financial Crisis: The Endgame Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2009, Table 1.4, page 36. Notes: The leverage ratio is the ratio of total common equity to total assets. The authors’ calculation of the drain-adjusted leverage ratio is based on an interpolation using the IMF estimated change between the end-2008 leverage ratio and the writedown-adjusted leverage ratio as well as the reported expected writedowns and the net drain on equity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535924005765-FUS4D4HZAF2PPXTWE7ZR/Fed+Assets.png Commentary - Financial Crisis: The Endgame Notes: Lending to intermediaries includes the dollar swap lines, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Treasury Auction Facility. The three vertical lines denote the BNP Paribas (August 9, 2007), Bear Stearns (March 14, 2008) and Lehman (September 15, 2008) events, respectively. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/8/26/mutual-funds-common-ownership-and-ownership-concentration monthly 0.5 2018-08-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1535314048790-F3MSXAC2ZVFO3AC00CGC/Index+and+Actively+Managed+Funds.png Commentary - Mutual Funds, "Common Ownership" and Ownership Concentration Source: 2018 Investment Company Fact Book, Figure 2.8, pg. 43. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/8/17/sources-of-finance-internal-versus-external monthly 0.5 2018-08-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1534538529497-CN8G72GPN8KBTIIZ7PCY/Sources+of+Finance.png Commentary - Sources of Finance: Internal versus External Source: All data are for the nonfinancial business sector. Data from Table F.102, Financial Accounts of the United States, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System are adjusted for reinvestment of earnings without current-cost adjustment using Foreign Direct Investment in the U.S., Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retained earnings is computed as the difference between gross investment, including direct investment abroad, less the sum of market financing and bank borrowing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1534538563697-5ICMAL2498ZD8CR7D9UB/Equity+Issuance.png Commentary - Sources of Finance: Internal versus External Source: Data are for the nonfinancial business sector, line 38 of Table F.102, Financial Accounts of the United States, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/8/3/trump-v-fed monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1533353062198-7A0GXXJHJETN5UV5IBAS/Fiscal+Stimulus.png Commentary - Trump v. Fed Note: The fiscal thrust on the vertical axis is the annual change in the cyclically adjusted fiscal position as a percent of GDP. The unemployment gap is the difference between the unemployment rate and the CBO estimate of the natural rate (u*). The data through 2016 use the CBO’s estimates of automatic stabilizers to show the change in the federal government cyclically adjusted fiscal position as a percent of GDP. The estimates for 2017 to 2019 utilize the change in the IMF World Economic Outlook measure of the general government deficit as a percent of potential GDP. The unemployment gaps for 2018 and 2019 utilize the IMF WEO forecasts for the unemployment rate and the CBO’s estimate of u*. The vertical blue line denotes a zero unemployment gap, while the horizontal blue line marks a neutral fiscal stance. The figure is similar to the chart on page 9 of the IMF 2018 Article IV report on the United States. Sources: Congressional Budget Office, IMF and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1533353113977-DC5L2H8PLZSEJXWDSXNM/Long-term+Inflation+Expectations.png Commentary - Trump v. Fed Notes: The solid red line is the median projection for average CPI inflation over the next 10 years from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, while the surrounding gray-shaded area shows the interquartile range. The dotted black line is the five-year-forward, five-year breakeven inflation rate based on the market for U.S. nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury notes. Sources: FRB Philadelphia and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/7/29/gdp-one-size-no-longer-fits-all monthly 0.5 2018-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1532913794400-AADFCRDW74JCDTCRJFPW/Seasonal+Adjustment.png Commentary - GDP: One size no longer fits all Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1532913829312-V9CZ005VBFMNM7TOKZQK/Average+Adjustment.png Commentary - GDP: One size no longer fits all Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and authors’ calculation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1532913886824-L1MZH5JU2R6OXKJ4STNB/3Q+1990.png Commentary - GDP: One size no longer fits all Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/7/19/bank-capital-and-stress-tests-the-foundation-of-a-thriving-economy monthly 0.5 2018-07-23 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/7/15/cyber-instability monthly 0.5 2023-10-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1531700955536-9TX3X22MIKSYXNOZNZHY/PRC+Records+Exposed+in+Data+Breaches.png Commentary - Cyber Instability Note: The sample includes all breaches (750) in financial services during the period. Source: Privacy Rights Clearinghouse. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1531701067138-M68M5VRBV7X6V95ED9K7/Verizon+breach+chart.png Commentary - Cyber Instability Note: The Verizon reports purposely exclude from the sample tens of thousands of “botnet”-driven breaches of bank web applications. Otherwise, “nothing else would come to light” (see page 31 here). Source: Verizon Data Breach Investigations Reports, 2014 through 2018, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1531701106515-BRA5MBYW09A9A4VD6O3O/BoE+Systemic+Risk+Survey.png Commentary - Cyber Instability Source: Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/7/8/target2-balances-mask-reduced-financial-fragmentation-in-the-euro-area monthly 0.5 2018-07-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1531057882759-EX4DCWD1GF1159IMG9TN/Target2+Balances.png Commentary - TARGET2 Balances Mask Reduced Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Source: European Central Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1531058025053-8KE7B3P4LYGFSYW19FFU/Customer+Purchase.png Commentary - TARGET2 Balances Mask Reduced Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1531058066089-EEGYX0D2495HTH8GB274/Bank+of+Italy+Purchase.png Commentary - TARGET2 Balances Mask Reduced Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1531058125251-BZ7BQHEDOAM7CFTT7K99/Target2+and+Securities+Holdings.png Commentary - TARGET2 Balances Mask Reduced Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Note: The diamonds (and associated numbers) sum each NCB’s securities holdings and TARGET2 balances. A negative number means that the NCB’s TARGET2 liabilities exceed its securities holdings. A positive number is the level of securities that an NCB would hold following a complete rebalancing. Source: European Central Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/6/17/inflation-policy monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529232281065-0GKVM472SCJB7R51IF61/Trimmed+Mean+Inflation.png Commentary - Inflation Policy Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529232321956-BOMQZ56OGGEQHLZ43JTV/Correlations.png Commentary - Inflation Policy Notes: The sample includes 146 countries for which there are at least 30 annual observations. Global inflation is the GDP-weighted average inflation rate of these countries. Source: IMF WEO database. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529232377627-ZC00QKM0HEC15YF0RK5C/Advanced+Economy+Inflation.png Commentary - Inflation Policy Source: IMF WEO database. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529232426339-3TQVFKUQY16UNS851JWY/FOMC+SEP.png Commentary - Inflation Policy Source: Federal Open Market Committee, Survey of Economic Projections, various editions. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/6/10/banks-and-money-or-watch-out-what-you-wish-for monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528671442603-ETB0SVM8SHSD4D16DUPV/Money+Multipliers.png Commentary - Banks and Money, Or Watch out What You Wish For Sources: Swiss National Bank and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/6/2/italeave-mother-of-all-financial-crises monthly 0.5 2018-06-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1527939671833-858CC13XNH1G7JXNVVWI/Italian+Bond+Yields.png Commentary - Italeave: Mother of all financial crises Note: The data are weekly, with the exception of daily observations for the final week ending 1 June 2018. Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1527939717776-QK65NQNM99F94J30S11Z/Italy+CDS.png Commentary - Italeave: Mother of all financial crises Note: The data are weekly, with the exception of daily observations for the final week ending 1 June 2018. Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1527939817138-SLY94S4A4BSWQBYWVHRO/Patacon+Kehoe.png Commentary - Italeave: Mother of all financial crises https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1527939844656-KEY4HJGIOFXNBRZIFY5E/Patacon+Back+Kehoe.png Commentary - Italeave: Mother of all financial crises Source: Timothy Kehoe, Figure 15, “What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?”, 2003. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/5/27/to-form-a-more-perfect-union monthly 0.5 2018-05-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1527593348259-V5TS6RERXLYI0U6U46K3/Yield+Spreads+2018-05-28.png Commentary - To Form a More Perfect Union Note: The spreads are based on the harmonized EMU average monthly convergence criterion yields for government bonds close to a 10-year maturity. The final observations are as of May 29 for 10-year government bond yield spreads. Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg, Investor.com, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/5/20/making-unelected-power-legitimate monthly 0.5 2018-05-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1526824254226-WDFRQJCQBQR96KJCVO21/Tucker+Table.png Commentary - Making Unelected Power Legitimate SEC: Securities and Exchange Commission. CFPB: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. MP: Monetary policy (inflation and economic growth). FR: Financial resilience policy. CRA: Community Reinvestment Act. Note: The entries in the cells reflect the authors’ views, rather than Tucker’s. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/5/6/banking-the-masses-2018-edition monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1525634138017-TEY7CW02YIP09CYK8M3K/Access+vs+Income.png Commentary - Banking the Masses: 2018 Edition Notes: Financial access means having an account at a financial institution or a mobile phone payments account. An adult is at least 15 years old. The red line is the fit for the 2017 sample that includes 140 countries (black dots). The blue line is the fit for the 2011 data (not shown). The horizontal scale is logarithmic. Sources: World Bank Findex (2017), World Bank development database, and authors’ regressions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1525634197308-EMK3VU1NQW2PCXC1PICN/Access+and+Characteristics.png Commentary - Banking the Masses: 2018 Edition Note: The black diamonds represent the share of adults with accounts that are inactive (no deposits or withdrawals over the past year). Source: World Bank Findex. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1525634235031-GMJ70VE1NIMMP68698BY/India+Access+by+Characteristics.png Commentary - Banking the Masses: 2018 Edition Note: The black diamonds represent the share of adults in India with accounts that are inactive (no deposits or withdrawals over the past year). Source: World Bank Findex. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1525634278620-6X4B2SWZ6ISMHV67HM12/Where+are+the+unbanked.png Commentary - Banking the Masses: 2018 Edition Note: Red diamonds indicate those with mobile phones. Source: World Bank Findex. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1525634316370-DP9G2AA7N4DV74FK538T/Paying+Utility+Bills.png Commentary - Banking the Masses: 2018 Edition Source: World Bank Findex 2017. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1525634356143-BETK9CGT61IMWOIRAJZS/Access+by+region.png Commentary - Banking the Masses: 2018 Edition Notes: Data on mobile accounts are not available for “high-income” or “world.” Source: World Bank Findex. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1525634437113-ROODQ32RO923TLW669DJ/Demographics.png Commentary - Banking the Masses: 2018 Edition Note: These projections are based on the medium fertility variant. Source: World Population Prospects 2017, United Nations Population Division. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/4/22/universal-central-bank-digital-currency monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1524407001604-0S2GQKTCA5Y9946RZDOV/Digital+Money+Shares.png Commentary - Universal Central Bank Digital Currency? Notes: For each aggregate, we report the ratio of the amount excluding paper currency—that is, the digital portion—to the total. The euro-area shares are based on country membership at the time. Sources: FRED, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/4/15/on-the-distribution-of-wealth monthly 0.5 2018-04-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1523807504904-O90KNDHJNGOW2SXP18PU/Schularick+Wealth+vs+Income+Shares.png Commentary - On the Distribution of Wealth Source: Based on table 4 of Kuhn, Schularick and Steins including a 2016 update kindly provided by these authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1523807559434-LH09CNUNHJ7V6QJ6ZLRB/OCED+Wealth+Shares.png Commentary - On the Distribution of Wealth Source: OECD wealth distribution database. The latest data range from 2016 (United States) to 2012 (Canada, Norway and Spain). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1523807616959-Y01U9H4ZSP6WOII0LFWX/Wollf+Portfolio+Shares.png Commentary - On the Distribution of Wealth Note: The numbers shown in black are wealth shares, while those in blue are leverage ratios. Source: Based on table 7 of Wolff. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1523807669030-FFWATHKDST34PVHUFP18/Schularick+Wealth+over+Time.png Commentary - On the Distribution of Wealth Note: Each bar (as well as its red data label) shows the aggregate net worth of households and nonprofits in trillions of 2016 U.S. dollars, using the end-year CPI as the deflator. The KSS wealth shares are used to decompose the ownership by wealth group, with the holdings of the bottom 50% shown in black, as well as in the rectangles. Those of the top 10% are shown by the gray-shaded regions. Sources: Table 4 of Kuhn, Schularick and Steins (including a 2016 update kindly provided by these authors), Financial Accounts of the United States and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/4/8/alternative-reference-rates-meeting-the-challenges monthly 0.5 2018-04-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1523215466822-WHPJZ95KGYIWYE27S4LE/LIBOR+OIS.png Commentary - Alternative Reference Rates: Meeting the Challenges Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1523215725057-ZXW3Z5G9JK78C888CDWN/US+Money+Market+Volume.png Commentary - Alternative Reference Rates: Meeting the Challenges Notes: Average volumes for the first half of 2017, except for 3-month T-bills, which are preliminary estimates from FINRA Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) data over August and September 2017. Source: Second Report of the Alternative Reference Rates Committee, Figure 3, pg. 11. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/4/1/liquidity-regulation-is-back monthly 0.5 2018-04-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1522600869091-42YX8FFJJZF9FLP3A1SS/RR+IP+and+M2MM.png Commentary - Liquidity Regulation is Back Source: The M2 Money Multiplier is the ratio of Friedman and Schwartz M2 to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base from FRED, industrial production is from FRED, and the reserve requirement is from Feinman, Table A.1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1522600912007-6OPUYIKG6851F9D1G179/HQLA.png Commentary - Liquidity Regulation is Back Source: H.8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/3/25/size-is-overrated monthly 0.5 2018-03-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1522002016718-MLD6KOEMNCDOXMKJX2KX/Systemic+Importance+1.png Commentary - Size is Overrated Source: Based on bank holding company data in Treasury Office of Financial Research update of Size Alone is Not Sufficient To Identify Systemically Important Banks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1522002066278-YKA9MENB2YDO47M0852W/Systemic+Importance+2.png Commentary - Size is Overrated Source: Based on data in Treasury Office of Financial Research update of Size Alone is Not Sufficient To Identify Systemically Important Banks. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/3/18/tougher-capital-regulation-pays-off monthly 0.5 2018-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1521404979541-LNBD8QBKWO6LHQ7S5D97/PBR.png Commentary - Tougher capital regulation pays off Source: Bogdanova, Fender and Takáts (2018), FDIC Global Capital Index, and authors’ calculations. The mid-2017 dots are for G-SIBs only. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1521405032379-ZZ16T6RRL6JBUEDXUDB3/Leverage+ratio.png Commentary - Tougher capital regulation pays off Source: FDIC Global Capital Index and authors’ calculations. Leverage ratios are IFRS asset-weighted averages of the ratio of tangible equity to tangible assets (where equity and assets are adjusted by subtracting goodwill, other intangibles and deferred tax assets). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/3/11/ten-years-after-bear monthly 0.5 2018-03-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1520809105682-1MVD8EJHINLIHDASH1QX/LIBOR+OIS+Spreads.png Commentary - Ten Years After Bear Note: The three vertical lines denote the BNP Paribas (August 9, 2007), Bear Stearns (March 14, 2008) and Lehman (September 15, 2008) events, respectively. Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1520809150430-QY1WRZEIU33IHYN8TT3C/Fed+Assets.png Commentary - Ten Years After Bear Notes: Lending to intermediaries includes the dollar swap lines, the PDCF and the TAF. The three vertical lines denote the BNP Paribas (August 9, 2007), Bear Stearns (March 14, 2008) and Lehman (September 15, 2008) events, respectively. