Zombie banks

Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer

Many people find negative interest rates confusing. Why should anyone pay a bank to make a deposit? Why should a bank pay someone to borrow? How can we value an asset with a future cash flow when the interest rate is negative?

Policymakers also wonder whether the effects of negative interest rates on the economy are favorable or unfavorable. Do negative interest rates help central banks achieve price stability by stimulating economic activity? Do negative rates spur banks to make more good loans or to evergreen bad ones? Will borrowers and banks take on too much risk because they can fund investments at a negative rate? Will households reduce their saving rate because the return is so low, or raise it because low returns leave them farther from their wealth target? Will negative rates influence the ability of pension funds, insurance companies and governments to make good on their long-term promises to future retirees?

In this primer, we examine these questions, starting with key facts about negative nominal interest rates. Our conclusion: there is little magic about having a slightly negative, as opposed to slightly positive interest rates. Thus, much of the criticism of persistently negative nominal interest rates applies similarly to very low, but positive rates. That said, financial system frictions limit the favorable impact from modestly negative nominal rates, but our experience with them remains limited. Given the likely need for unconventional policy tools to address the next recession, learning more about the benefits and costs of negative nominal interest rates is a high priority….

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Bank Capital and Monetary Policy

Capital—the excess of assets over liabilities—determines solvency, so policymakers are used to thinking of it as a tool for keeping banks and the banking system safe. House Financial Services Chair Hensarling’s proposal to allow banks to opt for a simple capital standard that would substitute for other regulatory oversight is just the most recent example.

But bank capital also is a critical factor in the transmission of monetary policy. When central banks ease, their actions are intended to encourage banks to lend and firms to borrow.  And, to put it simply: healthy banks lend to healthy firms, while weak banks lend to weak firms (if at all)....

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