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/3/4/bank-financing-the-disappearance-of-interbank-lending monthly 0.5 2018-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1520181175853-X712RW1EGUYTK2TW0MCN/Interbank+Lending.png Commentary - Bank Financing: The Disappearance of Interbank Lending Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, H.8. Note that, as of the beginning of 2018, the Federal Reserve no longer reports interbank loans separately. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1520181249442-7GNAZ9G2K0AJ6WAMBVHM/Repo.png Commentary - Bank Financing: The Disappearance of Interbank Lending Notes: We have removed the monetary authority (Fed) itself from these numbers. We included foreign bank branches in the “Non-bank” category. Source: Financial Accounts of the United States, z.1; Tables L.108, L.111, L.112, and L.130. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/2/25/relying-on-the-feds-balance-sheet monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1519602580998-IWTUWFPDZE5DZWK47C17/Exhibit4.2.png Commentary - Relying on the Fed's Balance Sheet Note: Shaded areas denote QE periods. Source: Exhibit 4.2 in Greenlaw et al, A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1519602622349-H8TUI1WGZNKVXASVLC33/Exhibit4.6.png Commentary - Relying on the Fed's Balance Sheet Note: Shaded areas denote QE periods. Source: Exhibit 4.6 in Greenlaw et al, A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/2/18/the-stubbornly-high-cost-of-remittances monthly 0.5 2018-02-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1518979591811-R2A2L8PML8KVFYPPGT03/Volume.png Commentary - The Stubbornly High Cost of Remittances Note: Inflation-adjusted sum of country-specific remittance flows. Source: World Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1518979640840-5G2PRF1INL08P1W4BETE/Time+Series.png Commentary - The Stubbornly High Cost of Remittances Note: The red and black lines show the evolution of the average cost of sending funds from any one of 48 sending countries to any of 105 receiving countries in the sample. The data include a total of 365 country pairs (or corridors). The blue line shows the cost of sending from the United States. Source: World Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1518979686454-JHAEB8UW1WA8VH1L21MM/RemittancesByCountry.png Commentary - The Stubbornly High Cost of Remittances Source: World Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/2/4/financing-intangible-capital monthly 0.5 2018-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1517778026503-UN39BSS8QOB2S3KBJ8ES/Intangibles+Investment.png Commentary - Financing Intangible Capital Source: Lee Branstetter and Daniel Sichel, “The Case for an American Productivity Revival,” Peterson Institution for International Economics, Policy Brief 17-26, June 2017. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/1/21/ensuring-stress-tests-remain-effective monthly 0.5 2018-01-22 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/1/12/money-funds-the-empire-strikes-back monthly 0.5 2018-01-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1515789857239-X3XMVZDMAEEN82EECOFB/MMMFs+by+Fund+Type.png Commentary - Money Funds -- The Empire Strikes Back? Note: The decompositions of prime, government, and tax-exempt funds are available as of April 2016. Source: Treasury Office of Financial Research U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1515789909075-9MTYS5TEJOMW0EC7RLZA/Prime+Fund+Investments.png Commentary - Money Funds -- The Empire Strikes Back? Note: The decomposition of prime funds into institutional and retail funds is available as of April 2016. Source: Treasury Office of Financial Research U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1515789968187-9SGCMW8NQ0OGUTJLY4MX/MMMF+Yields+2018-01-12.png Commentary - Money Funds -- The Empire Strikes Back? Source: SEC Money Market Fund Statistics. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/1/1/basels-refined-capital-requirements monthly 0.5 2018-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1514813000634-PKB3DK864ZHZEMYLQ7UF/HPE.png Commentary - Basel's Refined Capital Requirements Source: Basel Committee on Banking Supervisions, Regulatory consistency assessment programme (RCAP) – Analysis of risk-weighted assets for credit risk in the banking book, April 2016, Table 1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1514813056609-8HMS24I1U0FT4PG11MX9/Risk+Density.png Commentary - Basel's Refined Capital Requirements Source: BIS Annual Report 2016, Chart VI.1. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/12/10/a-monetary-policy-framework-for-the-next-recession monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1512938024124-69NJGCRCQCGSHBF0AW55/FF+v+U+Rate+Changes.png Commentary - A Monetary Policy Framework for the Next Recession Source: FRED, NBER and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1512938070530-6M38G34UT6QYDGZSUU0T/Expansion+Duration.png Commentary - A Monetary Policy Framework for the Next Recession Source: NBER. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/12/3/bitcoin-and-fundamentals monthly 0.5 2017-12-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1512329089142-734QPA2Q5STH2YQY777L/Bitcoin+Volume+China+Other.png Commentary - Bitcoin and Fundamentals Note: The China exchanges include BTCC, Huobi, and OKCoin. Source: Bitcoinity.org. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/11/26/gdp-at-risk monthly 0.5 2017-11-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1511728790276-88FCKYPSTJ0OX39TG13W/GDP+at+Risk+Figure+1.png Commentary - GDP at Risk Source: Figure 3.1.2, IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1511728855036-TEIT1SEDUYZ3TPTAKDI7/GDP+at+Risk+Figure+2.png Commentary - GDP at Risk Source: Based on figure 3.1.2, IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/11/19/fsoc-and-systemic-risk-treasurys-report monthly 0.5 2017-11-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1511119883174-XSTFTRL8C8RURBT6XMU4/SRISK.png Commentary - FSOC and Systemic Risk: Treasury's Report Note: The 2017 observation is for November 17, 2017. Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/11/12/cash-is-king-but-100-bills-are-for-crooks monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1510518112582-B44C1IYVQQQPVHL1CEII/Currency.png Commentary - Cash is king, but $100 bills are for crooks Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1510518161007-DG5N15RBAEGFD70RZH9D/10000+dollar+note.png Commentary - Cash is king, but $100 bills are for crooks Source: Wikipedia. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/11/5/banking-the-unbanked-the-indian-revolution monthly 0.5 2017-11-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1509918918899-LFFNOLWHV9AKEKEKFE2J/Table.png Commentary - Banking the Unbanked: The Indian Revolution Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. Source: PMJDY website. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1509918995037-UIUNS8ZX82HBIUVAFR63/zero+balance.png Commentary - Banking the Unbanked: The Indian Revolution Source: Table 2.1, Dutta and Das, May 2017, and PMJDY website. Note: Absent data between March and September 2017 are linearly interpolated. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/10/30/managing-risk-and-complexity-legal-entity-identifier monthly 0.5 2017-10-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1509365213400-SSWGKU6PWQ9CL9PEOHWJ/Subsidiaries.png Commentary - Managing Risk and Complexity: Legal Entity Identifier Notes: The firms are ranked by their number of subsidiaries in 2006. The BK 2016 number increased at least in part as a consequence of a mid-2007 merger. Source: Courtesy of Nicola Cetorelli, FRB New York, from the National Information Center FR Y-10. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/10/22/treasury-round-ii-the-capital-markets-report monthly 0.5 2017-10-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1508703114057-RNJN45535L4WOUFUNULS/Treasury+Report+Table.png Commentary - Treasury Round II: The Capital Markets Report Note: The totals treat bulleted items within a recommendation as distinct proposals. Source: Authors' calculations based on U.S. Treasury, A Financial System That Creates Economic Opportunities: Capital Markets, October 2017, Appendix B. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1508703197752-112AH8XZWG33JGB1MUMD/Listed+Firms.png Commentary - Treasury Round II: The Capital Markets Report Source: World Bank Development database. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1508703270495-NFGWQQDET4JEREQF5P3K/IPOs.png Commentary - Treasury Round II: The Capital Markets Report Source: Professor Jay R. Ritter IPO Data website. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1508703326910-95HSVJACAY2FDJOIHGJR/Equity+Trading+Shares+by+Venue.png Commentary - Treasury Round II: The Capital Markets Report Note: Dark pools are venues allowing for anonymous trading, including selected ATS. Other includes internal dealer systems. Source: Reproduction of Treasury report Figure 5 (attributed to Rosenblatt Securities, July 2017) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/10/14/in-defense-of-regulatory-diversity monthly 0.5 2017-10-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1507992769491-DXQW32L5JRQPHJ2X2V9Q/White+Regulatory+Network.png Commentary - In Defense of Regulatory Diversity Source: JPMorgan Chase, Annual Report Letter to Shareholders, March 30, 2012, p. 20. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/10/8/resolution-regimes-for-central-clearing-parties monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1507477032107-7FBJWRXRW4449C5KLTQT/BIS+Derivatives.png Commentary - Resolution Regimes for Central Clearing Parties Source: BIS semiannual derivatives statistics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1507477102085-GS95Y8QKEB7KZZ19HR7Z/Waterfall.png Commentary - Resolution Regimes for Central Clearing Parties Source: Treasury Office of Financial Research, Figure 1. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/10/1/black-monday-30-years-after monthly 0.5 2017-10-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1506892902993-RH6S6L5BKB944TS3SXOE/CAPE+Ratio.png Commentary - Black Monday: 30 Years After Note: Horizontal blue line denotes long-run mean. Red oval shows 1987 crash. Source: Robert Shiller website. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1506892990127-U9XR8R1DUGZD5RNSE1GJ/VXO.png Commentary - Black Monday: 30 Years After Note: Red oval highlights October 1987 episode. Source: CBOE. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/9/17/operational-risk-and-financial-stability monthly 0.5 2017-09-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1505681895632-PBL1NBU8636NCGZ8OJFR/FRB+Aggregate+Reserves.png Commentary - Operational Risk and Financial Stability Source: Federal Reserve Board. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/9/12/why-the-central-bank-should-be-a-leading-supervisor monthly 0.5 2017-09-12 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/9/3/eclipsing-libor monthly 0.5 2017-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1504464553212-MW1KEF2JAKW8WOINEN82/Unsecured+Borrowing+Euro+Money+Market.png Commentary - Eclipsing LIBOR Source: Adapted from Chart 16, ECB Euro money market survey 2015. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1504464621226-OQVCWDL2Q242ACWGUQRJ/Secured+Borrowing+Euro+Money+Market.png Commentary - Eclipsing LIBOR Source: Adapted from Chart 30, ECB Euro money market survey 2015. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1504464671635-7UQP58B76NS83LVI6PT1/Volume+of+USD+Libor+Linked+Instruments.png Commentary - Eclipsing LIBOR Notes: OTC over the counter. ETD Exchange-traded. Source: Based on Figure 1, page 243, Final Report of the Market Participants Group on Reforming Interest Rate Benchmarks, 2014, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/8/28/fire-fury-and-the-national-debt-limit monthly 0.5 2017-08-28 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/8/21/ninth-anniversary-of-the-gses-conservatorships-not-a-time-to-celebrate monthly 0.5 2017-08-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1503318423413-JTYINB7YLFSJTVZ3AF43/GSE+Conservatorship+Figure.png Commentary - Ninth Anniversary of the GSEs' Conservatorships: Not a Time to Celebrate Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1503318476548-RYMVCJZR51QYSIBSKE4E/Homeownership+Table.png Commentary - Ninth Anniversary of the GSEs' Conservatorships: Not a Time to Celebrate Source: Alex J. Pollock, “Housing Finance in International Perspective,” Testimony before the Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance, U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, September 29, 2010. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/8/6/looking-back-the-financial-crisis-began-10-years-ago-this-week monthly 0.5 2017-08-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1502050262257-W7V4B7Y8NDXZW7HZNGRU/image-asset.png Commentary - Looking Back: The Financial Crisis Began 10 Years Ago This Week Note: Vertical blue line denotes August 9, 2007 (BNP Paribas announcement). Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1502050322258-ERP19KA0LCQLD00WM8GZ/image-asset.png Commentary - Looking Back: The Financial Crisis Began 10 Years Ago This Week Note: Vertical blue line denotes August 9, 2007 (BNP Paribas announcement). Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/7/30/modernizing-the-us-payments-system-faster-cheaper-and-more-secure monthly 0.5 2017-07-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1501424062987-LVTB99UWOCH8SUJM8D9U/image-asset.png Commentary - Modernizing the U.S. Payments System: Faster, Cheaper, and more Secure Source: Faster Payments Task Force, The U.S. Path to Faster Payments: Final Report Part One, Table 2, page 18. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1501424681245-4BCFDM7NKDJZ131M1PJ4/image-asset.png Commentary - Modernizing the U.S. Payments System: Faster, Cheaper, and more Secure Source: Faster Payments Task Force, Effectiveness Criteria and Proposed Solutions; and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/7/23/the-other-trilemma-governing-global-finance monthly 0.5 2017-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1500830834034-K9UFDCCA4OY5VJVM933T/image-asset.png Commentary - The Other Trilemma: Governing Global Finance Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1500830903148-USV65D6GQBTRCE0N50U7/image-asset.png Commentary - The Other Trilemma: Governing Global Finance Source: BIS, 2017 Annual Report, Graph VI.2. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1500830957686-SEMZFQE0UOPETWVCO3WM/image-asset.png Commentary - The Other Trilemma: Governing Global Finance Source: Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (2017), “International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis,” IMF Working Paper 17/115. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1500831011268-EL8TWKFB2KFIFCR4RMZY/image-asset.png Commentary - The Other Trilemma: Governing Global Finance Note: Other potential exposures include derivatives, guarantees extended, and credit commitments. Source: BIS consolidated banking statistics (ultimate risk basis; Table B3). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/7/17/an-open-letter-to-the-honorable-randal-k-quarles monthly 0.5 2017-07-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1500295419637-9D6XU5LEA2DSK4NH9T1D/image-asset.png Commentary - An Open Letter to the Honorable Randal K. Quarles Source: Updated version of Figure 1 from Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft and Hayley Boesky, “Shadow Banking,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Paper No. 458, revised February 2012. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/7/9/china-deleveraging-is-hard-to-do monthly 0.5 2017-07-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1499621578072-LLNBJMUY4JWYU5P599UV/image-asset.png Commentary - China: Deleveraging is Hard to Do Source: BIS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1499621649452-BAP70IFB1PUXLZ9GZ673/image-asset.png Commentary - China: Deleveraging is Hard to Do Note: Each circle represents an economy, with the size of the circle proportional to the dollar value of credit to nonfinancial corporations. Sources: BIS for credit and World Bank for per capita GDP. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1499621736583-25AUU02UI32JP7OUBU5J/image-asset.png Commentary - China: Deleveraging is Hard to Do Source: Bloomberg China government bond yield indexes (GCNY10YR and GCNY1YR). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/6/30/regulating-the-credit-rating-agencies-less-would-be-more monthly 0.5 2017-07-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1498852473263-9OXO99KE53707PMNH6U9/image-asset.png Commentary - Regulating the Credit Rating Agencies? Less Would be More Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Annual Report on Nationally Recognized Securities Rating Organizations (Dec. 2016). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1498852539047-NFBR96A9HQ3FCJPVMZIJ/image-asset.png Commentary - Regulating the Credit Rating Agencies? Less Would be More Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Annual Report on Nationally Recognized Securities Rating Organizations (Dec. 2016). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/6/24/how-to-ensure-the-crisis-provision-of-safe-assets monthly 0.5 2017-06-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1498320568462-46N4IAN458J35LKHA8M1/image-asset.png Commentary - How to Ensure the Crisis Provision of Safe Assets Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.8. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/6/18/the-treasurys-missed-opportunity monthly 0.5 2017-06-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1497819229175-L09PSWEZXZDLZIL3NNJZ/image-asset.png Commentary - The Treasury's Missed Opportunity Source: Bank for International Settlements. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1497819295659-MHOB6KXY7GRFBFAD9TGS/image-asset.png Commentary - The Treasury's Missed Opportunity Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/6/11/fintech-central-banking-and-digital-currency monthly 0.5 2017-06-12 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/5/20/regulatory-discretion-and-asset-prices monthly 0.5 2017-05-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1495306049682-8XCRLXWJA09HBOKK8KX6/image-asset.png Commentary - Regulatory Discretion and Asset Prices Note: The index shown is the nominal CRE price index deflated by the GDP deflator. Sources: BIS and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1495306101164-D9NSKVY5TLX2FTBXEBM7/image-asset.png Commentary - Regulatory Discretion and Asset Prices Note: Through 2007, the series is the price index of land used for commercial purposes in the six largest cities from the Statistical Yearbook. Thereafter, it covers the three largest metropolitan areas. Sources: Japan Statistical Yearbook (2015) and Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1495306160216-017Z7DNWLD72GJ90J9TY/image-asset.png Commentary - Regulatory Discretion and Asset Prices Source: FTSE NAREIT US Index Series (reciprocal of dividend yield). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/5/13/walmart-and-banking-its-time-to-reconsider monthly 0.5 2017-05-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1494690919586-A8LAQE9F0Y49WRNQ5ZBG/image-asset.png Commentary - Walmart and Banking: It's Time to Reconsider Note: Unbanked households have no bank account. Underbanked households have an account but rely on non-bank providers for some financial services. Source: FDIC National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households, 2015 (October 20, 2016) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/5/7/would-italy-be-better-off-without-the-euro monthly 0.5 2017-05-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1494210931990-ETUKXOIYSPVUFH37P19A/image-asset.png Commentary - Would Italy be better off without the euro? Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1494210991233-177UCLUYGYFQBDZ39A3G/image-asset.png Commentary - Would Italy be better off without the euro? Source: Harmonized competitiveness indicators, European Central Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/4/30/ending-too-big-to-fail-resolution-edition monthly 0.5 2017-05-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1493586406763-TKXN44ML9TRE8WIU2AN6/image-asset.png Commentary - Ending Too Big to Fail: Resolution Edition Source: Infoplease. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1493586479634-ZSSQAPEIGI2ORTGTH6EV/image-asset.png Commentary - Ending Too Big to Fail: Resolution Edition Note: Government finance in red; commercial finance in black. Sources: Various online reports (for example, here). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/4/23/understanding-business-dynamism monthly 0.5 2017-04-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1492952761899-DKCLDUL66IWC60RMFKT7/image-asset.png Commentary - Understanding Business Dynamism Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Business Dynamics Statistics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1492952826361-E3HVIHQD9LIQ1JULXK7L/image-asset.png Commentary - Understanding Business Dynamism Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1492952918948-1GEE8UX1YIFW4UZXZU77/image-asset.png Commentary - Understanding Business Dynamism Source: Authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1492952979710-GXLI6KJNFFJ652B7KQ7R/image-asset.png Commentary - Understanding Business Dynamism Source: Guzman and Stern, Figure 3. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/4/17/revisiting-market-liquidity-the-case-of-us-corporate-bonds monthly 0.5 2017-04-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1492435460362-2Z3SW4KZTX5NSLHB8NCF/image-asset.png Commentary - Revisiting Market Liquidity: The Case of U.S. Corporate Bonds Note: Four-quarter moving average. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1492435637554-QC80GHCI902REJTZBX0U/Corporate+Trading+Volume.png Commentary - Revisiting Market Liquidity: The Case of U.S. Corporate Bonds Source: SIFMA based on FINRA TRACE data. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1492435759380-CUI1VSW9PEW5R9URII57/image-asset.png Commentary - Revisiting Market Liquidity: The Case of U.S. Corporate Bonds Source: SIFMA and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/4/10/the-feds-balance-sheet-and-the-stance-of-monetary-policy monthly 0.5 2017-04-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1491824435949-SGU2AAN4KTSPL1X5OFJS/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed's Balance Sheet and the Stance of Monetary Policy Source: Syron Ferris, Kim and Schlusche (2017). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/4/2/the-case-for-a-higher-inflation-target-gets-stronger monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1491174782369-4A1948N0JRJT00FGUP76/image-asset.png Commentary - The case for a higher inflation target gets stronger Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1491174849791-DTFLIQ04TRH1W9JVQWW2/image-asset.png Commentary - The case for a higher inflation target gets stronger Note: Excerpted from Table 3 of Kiley and Roberts, Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference, March 2017. The output gap is the percentage shortfall of actual output from normal (potential) output. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1491174927177-XXDPCIW2IPODFQ8EXCHI/image-asset.png Commentary - The case for a higher inflation target gets stronger Note: The sample of 105 countries includes those with average inflation up to 10 percent and with at least 10 annual observations. Source: World Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/3/26/the-feds-successful-tightening monthly 0.5 2017-03-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1490561326167-FN6J9QFGZKC619CUWB7U/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed's successful tightening Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1490561382445-VFCWX0QLI7317H1JXSOS/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed's successful tightening Sources: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/3/19/regulating-wall-street-the-financial-choice-act-and-systemic-risk monthly 0.5 2017-03-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1489974788925-I72WSCM22H96PBEVC870/image-asset.png Commentary - Regulating Wall Street: The Financial CHOICE Act and Systemic Risk Note: The universe of $18.6 trillion is the total assets of the 115 financial holding companies with assets exceeding $10 billion. The labels in red show the holding company rank number followed by the cumulative share of assets (i.e. the top-ranked 37 firms account for 89 percent of assets). Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/3/12/improving-us-healthcare-and-coverage monthly 0.5 2017-03-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1489352551115-LGPU9LSGX65B6YIDEFDA/image-asset.png Commentary - Improving U.S. Healthcare and Coverage Source: Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max Roser, Financing Healthcare, 2017. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1489352688608-2HNZZ6A1RN8WZ4PXAGAO/image-asset.png Commentary - Improving U.S. Healthcare and Coverage Sources: World Bank and authors' calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/3/5/the-feds-price-stability-achievement monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1488755668818-A8YZ841O2JDMY1V39HOY/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed's Price Stability Achievement Note: This is a model-based estimate of the probability that the year-to-year percentage change of the price index of personal consumption expenditures will fall below zero over the next 12 months. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/2/26/inconvenient-facts monthly 0.5 2017-02-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1488151856437-LQNY3AJRZ57CMT9UN639/image-asset.png Commentary - Inconvenient Facts Source: Conference Board Total Economy Database plus authors’ simulation over next decade. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/2/20/liquidity-transformation-and-open-end-funds monthly 0.5 2017-02-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1487589588913-PXM23K58RYK880AOWQXS/image-asset.png Commentary - Liquidity Transformation and Open-end Funds Note: We define “liquid funds” as those holding U.S. Treasury securities, corporate commercial paper, and domestic U.S. equity funds. “Illiquid funds” are those that invest in loans, bonds (excluding Treasuries) and non-U.S. equities. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States (Tables L. 108, L.110, L.122, and L.124). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1487589659741-P1J9DOEAMHW0E0N54BJ8/image-asset.png Commentary - Liquidity Transformation and Open-end Funds Source: Based on Morris, Shim and Shin (2017). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/2/12/the-future-of-the-euro monthly 0.5 2017-02-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1486933839308-KRJ45UHAYE5ON7PFIJBI/image-asset.png Commentary - The Future of the Euro Source: Harmonized long-term interest rates for convergence assessment purposes, European Central Bank. The final observation, for 10 February 2017, is based on bond yields reported in the Financial Times. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1486933899745-7BX5CM65C8EJBGY9V5OI/image-asset.png Commentary - The Future of the Euro Source: Euro Area Crisis Monitor. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/2/5/an-open-letter-to-congressman-patrick-mchenry monthly 0.5 2017-02-06 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/1/29/when-government-misguides monthly 0.5 2017-01-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1485704623272-ORGIX1P76QW28FVUB917/image-asset.png Commentary - When Government Misguides Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1485704679464-N95MYMLZ1E29JVTUA7RJ/image-asset.png Commentary - When Government Misguides Sources: BEA, BLS and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/1/22/what-bitcoin-has-become monthly 0.5 2017-01-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1485122645449-LDLWTE0ZGNW78FKPMI84/image-asset.png Commentary - What Bitcoin Has Become Source: coinmarketcap.com. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1485122728258-2D5J108RAMQFZ4TNK8GQ/image-asset.png Commentary - What Bitcoin Has Become Source: bitcoinity.org. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1485122795292-P97933QXVBDDSSM3DTF8/image-asset.png Commentary - What Bitcoin Has Become Source: Bloomberg. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/1/8/thoughts-on-proposed-corporate-tax-reform monthly 0.5 2017-01-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1483901729474-RAROKSO63BB0NXJVCZW2/image-asset.png Commentary - Thoughts on Proposed Corporate Tax Reform Note: The average effective tax rate is the ratio of revenues from the corporate tax to aggregate corporate profits in the national accounts. Sources: FRED and (for the top corporate tax rate) Tax Policy Center. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1483901823059-4UK4OD1REBINDLP2EG9P/image-asset.png Commentary - Thoughts on Proposed Corporate Tax Reform Note: Items shaded in yellow are the firm’s revenues; those shaded in blue are its expenditures. For complex examples, including border adjustments that turn the tax base negative, see Auerbach and Holtz-Eakin (2016). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/1/1/central-bank-independence-growing-threats monthly 0.5 2017-01-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1483304079889-TE8KL44BSGK3JI0197D4/image-asset.png Commentary - Central Bank Independence: Growing Threats Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/12/22/chinas-awkward-exchange-rate-regime-an-update monthly 0.5 2016-12-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1482686755103-EIUXCCPM2TC3QH6U2M2H/image-asset.png Commentary - China's Awkward Exchange Rate Regime: an Update Source: State Administration of Foreign Exchange. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1482686888552-ME06QKJ0EVKINV9JGEZJ/image-asset.png Commentary - China's Awkward Exchange Rate Regime: an Update Note: A rise in the nominal exchange rate (the blue line) indicates a depreciation while a rise in the real effective exchange rate (the red line) indicates an appreciation. Sources: BIS, FRB, and Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1482417956038-URLH4QBFPC4YYRS6V9GJ/image-asset.png Commentary - China's Awkward Exchange Rate Regime: an Update Note: The filled red circle denotes China. Each empty square represents a different reporting jurisdiction. Sources: BIS (credit) and World Bank (GNI per capita). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1482418096181-U43NSL7TF5RA6OOKKZ8I/image-asset.png Commentary - China's Awkward Exchange Rate Regime: an Update Sources: BIS, FRB, and WSJ. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/12/14/why-a-gold-standard-is-a-very-bad-idea monthly 0.5 2017-01-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1481748292199-ZIAA4V2B7PHQVD4E4HDJ/image-asset.png Commentary - Why a gold standard is a very bad idea Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1481748363857-ZI8Z776G0UB914EJU1H0/image-asset.png Commentary - Why a gold standard is a very bad idea Source: FRED and Romer (1986). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/12/12/dodd-frank-the-choice-act-and-small-banks monthly 0.5 2017-02-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1481552504516-T6ODCCKTS03D3W4QM0PS/image-asset.png Commentary - Dodd-Frank, the CHOICE Act and Small Banks Source: FDIC Historical Statistics on Banking. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1481552551996-AWXT54A7GLFKH4LQKUSZ/image-asset.png Commentary - Dodd-Frank, the CHOICE Act and Small Banks Note: The vertical red bar marks the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act. Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, as available from FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1481552583589-LLEW5C4XGHDV3MELZOMK/image-asset.png Commentary - Dodd-Frank, the CHOICE Act and Small Banks Notes: Assets in billions of U.S. dollars; leverage is the ratio of the return on equity to the return on assets; funding cost in basis points. Source: FDIC, Quarterly Banking Profile, September 30, 2016. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1481552615322-1MKHFRPQB6QE6H6KZQ2J/image-asset.png Commentary - Dodd-Frank, the CHOICE Act and Small Banks https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/12/5/better-capitalized-banks-lend-more-and-lend-better monthly 0.5 2016-12-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1480945136612-8QUL7E4WMWBJ4EVDAYYG/image-asset.png Commentary - Better capitalized banks lend more and lend better Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.8 and Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1480945347839-9CE0436SKWHJTUIGAH07/image-asset.png Commentary - Better capitalized banks lend more and lend better BHC Bank holding company. Source: Financial Accounts of the United States; Adrian, Tobias, Daniel Covitz, Nellie Liang (2013) Financial Stability Monitoring, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 601. Updates courtesy of the FRBNY. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/11/28/ending-too-big-to-fail monthly 0.5 2016-12-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1480339520382-35GG7TOGEGLZ9D9B7E28/image-asset.png Commentary - Ending Too Big to Fail Source: FRB Minneapolis, The Minneapolis Plan to End Too Big to Fail, Figure 1 and the authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1480339569994-M4684T12G8F0CWBS2JMJ/image-asset.png Commentary - Ending Too Big to Fail Source: FRB Minneapolis, The Minneapolis Plan to End Too Big to Fail and the authors. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/11/21/policy-rules monthly 0.5 2016-12-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1479735100060-CPX7N6ZD337W3JPZONS0/image-asset.png Commentary - Policy rules Source: FRED. Shading is for NBER business-cycle recessions. For instructions on how to construct this pictures, see here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1479735160180-WCYWY6GPW887EI2FCYP0/image-asset.png Commentary - Policy rules Source: FRB Atlanta, Taylor rule utility. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/11/14/monetary-policy-and-financial-stability monthly 0.5 2016-11-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1479128699492-C6OPMGP27AO9EK0SCSVX/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Note: “pp” is percentage points. Source: “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,” IMF Staff Report, August 28, 2015, Table 1. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/10/31/bank-of-japan-at-the-policy-frontier monthly 0.5 2016-10-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1477917075065-4Y4OM5CEZ70RP411GUWF/image-asset.png Commentary - Bank of Japan at the Policy Frontier Note: Vertical red line denotes December 2012 Diet election. Vertical blue line denotes day before announcement of negative interest rate policy. Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1477917202979-QM4TW042ZJ13S29GOJ8U/image-asset.png Commentary - Bank of Japan at the Policy Frontier Note: The vertical blue line denotes September 20, the day before the BoJ policy announcement. Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1477917252009-SFZY0LIB7Y3N5NJAZWJ4/image-asset.png Commentary - Bank of Japan at the Policy Frontier Note: The vertical blue line denotes September 20, the day before the BoJ policy announcement. Source: Bloomberg. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/10/23/policy-and-measurement monthly 0.5 2016-10-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1477258440180-RP9J2F99Y5I3FH9FBUQK/image-asset.png Commentary - Policy and Measurement Note: The dashed lines are based on simple fitted regressions. The slope declines from 0.41 in the first period to 0.09 in the latter period. Sources: FRED and ALFRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1477258520736-711BJJ2E17QT8G0NXAAV/image-asset.png Commentary - Policy and Measurement Source: World Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/10/17/rewriting-the-textbook-covered-interest-parity monthly 0.5 2016-10-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1476710230365-A9S93BM4RQD5MB9PXSLZ/image-asset.png Commentary - Rewriting the textbook: covered interest parity https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1476710270133-RLS4Y344JL8RJTSC1BJG/image-asset.png Commentary - Rewriting the textbook: covered interest parity https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1476710306223-Y5OHLRUP5Y27C675NJXP/image-asset.png Commentary - Rewriting the textbook: covered interest parity https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1476707932481-UHNR20Y5XW5U8ILJJD4A/image-asset.png Commentary - Rewriting the textbook: covered interest parity Source: Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1476708007674-B18RMOIU4VPHF32PIOF2/image-asset.png Commentary - Rewriting the textbook: covered interest parity Note: The maturity is three months. Source: Bloomberg. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/10/9/clinton-versus-trump-on-financial-regulation monthly 0.5 2016-10-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1476034473431-NJKDDB5YCB6V2YWDAZPC/image-asset.png Commentary - Clinton versus Trump on Financial Regulation Source: FRED2. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/10/3/how-risky-are-the-big-us-banks monthly 0.5 2016-10-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1475498319067-X1TQQ07DMG5TGKG2QWEA/image-asset.png Commentary - How risky are the big U.S. banks? * Tier 1 capital ratio is reported in the Sarin-Summers text. 2015 figure is the average for 2010-2015. Note: The pre-crisis period is 2002 to 2007, with the exception of implied volatility data that begin in 2005. Source: Table 1 Panel A in Natasha Sarin and Lawrence H. Summers, “Have big banks gotten safer?,” BPEA Conference Draft, September 15-16, 2016. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1475498376640-1TYJLGA0TRQNEU97S6X8/image-asset.png Commentary - How risky are the big U.S. banks? Source: Stern Volatility Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1475498485855-8XLRU2PTOJ4VSYFW7NIE/image-asset.png Commentary - How risky are the big U.S. banks? Source: Robert Shiller spreadsheet from Irrational Exuberance, 3rd edition, Princeton, 2016. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1475498645930-Y9H7ALCT172QLXYM1SVA/image-asset.png Commentary - How risky are the big U.S. banks? Source: Revised and updated data provided by KVV, based on Figure 3 here. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/9/26/transparent-stress-tests monthly 0.5 2016-09-26 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/9/19/reforming-mutual-funds-a-proposal-to-improve-financial-market-resilience monthly 0.5 2016-09-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1474288667055-S0KBOFEPK06AN74ESAB1/image-asset.png Commentary - Reforming mutual funds: a proposal to improve financial market resilience Sources: Financial Accounts of the United States, Tables L.122 and L.123 and authors’ calculations. “Liquid” funds include money market mutual funds and all holdings of equities, commercial paper, U.S. Treasury securities, and mortgage-backed securities. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/9/12/inflation-and-fiscal-policy monthly 0.5 2016-09-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1473684319734-LX4JPO2BJAPBS7F2KNLL/image-asset.png Commentary - Inflation and Fiscal Policy Note: The final observation for the euro area is 1Q 2016; the final observation for Japan is based on assets through May 2016. Sources: FRED, Japan Cabinet Office authors’ estimates for final observations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1473684444844-IDG55UQPWVP6MOM9EZ9E/image-asset.png Commentary - Inflation and Fiscal Policy Sources: Japan Statistics Bureau, Bank of Japan, and author adjustments in fiscal 2014 for VAT hike. The base year is 2015, with the exception of trimmed mean estimates prior to 2016 that use 2010 as the base year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1473684568170-6MOUSTQBNPNOQVS7PZK2/image-asset.png Commentary - Inflation and Fiscal Policy Note: Blue line marks March 1933. Source: FRED and authors’ conversion to July 1929=100. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1473684739903-02QJ4K5Y3U6JHKD1A1XA/image-asset.png Commentary - Inflation and Fiscal Policy Source: IMF WEO database. Figures for 2015 and 2016 are IMF projections. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/9/5/saving-for-retirement monthly 0.5 2016-09-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1473078514179-RNPDCQWRSNX4ZZZ0OO0W/image-asset.png Commentary - Saving for retirement Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1473078578169-KTGZ86OITI2E5DF3H5AX/image-asset.png Commentary - Saving for retirement Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the website of NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1473078639517-M1ZO44532IWN29J0S4IS/image-asset.png Commentary - Saving for retirement Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the website of NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/8/29/opportunities-in-finance monthly 0.5 2017-01-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1472473189816-SAX7X6PEYH8OD3EVN4VQ/image-asset.png Commentary - Opportunities in Finance Source: BEA. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1472473246653-9I1QQYHVD22V7KXK2OD1/image-asset.png Commentary - Opportunities in Finance Notes: The data is annual through 1944, and quarterly thereafter. The horizontal axis is expanded from 1945 to make the data more visible. Source: Figure 3 in Thomas Philippon, The FinTech Opportunity, NBER Working Paper 22476, August 2016. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/8/22/negative-nominal-interest-rates-again monthly 0.5 2016-08-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1471873947243-75HKHMUA7MS6UQ0FX0OV/image-asset.png Commentary - Negative Nominal Interest Rates (again) Sources: FRED2, Bundesbank, Japan Statistics Bureau, Bloomberg, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1471874015634-WWOFUXILNXV0N9P3H9TX/image-asset.png Commentary - Negative Nominal Interest Rates (again) Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/8/15/the-fomcs-prudent-caution monthly 0.5 2016-08-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1471264411891-X9U76ZJB93YSV36MXCXE/image-asset.png Commentary - The FOMC's Prudent Caution Source: Bloomberg and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1471264478432-NX0MMST8SX0IO0VTZLCG/image-asset.png Commentary - The FOMC's Prudent Caution Sources: Laubach and Williams, Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux (Excel file), TIPS 9-year-ahead 1-year forward rate (TIPS1F09, Excel file), and authors’ conversion of TIPS forward rate to quarterly frequency. The final observation for R* is for 1Q 2016, while the 3Q 2016 observation for the real forward rate covers the period from 2016-07-01 to 2016-08-09. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1471264551452-SHXAIKC5QENDNXQYCKZJ/image-asset.png Commentary - The FOMC's Prudent Caution Source: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (in FOMC calendar), all editions https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1471264629259-8QPO0X2GQ6R2925SNBK2/image-asset.png Commentary - The FOMC's Prudent Caution Note: The adjustment subtracts 0.47%--the average difference over the long term between CPI and PCE inflation—to make the figure comparable with the Fed’s PCE inflation target of 2% (red line). Source: FRED (code: T5YIFR). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/8/8/are-european-stress-tests-stressful-enough monthly 0.5 2016-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1470658792816-8S7URN0T3PSUP45XRFPF/image-asset.png Commentary - Are European Stress Tests Stressful Enough? Note: Own authority scenarios are shaded. Sources: European Banking Authority, Bank of England, and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1470658885740-PSVVBCVJT88BNA7QP78S/image-asset.png Commentary - Are European Stress Tests Stressful Enough? Sources: European Banking Association, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1470658988205-G7HN47JZHIFDXF54HRE7/image-asset.png Commentary - Are European Stress Tests Stressful Enough? Sources: European Banking Association, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1470659106153-8ZDLVVQHBRR856Y01P9L/image-asset.png Commentary - Are European Stress Tests Stressful Enough? Sources: NYU Stern School V-Lab, FDIC, EBA and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/7/31/the-world-of-etfs monthly 0.5 2016-08-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1470007410002-GLTORZN5XS99O4MRS18H/image-asset.png Commentary - The World of ETFs Source: Financial Accounts of the United States 1Q 2016, table L.123, Federal Reserve. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1470007475199-9NX65WTTG29MC84DP98A/image-asset.png Commentary - The World of ETFs Source: Financial Accounts of the United States 1Q 2016, table L.122, Federal Reserve. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/7/25/the-lender-of-last-resort-and-the-lehman-bankruptcy monthly 0.5 2017-10-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1469448689566-PBFD4RNWQ4ROL6GGN1JM/image-asset.png Commentary - The Lender of Last Resort and the Lehman Bankruptcy Source: NYU Stern School V-Lab. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/7/18/the-china-debate monthly 0.5 2016-07-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1468844348879-CWCEVKFJ1D33YEERAWQL/image-asset.png Commentary - The China Debate Source: Bank for International Settlements. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1468864526497-V23VBHM0YG9W3O917Q01/Untitled.png Commentary - The China Debate Notes: The size of each circle represents credit measured in U.S. dollars. China is shown in red. The fitted line is shown in blue. Sources: Bank for International Settlements and World Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/7/11/brexit-stress-test monthly 0.5 2016-07-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1468241043064-AS6CGBIFTPNYFD3E726G/image-asset.png Commentary - Brexit Stress Test Sources: Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1468242331799-IBE7701RURYYBAII0UQY/image-asset.png Commentary - Brexit Stress Test Source: BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics Table B4. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/7/4/brexit-and-systemic-risk monthly 0.5 2016-07-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1467632166747-7HXKU5LHDZYU71A0DHZE/image-asset.png Commentary - Brexit and Systemic Risk Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1467632240547-UBWXNS7DW4YWR68DGM1A/image-asset.png Commentary - Brexit and Systemic Risk Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1467632295810-XJ8IT7L3QZ1S8RBCJQDV/image-asset.png Commentary - Brexit and Systemic Risk Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. Notes: SRISK (%) is the share of aggregate positive European SRISK accounted for by each intermediary. SRISK ($B) shows the level of SRISK in billions of dollars. “Correlation” is the dynamic conditional correlation between the equity return on a stock and the return on the MSCI World Index. “Volatility” is the estimated annualized volatility of each intermediary’s equity. “Leverage” is the intermediary’s leverage (the ratio of the sum of fixed liabilities and equity market valuation divided by equity market valuation). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1467632373493-RLK6YSAREAQBZ98KQUN3/image-asset.png Commentary - Brexit and Systemic Risk Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. Note: SRISK is as of July 1, 2016. Δ(EQUITY) is positive when market equity value falls, while Δ(DEBT) and Δ(RISK) are positive when debt, correlation and volatility rise. Δ(DEBT) is an accounting measure, while Δ(EQUITY) andΔ(RISK) reflect developments in equity prices. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/6/20/bank-capital-and-monetary-policy monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1466425559312-83LUE5U4YZSUQIL6XYOP/image-asset.png Commentary - Bank Capital and Monetary Policy Source: Leonardo Gambacorta and Hyun Song Shin, “Why bank capital matters for monetary policy,” BIS Working Papers No 558, April 2016, Figure 1; and authors’ calculations. Note that we plot the inverse of each bank’s average ratio of assets to equity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1466425615341-9VVV7E2OYY1ZF88YL11J/image-asset.png Commentary - Bank Capital and Monetary Policy Source: Reproduction of Figure 1 from Caballero, Hoshi, and Kashyap, “Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan,” American Economic Review, 2008, 98:5, 1943-1977. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/6/10/making-banking-safe monthly 0.5 2016-06-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1465604757258-9VEAAOYOVLI3NIAAR1ZD/image-asset.png Commentary - Making Banking Safe https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/6/6/credit-ratings-and-conflicts-of-interest monthly 0.5 2016-06-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1465215450388-0VW8OF1DV3AVSRTIPQUP/image-asset.png Commentary - Credit ratings and conflicts of interest Source: Authors’ calculations based on Table 2 in Cornaggia, Cornaggia and Hund, “Credit ratings across asset classes: A long-term perspective.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1465215698588-BNDO1O0UN74BHUCVLS0L/image-asset.png Commentary - Credit ratings and conflicts of interest Source: Reproduction of Figure 4 from Baghai and Becker, “Non-rating revenue and conflicts of interest.” https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/5/30/spillovers-spillbacks-and-policy-coordination monthly 0.5 2016-05-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1464612429912-HR6M4D0PMN5LQ2OH43H3/image-asset.png Commentary - Spillovers, spillbacks and policy coordination Source: Cecchetti, Mancini-Griffoli and Narita, forthcoming. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1464612555061-TXNAS8Z74XTFYT0Y1BB8/image-asset.png Commentary - Spillovers, spillbacks and policy coordination Source: Cecchetti, Mancini-Griffoli and Narita, forthcoming. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/5/23/the-even-cloudier-future-of-peer-to-peer-lending monthly 0.5 2016-05-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1464006915729-PXW3IDOBKXLECKYZI2RM/image-asset.png Commentary - The even cloudier future of peer-to-peer lending Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/5/16/donald-trump-treasury-debt-and-the-dollar monthly 0.5 2016-05-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1463399406851-X2RFF15ZJY804J6Z76HB/image-asset.png Commentary - Donald Trump, Treasury Debt and the Dollar Sources: U.S. Treasury Bulletin (various issues), U.S. Treasury International Capital System, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve H.8. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1463399500713-GEIRFN1A1C94O7B64P76/image-asset.png Commentary - Donald Trump, Treasury Debt and the Dollar Source: ECB. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/5/9/gses-reforms-at-the-margin monthly 0.5 2016-05-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1462795100652-NSSTOA4391KO3YT814NU/image-asset.png Commentary - GSEs: Reforms at the Margin Source: Authors' calculations based on Federal Reserve Financial Accounts of the United States, Table L.218. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/5/2/leverage-and-risk monthly 0.5 2016-05-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1462191241816-0X7ZVRUH1EO2ZR158UHW/image-asset.png Commentary - Leverage and Risk Sources: FDIC, Global Capital Index; 10-Q and 10-K filings; and authors’ calculations. Note that there are several observations over time for each of the eight U.S. G-SIBs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1462191292074-UWE0M3XFZ776B2EMHI5S/image-asset.png Commentary - Leverage and Risk Sources: FDIC, Global Capital Index; 10-Q and 10-K filings; and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/4/25/liquidity-runs monthly 0.5 2016-04-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1461586963613-OAP8X5X9NQNP87RBLFQZ/image-asset.png Commentary - Liquidity Runs Source: SEC Chairman Cox Letter to Basel Committee, March 20, 2008. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1461587152820-DRP6XCEKKBZWC2V5K0JL/image-asset.png Commentary - Liquidity Runs Source: 2007 Annual Report of Bear Stearns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1461587196431-JJVE7S0ATKXBV5YA117R/image-asset.png Commentary - Liquidity Runs Source: See Figure 3 in Dagher et. al. Benefits and Costs of Bank Capital, IMF Staff Discussion Note, March 2016. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/4/18/the-map-is-the-message-regional-feds-versus-euro-area-ncbs monthly 0.5 2016-04-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1460981480214-LDK5EFOVC4807ZM5K2QF/image-asset.png Commentary - The Map is the Message: Regional Feds versus Euro-area NCBs Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1460981510218-3KRVD5DU5PX8RGDYLTD8/image-asset.png Commentary - The Map is the Message: Regional Feds versus Euro-area NCBs Source: European Central Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/4/11/the-feds-approach-to-risk-management monthly 0.5 2016-04-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1460378244443-EEYTYZG5MCGNPJ2B7DNF/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed's Approach to Risk Management Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1460378420115-SOM1J1TVZNAKJGPFYY0V/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed's Approach to Risk Management Source: FRED and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/4/4/too-big-to-fail-metlife-v-fsoc monthly 0.5 2016-04-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1459772645730-20SS9Q6G9LUVV396BCAT/image-asset.png Commentary - Too Big to Fail: MetLife v. FSOC Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. For a definition of SRISK, see here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1459772757066-ERNLWYFO1YOI740GS4FP/image-asset.png Commentary - Too Big to Fail: MetLife v. FSOC Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. For a definition of SRISK, see here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1459772929760-R819GHSLJEXDEF6IEP36/image-asset.png Commentary - Too Big to Fail: MetLife v. FSOC Source: NYU Stern Volatility Lab. For a definition of SRISK, see here. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/3/28/making-markets-safe-the-role-of-central-clearing monthly 0.5 2016-03-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1459167947655-OLHW9BI4PB2FDTB65ES7/image-asset.png Commentary - Making Markets Safe: The Role of Central Clearing Source: BIS Semiannual derivatives statistics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1459168032250-Y4D7Y6W0PO6RRVUIR9I0/image-asset.png Commentary - Making Markets Safe: The Role of Central Clearing https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/3/21/r7a9m95gxwkme2fpypmawgqnu0m5gl monthly 0.5 2016-03-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1458563365054-940AIZBSKQY0P2B6KWDY/image-asset.png Commentary - Central Banks and Systematic Risks Source: CBOE. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1458563497074-2MBADZ1F0JDQYSH3EGWW/image-asset.png Commentary - Central Banks and Systematic Risks Note: Returns calculated based on January data for each year. Red lines show a one-standard deviation bandwidth around the mean (black line). Source: Authors' calculations based on Shiller data for Irrational Exuberance 3e (2015) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/3/14/the-regulator monthly 0.5 2016-03-14 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/3/7/connect-the-dots-1 monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/2/28/how-low-can-they-go monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1456845584654-WGMX6HN3417CKCV4MOZZ/Sweden+Rates.png Commentary - How Low Can They Go? Source: Sveriges Riksbank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1456697215968-8MD85OVXE4T3X1KOP37O/image-asset.png Commentary - How Low Can They Go? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1456696862570-C063N1JPXQJ2HBSADR0K/image-asset.png Commentary - How Low Can They Go? Source: “Key Points of Today's Policy Decisions,” Bank of Japan, January 29, 2016. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/2/21/chinas-awkward-exchange-rate-regime monthly 0.5 2016-02-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1456072995421-SUKTBBPCAV86JHK0CSWI/image-asset.png Commentary - China's Awkward Exchange Rate Regime Note: The filled red circle denotes China. Each empty square represents a different reporting jurisdiction. Sources: BIS (credit) and World Bank (GNI per capita). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1456071361918-6PZT2BG60GE2HRPNN4P5/image-asset.png Commentary - China's Awkward Exchange Rate Regime Sources: BIS, FRB, and WSJ. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/2/14/global-finance-requires-more-global-cooperation monthly 0.5 2016-02-19 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/2/7/the-scandal-is-whats-legal-2 monthly 0.5 2016-02-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1454860487336-QD3NFQJJPSRFW868J8WU/image-asset.png Commentary - The Scandal is What's Legal Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/2/1/interview-with-narayana-kocherlakota monthly 0.5 2016-02-01 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/1/25/can-margin-requirements-improve-financial-resilience monthly 0.5 2016-01-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1453743811191-22DYZZ9310TXUT2DD81O/image-asset.png Commentary - Can Margin Requirements Improve Financial Resilience? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1453743839581-J1DN2MMI7ETYZZE67AGI/image-asset.png Commentary - Can Margin Requirements Improve Financial Resilience? Source: Committee on the Global Financial System. The role of margin requirements and haircuts in procyclicality. CGSF Report No 36, March 2010. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/1/16/interview-with-sir-charles-bean monthly 0.5 2016-01-18 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/1/11/making-finance-work-for-households monthly 0.5 2016-01-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1452520254735-UBF189FUJJSACJ3XLEAZ/image-asset.png Commentary - Making Finance Work For Households Source: John Y. Campbell, American Economic Association Richard T. Ely lecture, January 3, 2016. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2016/1/4/falling-interest-rates-and-government-investment monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1451915448794-S1BSKF0HTE0AZMQXVSPZ/image-asset.png Commentary - Falling Interest Rates and Government Investment Source: Gurkaynak, Sack, Wright (2006, with updates). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1451915603193-BI6DAWSKRLH0PTXV6F6P/image-asset.png Commentary - Falling Interest Rates and Government Investment Source: FRED. Note: Net domestic product is GDP less depreciation. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/12/28/how-the-fed-tightened monthly 0.5 2015-12-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1451308127238-7BFI2TMJ880NPFQHOU93/image-asset.png Commentary - How the Fed tightened Source: FRBNY. Note: The final row shows the first-half December average in each column. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1451308264336-9NEG7DG0IDO4S2R8DIOM/image-asset.png Commentary - How the Fed tightened Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/12/21/interview-with-charles-plosser monthly 0.5 2015-12-21 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/12/14/the-fed-from-forward-guidance-to-data-dependence monthly 0.5 2015-12-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1450099496110-EJ9O8AWO017LJ6ZRAD75/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed: From forward guidance to data dependence Source: FRED (DFEDTAR). Note: When the FOMC shifted from a target rate level to a range in 2008, this series was discontinued. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1450099570245-YR5QT3H74AXW6UK8S1UR/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed: From forward guidance to data dependence Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1450099620198-QZL8HL7B4Q3R7Z5CISST/image-asset.png Commentary - The Fed: From forward guidance to data dependence Source: FRED2 (VIXCLS). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/12/7/unconventional-monetary-policy-through-the-feds-rear-view-mirror monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1449494688175-KNRSAZPECHH9HJ71AWCX/image-asset.png Commentary - Unconventional monetary policy through the Fed's rear-view mirror Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and authors' dates. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/11/30/bank-resilience-yet-another-missed-opportunity monthly 0.5 2015-12-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1448891392036-63QF68WNY4LP1BZXWKCI/image-asset.jpeg Commentary - Bank resilience: yet another missed opportunity Source: These computations are based on a presentation by Luc Laeven that used the IMF Systemic Banking Crises Database. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/11/20/interview-with-john-taylor monthly 0.5 2015-12-19 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/11/9/learning-from-japan-its-hard-to-end-a-deflation monthly 0.5 2015-11-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1447075423412-MKW9HG4U92ULUFU72W2X/image-asset.png Commentary - Learning from Japan: It's Hard to End a Deflation Source: Bank of Japan, Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, October 2015. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1447075498020-R52OKVUNRMS7SEXBH3WZ/image-asset.png Commentary - Learning from Japan: It's Hard to End a Deflation Source: Bank of Japan Tankan (Quarterly Survey of Enterprises). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/11/2/is-international-diversification-dead monthly 0.5 2015-11-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1446471182135-VD30ZM5YTFARGZPUOWFR/image-asset.png Commentary - Is International Diversification Dead? Sources: 1980-2013, 2014 MSCI EAFE, 2014 S&P500, and authors’ calculations. Note: Each dot represents the average return and the standard deviation of returns for a portfolio that holds x percent of the S&P500 and (100-x) percent of the MSCI EAFE. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1446471251296-K4DRECG6GF59C91LFM5H/image-asset.png Commentary - Is International Diversification Dead? Source: Bloomberg. Note: The data on price changes used in this chart do not include equity payouts, so they differ from index returns, but still provide a useful proxy. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/10/26/financial-transactions-taxes-ftt monthly 0.5 2015-10-26 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/10/19/market-liquidity-and-financial-stability monthly 0.5 2015-10-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1445257608880-YL41Z6MXYA413A7QKRGJ/image-asset.png Commentary - Market liquidity and financial stability Source: Federal Reserve Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1). See also Adrian, et al. Redemption Risk of Bond Mutual Funds and Dealer Positioning (Liberty Street Economics blog). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/10/12/making-driving-safe monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/10/5/banks-and-interest-rates-be-careful-what-you-wish-for monthly 0.5 2015-10-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1444055399670-AWN5C4G0U57WIOC3KRKC/image-asset.png Commentary - Banks and interest rates: be careful what you wish for Source: FRED; based on data collected by Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1444055491252-FTC1FJZNJ1RWCG8KPRJS/image-asset.png Commentary - Banks and interest rates: be careful what you wish for Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/9/28/deja-vu-in-emerging-markets monthly 0.5 2015-09-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1443443092058-5K673J9Q17C7HNFKEJOG/image-asset.png Commentary - Déjà vu in emerging markets Averages are GDP weighted. Countries included are Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey. * Data show the average for the period 2011 to 2014. Sources: IMF, World Bank and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1443443161440-XYGPENR0X2CS6Y7DL2MQ/image-asset.png Commentary - Déjà vu in emerging markets Note: The weighted average is based on the average GDP-weight from 2000 to 2014 for the list of countries in the preceding table, excluding China. Sources: IMF, BIS and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/9/21/virtual-frenzies-bitcoin-and-the-block-chain monthly 0.5 2017-01-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1442840533935-WNBR5T5T3R8FWA5X5G5I/image-asset.png Commentary - Virtual Frenzies: Bitcoin and the Blockchain Source: http://www.coindesk.com/price/ https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1442840582254-JY9AHXSAA3FOBUQ8GVMK/image-asset.png Commentary - Virtual Frenzies: Bitcoin and the Blockchain Source: BIS Statistics on Payment, Clearing and Settlement in the CPMI Countries. Japan data from 2012 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/9/14/its-a-small-world-after-all monthly 0.5 2015-09-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1442233112679-BJKLO88GXN26KCSJXB0Y/image-asset.png Commentary - It's a small world (after all) Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook; and BIS. (We thank Előd Takáts of the BIS for providing the data for this chart.) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/9/6/the-fomc-is-coming monthly 0.5 2015-09-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1441539415878-JVXVPATWDUHK2Y1NT1DN/image-asset.png Commentary - The FOMC is coming Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1441539555073-DCH1PXSOPZWEPZY6QLD2/image-asset.png Commentary - The FOMC is coming Source: Authors' calculations based on quarterly observations of annual inflation from FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1441539663456-CB8CHMCPL2ZTE7FTMB80/image-asset.png Commentary - The FOMC is coming Source: Authors' calculations based on quarterly observations of annual inflation from FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/8/30/is-chinas-devaluation-a-game-changer monthly 0.5 2015-08-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1440941934222-Q19GPGWJRIZL84M3DILK/image-asset.png Commentary - Is China's devaluation a game changer? Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics and Bloomberg survey. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1440942091229-PYDTL484BYE2YN7MX7NF/image-asset.png Commentary - Is China's devaluation a game changer? Sources: FRED, BIS, and authors's projection. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1440942384603-UCIG6YMF69TRCK9K8GTK/image-asset.png Commentary - Is China's devaluation a game changer? Source: Bloomberg indexes CCDRC (CNY) and CGDRC (CNH). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/8/23/open-letter-to-senator-rand-paul monthly 0.5 2015-08-23 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/8/17/bond-market-liquidity-should-we-be-worried monthly 0.5 2015-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1439813719873-HELB85SCZ2HLB3NTB9AG/image-asset.png Commentary - Bond market liquidity: should we be worried? Source: Sifma. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1439813795797-644D3FIX5DZY5L6N0H5H/image-asset.png Commentary - Bond market liquidity: should we be worried? Source: Exhibit 4 in BlackRock Viewpoint, “Addressing Market Liquidity,” 10 July 2015. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/8/6/how-the-fed-will-tighten monthly 0.5 2015-08-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1438883568967-UXDENQ3D4Z70XYCROK0N/image-asset.png Commentary - How the Fed will tighten Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1438883618726-82RFD3CYCE2OP2X8X63U/image-asset.png Commentary - How the Fed will tighten Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1438883702783-BNAZTKFLSNDPAB0CQ1GR/image-asset.png Commentary - How the Fed will tighten Source: Authors. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/8/3/what-should-greece-do monthly 0.5 2015-08-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1438604826591-Q6Y2CLZJNJ2EM3MY0HWH/image-asset.png Commentary - What should Greece do? Source: World Bank and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1438604872236-Q183ZCWB274O1XLLXJHN/image-asset.png Commentary - What should Greece do? Source: European Commission (Excel file) and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1438604928344-VAK06BPTLHY8CQZIX003/image-asset.png Commentary - What should Greece do? Sources: BIS, IMF and authors' calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/7/27/are-we-overestimating-inflation-again monthly 0.5 2015-07-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1437999233436-X6J0LK2RKADZV3RZZ7E7/image-asset.png Commentary - Are we overestimating inflation (again?) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. (For this chart in FRED, along with a description of the data, click here.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1437999306587-N3WBSF0OJR1SCX6JD37P/image-asset.png Commentary - Are we overestimating inflation (again?) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. (For this chart in FRED, along with a description of the data, click here.) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/7/20/aiib-the-first-international-financial-institution-of-the-21st-century monthly 0.5 2015-07-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1437394784518-0YH4V3ZC9JSWSUMYNLNX/image-asset.png Commentary - AIIB: The first international financial institution of the 21st century Note: GDP is measured as current international U.S. dollars (adjusted for purchasing power parity). Data for 2014 show the gap between 2014 quota shares and 2013 GDP shares. Sources: IMF and World Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/7/15/interview-with-axel-weber monthly 0.5 2015-07-16 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/7/13/after-greece-saving-emu monthly 0.5 2015-07-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1436790874538-JQCEJ9JQC8VCXR3DJ4IZ/image-asset.png Commentary - After Greece: Saving EMU Source: World Bank Deposit Insurance Database. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/7/6/chinas-stock-market-boom-and-bust monthly 0.5 2015-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1436178844481-BN22DM77VGML042XGFMT/Equity+Markets+Ranked+by+Cap+2015-07-06.png Commentary - China's stock market boom and bust Source: World Federation of Exchanges and (for LSE) London Stock Exchange. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1436178933374-1OK1JIK7B4FUO1796W4W/image-asset.png Commentary - China's stock market boom and bust Source: World Federation of Exchanges through May 2015 and authors’ estimates for latest observation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1436179121244-TZIHQT14A7QOEWNJTS9T/image-asset.png Commentary - China's stock market boom and bust Sources: Bloomberg and Shanghai Stock Exchange monthly reports. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1436179363935-UKNF5M0LRFPPBMPMCS7M/image-asset.png Commentary - China's stock market boom and bust Sources: Brokers' loans from Federal Reserve Banking and Monetary Statistics 1914-41, Figure 139, page 494; NYSE market value from Barrie A. Wigmore, The Crash and its Aftermath: A History of Securities Markets in the United States, 1929-1933, 1985, Table A.22. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/7/2/interview-with-gill-marcus monthly 0.5 2015-07-02 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/6/27/poking-bigger-holes-in-chinas-great-financial-wall monthly 0.5 2015-06-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1435407284422-Y53ZJ2NSNRCVDHOI99MT/China+Depost+Lending+Rates.png Commentary - Poking Bigger Holes in China's Great Financial Wall Source: IMF IFS through 2014 and author updates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1435403979303-UXVDXSYZJN5A8J4IGFKR/image-asset.png Commentary - Poking Bigger Holes in China's Great Financial Wall Source: Bloomberg indexes CCDRC (CNY) and CGDRC (CNH). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/6/22/monetary-policy-and-financial-inclusion monthly 0.5 2015-06-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1434975556944-PCJQZ12H3Z9W9CP7AKX3/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary policy and financial inclusion https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1434975640620-KAUWRSXRDDH6AYRAGZ2Y/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary policy and financial inclusion Source: Graph 7 in Aaron Mehrotra and James Yetman, “Financial inclusion and optimal monetary policy,” BIS Working Paper No. 476, December 2014. Data are for 139 countries. The Findex data are from 2011, and the ratio of the standard deviations is computed using information from 2000 to 2012. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/6/18/interview-with-john-lipsky-3 monthly 0.5 2015-06-18 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/6/15/dodd-frank-five-years-after monthly 0.5 2015-06-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1434371129556-Q8I81B1B7DXH9U5GJJUV/image-asset.png Commentary - Dodd-Frank: Five Years After https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/6/3/why-the-mortgage-interest-tax-deduction-should-disappear-but-wont monthly 0.5 2015-06-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1433342319175-Y8BDVMQDQDTHTY049BQN/image-asset.png Commentary - Why the mortgage interest tax deduction should disappear, but won't Source: Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Consumer Finance 2013, and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1433342411849-D7OB8HUOS3KKSZR782DJ/image-asset.png Commentary - Why the mortgage interest tax deduction should disappear, but won't Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds combined with U.S. Treasury Internal Revenue Service tax rates, and authors' calculations. This measure includes vacant land, so it overstates the impact of the tax deduction. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/5/29/banking-the-masses monthly 0.5 2015-06-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1432924624955-EMH74KKWVMV35E5JVJJP/Untitled.png Commentary - Banking the Masses Source: World Bank Findex 2014. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1432924768693-1R7LTXR37AZQHGRB9ZO6/image-asset.png Commentary - Banking the Masses Source: World Bank. Access is measured as the share of adults with a banking or mobile phone payment account, or both. The regional data are for developing economies only. All high-income countries are grouped together, regardless of geography. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/5/26/do-central-banks-need-capital monthly 0.5 2015-05-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1432642538546-11I3VPBP6IH445V6OG6U/image-asset.png Commentary - Do central banks need capital? Source: Reproduced from slides presented at NYU Stern Volatility Institute 2015 Annual Conference, April 21, 2015; updates based on Jens Christensen, Jose A. Lopez and Glenn Rudebusch, “A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income,” forthcoming, Journal of Monetary Economics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1432642592453-EF8U8JZJUMISCE9SC4YX/image-asset.png Commentary - Do central banks need capital? Sources: Federal Reserve H.3 and H.8; FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/5/18/regulatory-quakes-and-tremors monthly 0.5 2015-05-18 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/5/11/an-open-letter-to-bill-mcnabb-ceo-of-vanguard-group monthly 0.5 2015-05-11 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/5/7/interview-with-sheila-bair monthly 0.5 2015-05-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/5/6/interview-with-choong-soo-kim monthly 0.5 2015-05-06 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/5/4/not-so-fast monthly 0.5 2015-05-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1430743576985-STQS8E7US3SZSEOMMDJ7/image-asset.png Commentary - Not so fast Note: Ranked by size in 2014 Q4 on an IFRS basis. Source: FDIC Global Capital Index. We are grateful for the extraordinary work of FDIC Vice Chairman Thomas Hoenig in gathering and publishing this data on a semi-annual basis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1430743647343-ATGX1EWALHQ6AE4DGJ97/image-asset.png Commentary - Not so fast Source: Updated version of Figure 1 from Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft and Hayley Boesky, “Shadow Banking,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Paper No. 458, revised February 2012. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/4/27/residential-real-estate-in-china-the-delicate-balance-of-supply-and-demand monthly 0.5 2015-04-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1430136949086-8ZEJIQ9VHH7VWNC6PP7P/image-asset.png Commentary - Residential real estate in China: the delicate balance of supply and demand Source: Y. Deng, J. Gyourko, and J. Wu, "China's Housing Markets: What We Know and What We Need to Know," mimeo, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2015. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1430137053064-EJ5Y4N4VPOKLFQET8THD/image-asset.png Commentary - Residential real estate in China: the delicate balance of supply and demand Source: World Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/4/23/interview-with-duvvuri-subbarao monthly 0.5 2015-04-23 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/4/20/the-euro-areas-debt-hangover monthly 0.5 2015-04-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1429535471205-UHUC2TMJCLCJKMZ0BOM2/image-asset.png Commentary - The euro area's debt hangover Source: Conference Board, Total Economy Database. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1429535735720-8KQARU5KT5HGNRVOIOHH/image-asset.png Commentary - The euro area's debt hangover Source: Data are for 2014 from Eurostat, the ECB and author's calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1429535847415-KX0GRC39LXK8I21B2AH3/image-asset.png Commentary - The euro area's debt hangover Source: Data are for 2014 from Eurostat, the ECB and author's calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/4/16/interview-with-adair-turner monthly 0.5 2015-04-16 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/4/13/the-mythic-quest-for-early-warnings monthly 0.5 2015-04-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1428928416605-7BCXOVKREICNNSAFTGWQ/image-asset.png Commentary - The mythic quest for early warnings Source: FRED2 and ECB. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1428928483183-Q9J9C5JQI2KR8KWSTDM0/image-asset.png Commentary - The mythic quest for early warnings Source: NYU Stern School V-Lab Systemic Risk Analysis Homepage . https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/4/6/zero-matters monthly 0.5 2015-04-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1428324478838-9K1DG5W3XLTUV8PYNNAG/image-asset.png Commentary - Zero matters Source: reproduced from Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn, “Downward Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve,” FRB San Francisco Working Papers, January 2014. For an updated distribution, see the FRB San Francisco wage rigidity meter. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1428324622869-P96X82MEJN6HTBP1JW2P/image-asset.png Commentary - Zero matters Sources: Nominal Wage Rigidity Data Release (FRBSF) and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1428324736177-21PJUYSGD02G2WEM94Z0/image-asset.png Commentary - Zero matters Sources: Japan Basic Wage Structure Survey and Historical Statistics of Japan Table 19-49. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/4/1/interview-with-otmar-issing monthly 0.5 2015-04-02 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/30/is-2-still-the-solution monthly 0.5 2015-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1427718292838-C3SAE15359PGNR9M67LN/image-asset.png Commentary - Is 2% still the solution? Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: Civilian unemployment rate (UNRATE) less the natural rate of unemployment (NROU) from FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/25/interview-with-masaaki-shirakawa monthly 0.5 2015-03-25 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/23/a-simple-guide-to-secular-stagnation monthly 0.5 2020-02-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1427114540329-FJ4TKSMEOINL6EAHQQ2N/image-asset.png Commentary - A Simple Guide to "Secular Stagnation" Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1427114674897-ZSHBE0CNHQWHTRPN38P2/image-asset.png Commentary - A Simple Guide to "Secular Stagnation" Source: ALFRED, CBO projections of potential GDP, and authors' calculations. All series are set equal at the cyclical peak in the third quarter of 2007. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1427114786443-CAB96KGLRN87A2GN3NLP/image-asset.png Commentary - A Simple Guide to "Secular Stagnation" https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/18/interview-with-guillermo-ortiz monthly 0.5 2015-03-19 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/16/the-cloudy-future-of-peer-to-peer-lending monthly 0.5 2015-03-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1426509558218-7KJUPYYM7ZHD6MFVS8M1/image-asset.png Commentary - The cloudy future of peer-to-peer lending Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/9/finance-is-great-but-it-can-be-a-real-drag-too monthly 0.5 2015-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1425902025723-J39HGT6UTLALQ38R0SMX/Finance+Drag+Figure+1.png Commentary - Finance is great, but it can be a real drag, too Source: Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi, “Reassessing the impact of finance on growth,’ BIS Working Paper No. 381, July 2012. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1425902180625-XG2UYLGX2RQ1K1LL1LSJ/image-asset.png Commentary - Finance is great, but it can be a real drag, too Source: Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi, “Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth?” BIS Working Paper No. 490, February 2015. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/4/interview-with-paul-mw-tucker monthly 0.5 2015-03-05 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/3/2/living-with-uncertainty-what-central-banks-do-when-they-dont-know-the-natural-rate monthly 0.5 2015-03-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1425304428320-16TVGFVNXDP3EBFZJN46/dasfd.png Commentary - Living with uncertainty: What central banks do when they don't know the natural rate Reproduced from Hamilton, et al, “The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future,” U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, February 2015. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/2/23/forecasting-trend-growth-living-with-uncertainty monthly 0.5 2015-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1424698577312-HAN35QVK202X198YG5MJ/image-asset.png Commentary - Forecasting Trend Growth: Living with Uncertainty Source: CBO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED) and authors' calculations (see technical note.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1424698658530-D8LZDTU8X6UB4R8FGVK0/image-asset.png Commentary - Forecasting Trend Growth: Living with Uncertainty Source: CBO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED) and authors' calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/2/15/the-congressional-reserve-board-a-really-bad-idea monthly 0.5 2015-02-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1423997959173-NJYEMN623ZARPPCA2Y22/image-asset.png Commentary - The Congressional Reserve Board: A Really Bad Idea Source: Reproduced from Alesina and Summers, “Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 1993. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/2/11/interview-with-timothy-geithner monthly 0.5 2015-02-12 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/2/9/negative-nominal-interest-rates-back-to-the-future monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1423488272331-V4MV52IHGCN0WJGGB34U/image-asset.png Commentary - Negative nominal interest rates: back to the future? Source: Cecchetti and Schoenholtz, Money, Banking and Financial Markets 4e, and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/2/5/interview-jeremy-stein monthly 0.5 2015-02-05 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/2/2/a-big-mac-update monthly 0.5 2015-02-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1422883734305-LR1O81TKN3KT6JYQ5L6M/image-asset.png Commentary - A Big Mac Update Source: The Economist and authors' calculations. Computed using mid-year data, except for January 2015. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/1/26/ecb-paddles-both-ways-in-the-rubicon monthly 0.5 2015-01-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1422278793889-INN4D1HTQXZ3DM0FHAWE/image-asset.png Commentary - ECB Paddles Both Ways in the Rubicon F forecast. Source: ECB and authors' estimates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1422278895448-ECDBO7T5XVN37POXIDFG/image-asset.png Commentary - ECB Paddles Both Ways in the Rubicon Source: Thomson Reuters https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/1/22/interview-donald-kohn monthly 0.5 2015-01-22 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/1/18/a-swiss-lesson-in-time-consistency monthly 0.5 2015-01-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1421618360286-XO01B2A76TMJ8TRPGFEV/image-asset.png Commentary - A Swiss Lesson in Time (Consistency) Source: Swiss National Bank. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/1/15/interview-jean-claude-trichet-former-president-european-central-bank monthly 0.5 2015-01-17 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/1/12/conflicts-of-interest-in-finance monthly 0.5 2015-01-12 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/1/5/the-ecbs-not-so-sweet-16th monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1420465378232-B7PH73NWACGE3IJB059X/image-asset.png Commentary - The ECB's Not-So-Sweet 16th https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1420465883089-MYFBJVHG5K8GC2ATMGSW/image-asset.png Commentary - The ECB's Not-So-Sweet 16th Sources: Eurostat and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1420465969225-9B3BSU8P4RAE00BCRN30/image-asset.png Commentary - The ECB's Not-So-Sweet 16th Sources: OECD and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/12/28/financial-innovation-and-risk-management monthly 0.5 2014-12-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1419765805206-UIWY3LNZRV2IC2EKJ8HY/image-asset.png Commentary - Financial Innovation and Risk Management Source: Survey of Consumer Finance (2013) and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1419765921148-30TCNOSX5MHH3YU35SRE/image-asset.png Commentary - Financial Innovation and Risk Management Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, FRED, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/12/19/yogi-berra-and-the-dollar monthly 0.5 2014-12-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1419002774944-M6H4GHMGTMV2AAEB74PQ/image-asset.png Commentary - Yogi Berra and the Dollar Note: The blue line is a regression fit. Source: FRED and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1419002851543-X152SJ8YL9J43O1C6WVM/image-asset.png Commentary - Yogi Berra and the Dollar Source: FRB and authors' calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/12/15/higher-capital-requirements-didnt-slow-the-economy monthly 0.5 2014-12-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1418651876965-39IWPRFELJJNCU8XDQLF/image-asset.png Commentary - Higher capital requirements didn't slow the economy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1418650408074-30G6GHILA3YFOETS0BHC/image-asset.png Commentary - Higher capital requirements didn't slow the economy Source: BIS. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/12/8/should-we-really-worry-about-currency-wars monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1418045888993-VN6JRB2DF78WTGSTTQK1/image-asset.png Commentary - Should we really worry about currency wars? Source: BIS and FRED https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1418045981336-0CQHCT251W4CAKR6F8C8/image-asset.png Commentary - Should we really worry about currency wars? Source: BIS and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/12/1/your-friend-fred monthly 0.5 2014-12-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1417443679757-EXSDNC805EJSQZJ5U6J1/image-asset.png Commentary - Your Friend FRED Sources: BEA, Federal Reserve, and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/11/24/the-right-direction monthly 0.5 2014-11-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1416836055084-7IWYK4HDL6YR25XQQP8P/image-asset.png Commentary - The right direction https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/11/17/its-the-leverage-stupid monthly 0.5 2014-11-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1416231927586-OJ21XWOF8DGWHCRKWXA8/image-asset.png Commentary - It's the leverage, stupid! Sources: FRED and Yahoo Finance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1416232017739-4CERIC9SY95B8H3P1PUQ/Real+Estate.png Commentary - It's the leverage, stupid! Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.8 release. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/11/10/monetary-policy-a-lesson-learned monthly 0.5 2014-11-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1415625255109-6LBCPQ3JC9KZZO85ZCM3/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary Policy: A Lesson Learned Sources: Federal Reserve and Friedman and Schwartz, A Monetary HIstory of the United States. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1415625342089-GOV05XRYC3PI4DOE3M6S/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary Policy: A Lesson Learned Sources: Federal Reserve and Friedman and Schwartz, A Monetary HIstory of the United States. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/11/3/a-primer-on-bank-capital monthly 0.5 2018-02-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1415021156829-8F41Z1523Q6MC722EMU8/image-asset.png Commentary - A Primer on Bank Capital https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1415020556152-DHABLMTPLLHAS4SM44YJ/image-asset.png Commentary - A Primer on Bank Capital Source: European Central Bank, Aggregate Report on the Comprehensive Assessment, October 2014, page 133. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/10/27/the-importance-of-being-europe monthly 0.5 2014-10-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1414412604180-HF7F18DCPFSYMKOHGECG/image-asset.png Commentary - The Importance of Being Europe Source: Eurobarometer. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/10/21/rolling-the-dice-again monthly 0.5 2014-10-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1413896049945-Z51VAZG5EZ10FTIC7O6M/image-asset.png Commentary - Rolling the dice, again Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/10/20/how-big-should-central-bank-balance-sheets-be monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1413807862780-CWZR1X6DILR9QUXT6YPN/Central+bank+asset.png Commentary - How big should central bank balance sheets be? Source: National central banks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1413808011613-AZRKV21B1FI131W1EI4Q/image-asset.png Commentary - How big should central bank balance sheets be? Sources: National central banks and IMF. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1413808059578-Q29XSUHAD6AJSDP7SD4X/image-asset.png Commentary - How big should central bank balance sheets be? Sources: National central banks and IMF. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/10/13/living-wills-or-phoenix-plans-making-sure-banks-can-rise-from-their-ashes monthly 0.5 2014-10-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1413203009708-CGYNSQ3O6R53BE4SIUO8/image-asset.png Commentary - Living Wills or Phoenix Plans: Making sure banks can rise from their ashes Source: Avraham et al. “A Structural View of U.S. Bank Holding Companies,” FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2012. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/10/6/making-finance-safe monthly 0.5 2014-10-06 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/9/29/the-dollar-is-now-everyones-problem monthly 0.5 2014-09-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1411996024463-2S66OXQT72W07MYPS14U/image-asset.png Commentary - The dollar is now everyone's problem Source: FRB https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/9/25/investing-in-college monthly 0.5 2014-09-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1411648053681-PIQMZ28AY6YNRD3URYTB/image-asset.png Commentary - Investing in College Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/9/22/ecb-and-fed-separated-at-birth monthly 0.5 2014-09-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1411388554898-BI4QVWO2TBQQQ5E2UD34/image-asset.png Commentary - ECB and Fed: Separated at Birth? Sources: ECB, FRB, and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/9/18/in-search-of-better-credit-assessments monthly 0.5 2014-09-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1411043118792-K47C7SE479GM70BPQFOI/image-asset.png Commentary - In Search of Better Credit Assessments Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2009, Chapter 2, Figure 2.12. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/9/15/liquidity-regulation monthly 0.5 2014-09-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1410795386583-3ZMJT7POWYFHFPOYX3BW/image-asset.png Commentary - Liquidity Regulation https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1410795490765-7QCR23PUUF9IPFI7I3YS/image-asset.png Commentary - Liquidity Regulation Source: SIFMA and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/9/8/the-yin-and-the-yang-of-shadow-banking-in-china monthly 0.5 2014-09-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1410178945945-ZV1KCCJSLUYSO1119MK5/image-asset.png Commentary - The Yin and the Yang of Shadow Banking in China Source: World Bank. Savings are calculated as gross national income less total consumption, plus net transfers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1410179762758-17ILR7XPJDX4VF7PAI99/image-asset.png Commentary - The Yin and the Yang of Shadow Banking in China Source: BIS. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/9/2/who-does-macropru-for-nonbanks monthly 0.5 2014-09-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1409659932973-2CU1MMG413OMM7PXCGLA/image-asset.png Commentary - Who does macropru for nonbanks? FCA Financial Conduct Authority. FPC Financial Policy Committee. MPC Monetary Policy Committee. PRA Prudential Regulation Authority. Source: P Tucker, S Hall and A Pattani, “Macroprudential policy at the Bank of England,” Quarterly Bulletin of the Bank of England, 2013 Q3, p 192-200. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/28/chinas-capital-controls-and-the-exchange-rate-regime monthly 0.5 2014-08-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1409227793149-F7PFLU70WRRISJRLC0GV/image-asset.png Commentary - China's Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate Regime Source: Bloomberg (codes CCDRC and CGDRC) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/25/post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc monthly 0.5 2014-08-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1408969203124-OKV9F70ERIRIPHHFINS4/image-asset.png Commentary - Post hoc, ergo propter hoc? Note: Shaded areas denote U.S. recessions. Sources: NASA and NBER. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1408969307127-XXEXXU0ZQUTBN9UQW95Y/image-asset.png Commentary - Post hoc, ergo propter hoc? Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Sources: Shiller website and NBER. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/21/measuring-inflation-signal-extraction-redux monthly 0.5 2014-08-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1408623060530-G1MLA87W9UR3KJJLHE84/image-asset.png Commentary - Measuring inflation: Signal extraction redux https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1408623165685-SR7ZAWP49ZC9ZF3IMRMA/image-asset.png Commentary - Measuring inflation: Signal extraction redux Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on FRED https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/18/to-rmb-or-not-to-rmb-lessons-from-currency-history monthly 0.5 2014-08-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1408357450078-9TMA5YMLQSNRNW2X64PD/image-asset.png Commentary - To RMB or not to RMB? Lessons from Currency History Source: World Bank. Data through 2013. Authors' simulation from 2014 assumes annual growth rate of 6.5% for China and 2.3% for the United States. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1408357603032-BL3ATO6BLG9YGV44MJZZ/image-asset.png Commentary - To RMB or not to RMB? Lessons from Currency History Source SWIFT RMB tracker press releases, various issues. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1408357827506-DHDK0KKOM8GFN9OXQ8VN/image-asset.png Commentary - To RMB or not to RMB? Lessons from Currency History Source: Maddison website. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/13/do-us-households-benefit-from-the-great-moderation monthly 0.5 2014-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1407957244561-7PCSKLD7FXV82879BS1S/image-asset.png Commentary - Do U.S. Households Benefit from the Great Moderation? Source: FRED https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1407957318523-OBPT857CTFC497SXFIVI/image-asset.png Commentary - Do U.S. Households Benefit from the Great Moderation? Source: Dynan, Elmendorf and Sichel, "The Evolution of Household Income Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, December 2012. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/11/how-much-is-our-distant-future-worth monthly 0.5 2014-08-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1407758896081-MR5HLD98JZK5MKORBD23/Blog.png Commentary - How much is our distant future worth? https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/7/should-i-buy-or-should-i-sell monthly 0.5 2014-08-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1407413321680-Q1GB6JLG2EYSSBW41EKY/image-asset.png Commentary - Should I buy or should I sell? Source: Robert Shiller website and authors’ calculations and update. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/8/4/has-paper-money-outlived-its-purpose monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1407154214577-MMM75PAVG62SGBGKHQ0O/image-asset.png Commentary - Has paper money outlived its purpose? Source: F Schneider, A Buehn and C E Montenegro, “Shadow Economies All over the World New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007,” World Bank Research Working Paper No. 5356, July 2010. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/31/inflation-expectations-how-credibility-pays-off monthly 0.5 2014-07-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1406808977022-XQDTTK4G91AT8SWAZ2M5/image-asset.png Commentary - Inflation Expectations: How Credibility Pays Off Source: FRB and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1406809025576-0BFQQENVAAVYWFY2XGM8/Line.png Commentary - Inflation Expectations: How Credibility Pays Off Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/28/regulating-money-market-mutual-funds-an-update monthly 0.5 2014-07-28 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/24/how-big-can-the-us-current-account-stay monthly 0.5 2014-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1406203734503-PMGY6EQMRZ7CJR6KIFSQ/image-asset.png Commentary - How big can the U.S. current account stay? Source: OECD. Data are from FRED (BPBLTT01USQ188S) from 1980 to 1Q 2014. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1406204984573-OVSGKGCK7QPW0AXOTMC2/image-asset.png Commentary - How big can the U.S. current account stay? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1406203793018-NSKGR6NWJRFRYCAXACEZ/image-asset.png Commentary - How big can the U.S. current account stay? Sources: Data on reserves is total reserves from the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS), and GDP is from the IMF World Economic Outlook Database. Data is for year 2012. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1406203860287-54F2ORCTGE7C1XIJRRZ3/image-asset.png Commentary - How big can the U.S. current account stay? Source: International Monetary Fund. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1406205107011-UYKPPKYUS23SU2JVE8ZQ/image-asset.png Commentary - How big can the U.S. current account stay? https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/21/truth-or-consequences-ponzi-schemes-and-other-frauds monthly 0.5 2014-07-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1405955485910-63GBU3FU1BO9RIKNJN7T/Credit.png Commentary - Truth or consequences: Ponzi schemes and other frauds Note: Each dot represents a country. Sources: Global Financial Development Database, World Bank and Transparency International. All data is for 2010. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/17/debt-great-recession-and-the-awful-recovery monthly 0.5 2014-07-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1405599344075-5ZA510WTSU8O8FHEJ2EK/image-asset.png Commentary - Debt, Great Recession and the Awful Recovery Source: BEA and FRED https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/14/the-vix-the-only-thing-to-fear-is-the-lack-of-fear-itself monthly 0.5 2014-07-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1405341243559-8O3H33AXI3N38FM1VKAG/image-asset.png Commentary - The VIX: The only thing to fear is the lack of fear itself Source: CBOE. FRED codes are VXDCLS (DJIA) and VIXCLS (VIX), respectively. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/10/is-the-fed-behind-the-curve monthly 0.5 2014-07-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404994874826-IG3MF9HHD08AGJLNGN5U/image-asset.png Commentary - Is the Fed Behind the Curve? Note: The modified Taylor rule shown is R = r + Inflation + 0.5x(Inflation – 2) – (Ut – U*), where: (1) R is the federal funds rate; (2) r is the equilibrium real interest rate (set to 1.75 in line with the midpoint of FOMC members’ projections for the federal funds rate and the inflation rate in the longer run); (3) inflation is measured by the annual percent change of the price index of personal consumption expenditures; (4) Ut is the unemployment rate; and (5) U* is the equilibrium unemployment rate (set to 5.35% in line with the midpoint of FOMC members’ projections for the longer run). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404994938195-GXIZI534FI5NI07A3J9D/image-asset.png Commentary - Is the Fed Behind the Curve? Sources: FRB Summary of Economic Projections (June 18, 2014) and CME (July 8, 2014 close) https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/7/monetary-policy-and-financial-stability-never-say-never monthly 0.5 2014-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404736071498-DB42USPSIIOVHYP8M0FW/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Never Say Never Sources: Shiller data set for Irrational Exuberance 2e (real house price), FRB Z.1 household and nonfinancial firm liabilities (FRED codes: CMDEBT and TBSDODNS), and BEA (GDP). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404737768597-RAH9LM9XDIPSDFB3KSP4/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Never Say Never Source: Stern Volatility Lab. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/7/2/gdp-seasons-and-revisions monthly 0.5 2014-07-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404305074155-6XOJAFYEHBYRDOZGYB2G/image-asset.png Commentary - GDP: Seasons and revisions Source: BEA GDP Release Table 8.1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404305221687-41YDYIUCPAS3TKVO7CDB/image-asset.png Commentary - GDP: Seasons and revisions Source: Real-time database of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/30/how-securitization-really-works monthly 0.5 2014-06-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404131519596-H0WUNKRDAEFB6X3DBHH8/image-asset.png Commentary - How securitization really works https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1404131582304-N70IIW28MA4ODVJABJ6A/image-asset.png Commentary - How securitization really works https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/26/reverse-repo-risks monthly 0.5 2014-06-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1403785990891-GESHAI7B0IG51MXLUN7W/image-asset.png Commentary - Reverse Repo Risks Sources: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 and FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/23/growth-and-dynamism-troubling-facts monthly 0.5 2014-06-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1403725986633-3I0TWYUXAGIL9CIFX6FY/image-asset.png Commentary - Growth and dynamism: troubling facts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1403726053937-Q53C2LNEBW6JC4QAHQLE/image-asset.png Commentary - Growth and dynamism: troubling facts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1403726191293-R4QSJ0EOQM6G6RAO4SBT/image-asset.png Commentary - Growth and dynamism: troubling facts https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/19/monetary-policy-target-regimes-inflation-price-level-nominal-gdp-etc monthly 0.5 2014-06-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1403178802963-1FCGHO2PFD827QF82384/PCE.png Commentary - Monetary policy target regimes: inflation, price level, nominal GDP, etc. Sources: BEA, FRED, and authors' calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1403178947704-VIG0NKBYX8GXETM5ZY0Z/image-asset.png Commentary - Monetary policy target regimes: inflation, price level, nominal GDP, etc. Sources: BEA, FRED, and authors' calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/16/time-varying-capital-requirements-rules-vs-discretion-again monthly 0.5 2014-06-16 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/12/an-update-on-target2-balances-limited-progress monthly 0.5 2014-06-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1402575618861-J0VU6R0VV1BP057JXFR2/image-asset.png Commentary - Update on Target2 Balances: Limited progress Source: Eurostat. Note: The Greek yield spread peaked at more than 2700 basis points in early 2012. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1402575723308-U1I4YJI0GKGHAW7UVHEP/image-asset.png Commentary - Update on Target2 Balances: Limited progress https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1402576171804-W9D9QCSXBAJ4YW9H2U97/image-asset.png Commentary - Update on Target2 Balances: Limited progress https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/9/bubble-bubble-toil-and-trouble-whats-a-policymaker-to-do monthly 0.5 2014-06-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1402322630862-P1AE1CZD60CVR2MQ5IC5/image-asset.png Commentary - Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble: What's a policymaker to do? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1402322763662-IMC3TCHAQP2KHZXFA2WB/image-asset.png Commentary - Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble: What's a policymaker to do?   Source for both charts: Robert Shiller, Dataset for Irrational Exuberance 2e. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/4/the-sec-is-in-the-wrong-business monthly 0.5 2014-06-04 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/6/2/are-big-asset-managers-systemic monthly 0.5 2014-06-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1401714725749-FRXF2KQCQLJF68FYAV7Z/image-asset.png Commentary - Are Big Asset Managers Systemic? Source: Federal Reserve (Z.1 and H.4.1) Note: This post is based partly on comments made by one of us at the FSOC’s May 19 Conference on Asset Management. A video of the conference is available here.   https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/29/trade-repositories-still-far-from-the-risk-map-we-need monthly 0.5 2014-06-03 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/27/economics-helps-people-live-better-lives monthly 0.5 2014-05-28 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/22/a-note-on-the-lender-of-last-resort monthly 0.5 2014-05-22 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/19/bank-capital-requirements-can-we-fix-risk-weighting monthly 0.5 2014-05-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1400505556918-QNJ4YPZX9RP4Z4QSYAI9/image-asset.png Commentary - Bank capital requirements: Can we fix risk-weighting? Source: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme (RCAP) Analysis of risk-weighted assets for credit risk in the banking book, July 2013. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/15/ecb-aqr-nervous-banks-make-banking-safer monthly 0.5 2014-05-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1400180720823-RXHE1Y6L6ULRSBM2W7HS/image-asset.png Commentary - ECB AQR: Nervous Banks Make Banking Safer Sources: Eurostat and EBA. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1400180775696-TP6MWWJ1Z2LUGIH8CKKP/image-asset.png Commentary - ECB AQR: Nervous Banks Make Banking Safer Source: Data are courtesy of the NYU Stern Volatility Lab. Data are country averages of daily data for BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe General (France); Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank (Germany); Intesa San Paolo and Unicredit (Italy); , BBVA and Santander (Spain); Credit Suisse and UBS (Switzerland); and Barclays, RBS, Lloyds, Standard Chartered, and HSBC (UK). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/12/the-ecb-plans-to-ease-but-how monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1399898984162-ACSEZD6SKQARFQFU4DTK/image-asset.png Commentary - The ECB plans to ease, but how? Notes: Solid red line is the official euro-area GDP-weighted average HICP. Dashed lines are the minimum and maximum inflation among individual euro-area countries in each month. The country varies. Source: Eurostat. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/8/bank-of-america-the-challenge-of-unified-accounting monthly 0.5 2014-05-09 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/5/still-riding-the-gse-train monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1399295447900-36FDZRZ12Q1MN2A5YV39/image-asset.png Commentary - Still Riding the GSE Train Source: Table L.218, flow of funds database, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1399295588376-EDKSPOONJ0JALFUZPP18/image-asset.png Commentary - Still Riding the GSE Train Sources: FRED and Census. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/5/1/form-vs-function-regulating-money-market-funds monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/4/28/narrow-banks-wont-stop-bank-runs monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/4/24/sources-of-growth-large-and-small-new-and-old monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/4/21/ecb-minute-by-minute monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/4/16/data-big-and-small monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/4/14/central-bank-money-without-inflation monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/4/9/an-idiots-guide-to-high-frequency-trading-hft monthly 0.5 2014-06-03 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/3/28/financial-exposure-to-russia monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1396015551909-6OH76ZRDC4AT0HM82RGG/image-asset.jpeg Commentary - Financial Exposure to Russia BIS Table 9E https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/3/27/the-financial-stability-monetary-policy-nexus monthly 0.5 2014-05-07 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/3/24/reforming-tri-party-repo monthly 0.5 2014-03-24 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/3/11/can-serious-financial-disruptions-arise-without-leverage monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/3/10/capital-regulation-its-complicated monthly 0.5 2014-04-14 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/2/27/inflation-targeting-better-than-bretton-woods monthly 0.5 2014-02-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1393507376812-3OBS9K8J0LIJ7JPY026Y/Bretton+Woods+Graph.png Commentary - Inflation Targeting: Better than Bretton Woods Countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Portugal, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States All countries report data to the OECD Main Economic Indicators Starting with 1955, except for Norway with starts in 1960. Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators through FRED https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/2/21/central-clearing-parties-part-3 monthly 0.5 2014-06-11 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/2/21/central-clearing-parties-part-2 monthly 0.5 2014-06-11 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/2/21/g-20-leaders-vote-for-ccps-what-are-they monthly 0.5 2014-06-11 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/2/18/what-will-the-fed-use-as-its-operating-target monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1392730823196-VBFV0AR7ACTQRXLVQSAG/Federal+Funds+Target+Rate.png Commentary - What will the Fed use as its operating target? https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2014/1/30/what-the-ecb-does-and-what-it-doesnt monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/category/Chap+3 monthly 0.5 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/tag/BBA monthly 0.5 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https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/6a2cb607-b133-4a83-98a5-98e14171c9d9/Federal+Debt+Ratio.png Primers - Fiscal Dominance: A Primer - Make it stand out Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035, , Figure 6. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/5ffccfcd-0a12-470a-a0b7-b13c1d459b4b/Federal+Debt+Service.png Primers - Fiscal Dominance: A Primer - Make it stand out Note: With the average maturity of federal debt at about six years, we use the five-year Treasury yield as a proxy for the average interest cost. Yet, due to a wave of short-term borrowing during the pandemic, about one-third of marketable federal debt matures in 2025 and again in 2026, adding to interest rate sensitivity (see here). Source: FRED Yield (DGS5) and Interest Outlays (FYOIGDA188S). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2025/8/1/cenral-bank-liquidity-swaps-a-primer monthly 0.5 2025-08-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/839edc05-e2ab-4b73-bbda-f32a3d80c3b6/Figure+1+Liabilities.png Primers - Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: A Primer - Make it stand out Source: An updated version of Graph 8B in McGuire, von Peter and Zhu, courtesy of Patrick McGuire, Goetz von Peter and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/0ef2e05f-ed98-4468-bb0a-30a197175160/Figure+2+Swaps.png Primers - Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: A Primer - Make it stand out Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve H.4.1, US Treasury International Capital data, and the BIS Locational Banking Statistics, Table A.8. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2022/7/31/no-recession-yet monthly 0.5 2025-11-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/f0e31431-0187-46d2-b284-90b866c8e089/Recession+Indicators.png Primers - No Recession . . . Yet - Make it stand out Notes: Personal income becomes available in 1959, manufacturing and trade sales in 1967, and PCE in 2002. The other indicators are available from 1950. GDI is available through 1Q 2022 and manufacturing and trade sales through May 2022. The other indicators are available through the first half of 2022. Sources: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, NBER BCDC, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/70a9bc82-7570-4b1a-8dd8-a69b3bbe6b78/Employment+Ratio+Change+in+Recessions.png Primers - No Recession . . . Yet - Make it stand out Source: BLS, NBER BCDC and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2022/5/13/crypto-assets-and-decentralized-finance-a-primer monthly 0.5 2022-05-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/a1691c3b-8d35-4231-865d-f3bbfabc9979/DeFi+Stack.png Primers - Crypto-assets and Decentralized Finance: A Primer - Make it stand out Note: This diagram is a simplification of the IOSCO four-layer DeFi stack. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/9b33d233-ce44-4866-b31b-647bd821c3cd/TVL.png Primers - Crypto-assets and Decentralized Finance: A Primer - Make it stand out Source: Defi Llama. The figure uses data downloaded on 13 May 2022. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2022/4/4/a-primer-on-private-sector-balance-sheets monthly 0.5 2022-05-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/35df190e-b501-4e2e-8270-09a5f3d87d78/Table+1+US+Households.png Primers - A Primer on Private Sector Balance Sheets - Make it stand out Source: Table B.101 of the Financial Accounts of the United States, Federal Reserve Board Release Z.1, fourth quarter 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/5a134153-a281-4f58-85a8-f9bb6a53dc45/Table+2+Nonfinancial+firms.png Primers - A Primer on Private Sector Balance Sheets - Make it stand out Source: Sum of entries in Tables B.103 and B.104 of the Financial Accounts of the United States, Federal Reserve Board Release Z.1, fourth quarter 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/ebf7fc84-fd28-40e4-a9c2-bb6f8d1b6923/Table+3+Banks.png Primers - A Primer on Private Sector Balance Sheets - Make it stand out Note: The table excludes nonfinancial assets, which tend to be small. For example, for JP Morgan Chase, in 2021, property, plant and equipment accounted for less than 1% of total assets. Source: Table 2 of Federal Reserve Release H.8, March 2022. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/d370d3fa-3bf3-4099-acb4-7e119869e5bc/Table+4+Lehman.png Primers - A Primer on Private Sector Balance Sheets - Make it stand out Source: Figure 5, Morris and Shin (2008). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2021/10/18/stagflation-a-primer monthly 0.5 2021-10-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1634546844411-6BPTPUZSJU96K7YUR818/Inflation+and+Growth.png Primers - Stagflation: A Primer - Make it stand out Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1634546909319-BDYLAO5MUL1ZVMSERLJD/Recession+table.png Primers - Stagflation: A Primer - Make it stand out Note: Inflation is the 12-month percent change in the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Business cycle peaks and troughs are from the NBER. Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2019/11/30/negative-nominal-interest-rates-a-primer monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1575140402217-QIKRU0P13DSB3RVK6RJV/RealRates.png Primers - Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer Note: The real rate subtracts past 12-month inflation from the current nominal rate. This implies that expected inflation equals actual inflation. Sources: Bundesbank, OECD and FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1575140509731-M0IDL20X0R7XV8VHUKX4/ShortTermRates.png Primers - Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1575140560767-U0ZZT4DF0Y47NLE73NZ1/LTBondYields.png Primers - Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer Source: FRED. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1575140650356-TQ71HTIQBV79JFL5VSE0/Present+Value+Equation.png Primers - Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1575140701368-3KZQQ7M1T13WFSAFS7TG/PresentValueBond.png Primers - Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer Source: Authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1575141072919-5WJKIFHDKFBSB7VV0MTQ/Present+Value+Equation.png Primers - Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2018/10/7/inflation-and-price-measurement-a-primer monthly 0.5 2018-10-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1538961957897-V413K3B5IUPUE50CA0EP/Inflation+Primer.png Primers - Inflation and Price Measurement: A Primer Source: Table 5, Moulton (2018). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2018/6/12/fiscal-sustainability-a-primer monthly 0.5 2018-07-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528831643548-AKOSY385HU7HJN7YARMW/Debt+Ratios+and+Premia.png Primers - Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer Note: The bars show BIS-reporting countries ranked by their 2017 debt ratios (left scale). The market risk premia (blue diamonds, right scale) are the average gap between the safe rate of return on government debt and the economic growth rate between 1980 and 2015. Sources: BIS credit to the government sector (nominal value) for government debt and Jordà et al (Tables 11 and 12) for the components of the market risk premia. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528894760007-LJEO3HP9CVORM7EQVMW7/Inequality+condition+Small.png Primers - Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528831768701-2JT2S4CETMCSW2PMACTV/Sustainability+Table.png Primers - Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer Note: The number in each cell corresponds to the minimum primary surplus-to-GDP ratio sufficient to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio at each combination of the debt-to-GDP ratio (column) and market risk premium (row). Source: Authors’ calculations based on steady-state fiscal condition provided in text. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528831928296-U4OFE8G68QWELDWN1SSA/Debt+Variables+Table.png Primers - Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528893674512-Z4R0B08DET98FB7S5ZAB/Appendix+Part+1.png Primers - Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528893695027-GWSLZWZD3T67DD6M3EVK/Appendix+Part+2.png Primers - Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1528893725608-M1EKHZZ57JJX9QVPZC2S/Appendix+Part+3.png Primers - Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2018/6/24/sudden-stops-a-primer-on-balance-of-payments-crises monthly 0.5 2018-06-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853526306-M44QAY9HYU9IHLSLFFER/S+MINUS+I+EQUALS+NX.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853595465-EXZFJ5JNUWRVM09LI189/Number+of+Sudden+Stops.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises Source: Based on Appendix A in Eichengreen and Gupta, Managing Sudden Stops. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853644564-X869CC91JA899SYAZKTB/ASEAN+5.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises Note: The ASEAN-5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Source: IMF WEO database. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853687411-YZ3N3194X20F7CJBBQJX/Euro+Periphery+Current+Account.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises Note: The periphery includes Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Source: IMF WEO database and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853733327-4SI92T6PTO777TERQWIK/Target2+Financing.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises Note: The black diamonds represent the net flows. Source: Based on Table 3 in Higgins and Klitgaard and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853776498-FZXUZDWI8YTIXYJPFE48/Table+of+Variables.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853819616-J30K3DBKJYVZG3QSXR30/Equation+One.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853851568-PEAQ1BBNTHHJDNNDHM80/Equation+Two.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853907091-X9AQ0XH7PKO9ZVWDIZ45/Equation+Three.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853938757-3UYMN95JAEHCCRVS9C6F/Equation+Four.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1529853973572-QWMKCXK512MHL2PBW1EZ/Equation+Five.png Primers - Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2018/5/13/finance-and-the-blockchain-a-primer monthly 0.5 2018-05-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1526235567797-A7IIQMXWPLUGUGNAOGAF/Nonfinancial+examples.png Primers - Finance and the Blockchain: A Primer *Potential implementations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1526235623771-NZ58Q8LXNMANX9BCPKLS/Financial+examples.png Primers - Finance and the Blockchain: A Primer Note: CFPB is the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2018/2/11/understanding-bank-capital-a-primer monthly 0.5 2018-02-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1518380698531-1AJY0V83OWE5O1E51Q9G/SimpleBank.png Primers - Understanding Bank Capital: A Primer Source: FRED (based on Federal Reserve Board H.8 for U.S. Commercial Banks, December 2017). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1518380761789-BGM2GEB8YE3P42T7ISRY/Global+Cap+Index.png Primers - Understanding Bank Capital: A Primer Note: The 2012 and 2017 measures for Basel Risk-Weighted Assets were calculated under Basel I and Basel III standards, respectively. Source: FDIC Global Capital Index (2Q 2012 and 2Q 2017). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2018/1/28/time-consistency-a-primer monthly 0.5 2018-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1517184789569-7BXGIDAUMRY95KZ73LL1/Time+Consistency.png Primers - Time Consistency: A Primer Sources: FRED and Livingston Survey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2017/12/17/free-riding-in-finance-a-primer monthly 0.5 2017-12-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1513568601440-L9DRLU4OQ2VAB5SCB60B/Public+goods+v5.png Primers - Free Riding in Finance: A Primer Source: Authors; inspired by Table 18.1, Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok in Modern Principles of Economics, and by the definition matrix in Wikipedia. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1513570810008-Z7BN6DPAMWBP86BS6NN7/CustodianGame.png Primers - Free Riding in Finance: A Primer Note: Yellow highlights free riding. Orange highlights the equilibrium outcome. Source: Inspired by Table 35.1 in Hal R. Varian, Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach, 6th Edition, 2003. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2017/9/24/moral-hazard-a-primer monthly 0.5 2017-10-02 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2017/8/13/adverse-selection-a-primer monthly 0.5 2017-08-15 https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2017/6/4/labors-declining-share-a-primer monthly 0.5 2017-08-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1496616003157-FUSG8HW12CYKAEAC48TG/image-asset.png Primers - Labor's Declining Share: A Primer Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1496616103857-0KMGXRQW8LK2C6S9F5AH/image-asset.png Primers - Labor's Declining Share: A Primer Source: Table 1 in Michael D. Giandrea and Shawn A. Sprague, BLS Monthly Labor Review, February 2017. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1496616174827-U9AHAI7UHVZB7TLILFD6/image-asset.png Primers - Labor's Declining Share: A Primer Note: Red dot denotes United States. Source: Penn World Table 9.0 and FRED. In a few cases, the 2014 observation is from 2013 (the latest available). https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2017/5/29/the-phillips-curve-a-primer monthly 0.5 2017-08-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1496056690568-PSTAV775E2Y0WUTV9UAF/image-asset.png Primers - The Phillips Curve: A Primer Source: FRED. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2017/1/16/gdp-linked-bonds-a-primer monthly 0.5 2017-08-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1484573607045-JWWER7XQ3WJ8Q86SYNCZ/image-asset.png Primers - GDP-linked Bonds: A Primer Note: GDP readings are December vintage for the second quarter of the year. So, for 1 Jan 2015, the GDP shown is the December 2014 release for the second quarter of 2014. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1484573669554-AAO91MW2RP1Y96A67NBY/image-asset.png Primers - GDP-linked Bonds: A Primer Note: Revisions are measured as the difference between the one-quarter seasonally adjusted growth at an annual rate measured from the third release (normally three months after the end of the quarter) to the release using the current value. Each bin contains the fraction of 198 quarters with growth revisions that are in the specified range. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and authors’ calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1484573719795-KU21K4037GTL12V2DIUL/image-asset.png Primers - GDP-linked Bonds: A Primer Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and authors’ calculations. https://www.moneyandbanking.com/primers/2016/11/7/a-primer-on-securities-lending monthly 0.5 2017-08-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1478525623301-2FMFKAQ5JA26VMBFASTZ/image-asset.png Primers - A Primer on Securities Lending Source: Foley-Fisher, Narajabad and Verani (2016), Figure 4. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1478525688766-W6PVIPSNYIZT3YZ7NTK3/image-asset.png Primers - A Primer on Securities Lending Source: Keane (2013). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52cdc300e4b012a81d31c03d/1478526095427-3L6CS0KLHADFW2LH4RGH/image-asset.png Primers - A Primer on Securities Lending 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